Inflation and Real Growth in a Small Open Economy — The Swiss Case

A small model of the output market, based on Phillips-curve analysis, is developed, showing the responses of demanders and suppliers to three categories of exogenous shocks - monetary, fiscal and foreign. The relative importance of the various forces is investigated by econometric methods using annual data for the period 1956 -1975. The deviation of real growth from its trend is mainly influenced by relative changes in the stock of money, real exports and import prices. The first two impulses are also significantly related to inflation. No effects of fiscal policy could be discovered

Wohnungsmarkt und Kreditmärkte

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Trends, Random Walks, and the Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve: Evidence from Six Countries.

Two major empirical results are reported. First, it is shown that time series measuring real activity in major industrialized countries contain nonstationarities of the random walk type. Second, it turns out that the estimated influence of unexpected changes in inflation and monetary growth strongly depends on the chosen approach concerning nonstationarity. The popular assumption of a deterministic time trend proxying for growth generally yields the hypothesized positive coefficients. The influence of nominal surprises, however, becomes indistinguishable from zero if the respective equations are estimated in stationary differences of real activity variables. Copyright 1988 by Ohio State University Press.

Das schweizerische Energiekonzept - ein kritischer Kommentar

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Financial Regulation and Market Forces. Comment

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Die Wirkungen der Fiskalpolitik in der Schweiz. Eine empirische Untersuchung

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