Housing price cycles and prepayment rates of U.S. mortgage pools.

Empirical mortgage prepayment models generally have trouble explaining differences in mortgage prepayment speeds among pools with similar interest rates on the underlying mortgages. In this paper, we model some of the sources of termination heterogeneity across mortgage pools, particularly the role of regional variations in housing prices in generating atypical prepayment speeds. Using a sample of Freddie Mac mortgage pools from 1991-1998, we find evidence that differences in house price dynamics across regions are an important source of between-pool heterogeneity. This finding is then shown to be robust to alternative ways of parameterizing pool heterogeneity in mortgage termination models.Real property ; Mortgages

An Empirical Test of a Contingent Claims Lease Valuation Model

Despite the importance of leases in the US economy, and the existence of several theoretical lease pricing models, there has been little systematic attempt to estimate these models. This paper proposes a simple no-arbitrage based lease pricing model, and estimates it using a large proprietary data set of leases on several property types. We also define a new measure, the Option-Adjusted Lease Spread, or OALS (analogous to an option’s implied volatility, or a mortgage-backed security’s Option-Adjusted Spread), that allows us to compare leases with different maturities and contract terms on a consistent basis. We find sizeable pricing errors that cannot be explained using interest rates, lease maturity, or information on the options embedded in the contracts. This suggests either that there are significant mispricings in the market for real estate leases, or that lease terms depend heavily on unobservable, property-specific characteristics.

Sexual Sterilization of the Mentally Retarded

For more than 50 years, sterilization of mentally retarded persons was an accepted practice in many states as a way to reduce the number of persons born with mental defects. In recent years, the practice has come under heavy challenge, both medically and legally. In the United States between 1907 and 1963, approximately 12,500 sexual sterilizations were performed. In 1970, 27 states had particular grounds on which sterilization could be ordered. As of 1979, only 19 states still had statutes that allowed sterilization for eugenic reasons. This paper examines the history of the sterilization laws and the grounds for invoking sterilization statutes. This paper also examines important court decisions regarding eugenic sterilization laws, the possible causes of mental retardation, and the psychological effects that sterilization may cause. This paper also includes a survey that was designed to measure the attitudes of the respondents regarding the topic of sexual sterilization and the survey results

The Evaluation of Emotion Regulation in Caregivers Referred to a Parent-Training Program

In recent years, emotion regulation has become a topic of particular interest to both clinicians and researchers and has been shown to play a significant role in a variety of behavioral and psychological difficulties in both adults and children (Gratz & Tull, in press). However, parents of children referred for parent training may experience significant difficulty regulating their emotions as they attempt to cope with and control their children\u27s misbehavior. The present study explored the role of caregiver emotion regulation in parent training by attempting to understand if (1) parents and children who are referred for parent training have difficulty with emotion regulation, and (2) recognize the degree to which these difficulties correlate with levels of negative interactions, parental stress, children\u27s behavior problems and children\u27s emotion regulation at the beginning of treatment. Parents of children referred for parent training completed self-report measures of caregiver and child emotion regulation, child behavior problems and parenting stress. Caregiver-child interactions were assessed in three structured play situations in which the frequency of caregiver negative speech and child compliance were coded. Two one sample t-tests followed by a series of bivariate analyses and two multiple regressions were conducted. The current sample of caregivers was not found to be more emotionally dysregulated than a non-referred sample of adults. However, the current sample of children was found to display more negative emotions, possess greater emotional lability (t(31) = 6.562, p = .104) and demonstrate less emotion regulation (t(31) = -3.684, p = .001) as compared to a typical sample of children. Caregiver emotion dysregulation was not found to significantly correlate with caregiver negative talk across all three DPICS situations. However, caregiver emotion dysregulation was found to be positively and significantly correlated with caregiver overall stress (r = .654, p = .000), and total child disruptive behavior problems (r = .512, p = .003). Caregiver emotion dysregulation was not significantly correlated with the frequency of caregiver negative speech or behavioral observations of child compliance. Caregiver emotion dysregulation was not significantly correlated with child emotion regulation. In two multiple regression analyses, parental distress emerged as the only significant predictor of caregiver emotion regulation, while two separate measures of child behavior problems emerged as the only significant predictor of child emotion regulation. Limitations, and suggestions for future research are discussed

Staff-Child Interaction Therapy versus Treatment as Usual in Community-Based Wraparound Services: An Evaluation of Feasibility and Child Behavior Problems

Wraparound services are a well-known, widely implemented community-based model developed to treat children with a variety of severe emotional disturbances (Clark & Clarke, 1996). Although results have demonstrated some positive outcomes (Suter & Bruns, 2009), significant weaknesses have also been noted including negative findings (Bertram, Suter, Bruns & O\u27Rourke, 2011) and a variety of methodological limitations (Suter & Bruns, 2009). States have recently begun to examine the empirical basis of wraparound programs to better understand their implementation and effectiveness (Community Data Roundtable, 2015).;The current study examined the implementation of Staff-Child Interaction Therapy (SCIT), a manualized treatment developed at West Virginia University to treat children between ages 2-9 years with severe behavior problems. Based off of Parent-Child Interaction Therapy (PCIT; McNeil & Hembree-Kigin, 2010), an established, evidence-based practice for young children with disruptive behavior disorders, SCIT was implemented by bachelors-level, community-based wraparound therapists during in-home treatment sessions with their child clients and their primary caregivers. Therapists (SCIT: n = 41; TAU: n = 32) were primarily Caucasian (87.7%) females (84.9%) with 45.15 months of therapy experience. Child clients were primarily male (76.1%) with an average age of 5.44 years. Children were primarily diagnosed with an Autism Spectrum Disorder (n = 44), Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (n = 19), Disruptive Behavior Disorder Not Otherwise Specified (n = 18), Oppositional Defiant Disorder ( n = 16) Conduct Disorder (n = 3), Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (n = 2), Intellectual Disability ( n = 2), and another diagnosis (n = 18). Many children possessed multiple diagnoses.;SCIT staff were trained in a series of three workshops, spaced approximately seven weeks apart, in which the Child Directed Interaction (CDI; relationship building) and Adult Directed Interaction (ADI; discipline) phases of treatment were taught. Workshops included didactics, live role play, quizzes and practice toward mastery of CDI and ADI skills. Implementation of the treatment began following the second workshop. SCIT therapists received consultation calls throughout treatment to promote fidelity. Attention control therapists received three workshops and continued to implement treatment as usual with their clients. Attention control workshops included didactics and discussion of compassion fatigue, vicarious trauma, and workforce turn over. No SCIT skills were taught. Primary caregivers and therapists completed the Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory (ECBI; Eyberg & Pincus, 1999) prior to, during, and following treatment. Qualitative information was gathered on therapists\u27 perceptions of treatment as usual, workshop satisfaction, and SCIT following treatment.;Primary results indicated that parents believed that the intensity of children\u27s behavior problems decreased significantly more for children in the SCIT condition as compared to children in the TAU condition following SCIT implementation (F (1, 33) = 5.135, p = .03). Similarly, a trend toward significance indicated that behavior problems decreased more for children in the SCIT condition as compared to children in the attention control TAU condition (F (1, 37) = 3.69, p = .06 from the therapist\u27s perspective. Large effect sizes for children in the SCIT group were present according to parents and therapists as compared to small to medium effect sizes for children in the attention control group. Additionally, SCIT therapists (n = 19) delivered an average of 7.82 hours of SCIT and an average of 43.39 hours of TAU service to SCIT clients over the 7-week course of treatment. TAU therapists ( n = 32) spent an average of 9.42 hours per week with the client and delivered an average of 65.95 total hours of service over the 7-week course of treatment.;Feasibility analyses indicated that the materials needed for SCIT training would cost approximately {dollar}1,145 per group of eight therapists ({dollar}143.13 per therapist) to implement SCIT over a three-day training. Attrition results indicated that the primary cause of attrition between the SCIT therapists (20.45%) and TAU therapists (21.88%) was therapist withdrawal from the agency. SCIT therapists indicated significantly higher levels of satisfaction with trainings as compared to attention control therapists (t (69) = 5.98, p \u3c .01). Qualitatively, therapists in both groups indicated that workshop structure, workshop material, and instructor qualities were particular strengths of the workshops. Specifically, SCIT therapists noted that the length of workshops, speed of instruction, and communication regarding training content between the research team and the agency. TAU therapists indicated the following themes when discussing treatment as usual: BHRS policies in conflict with expected treatment outcomes and inconsistency across BHRS treatment resulting in high levels of job stress and therapist turnover.;Results indicated that SCIT may be a more effective, cost-effective intervention for children presenting to wraparound services with disruptive behaviors as compared to wraparound services as usual. Additionally, SCIT therapists demonstrated high rates of acceptability as compared to TAU as SCIT therapists reported a highly positive impact of the short-term intervention on children\u27s behavior and therapist\u27s skills.;Limitations of the current study included high levels of attrition, small sample size, a lack of complete randomization, and a variety of policy-level challenges. Additional research is needed to better understand the impact of SCIT as compared to treatment as usual on children in wraparound services. Further work should focus on improving the effectiveness of wraparound by increasing the quality of therapist training, integrating more components of evidence-based intervention into wraparound services, and decreasing therapist turn over

CMBS Subordination, Ratings Inflation, and the Crisis of 2007-2009

This paper analyzes the performance of the commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) market before and during the recent financial crisis. Using a comprehensive sample of CMBS deals from 1996 to 2008, we show that (unlike the residential mortgage market) the loans underlying CMBS did not significantly change their characteristics during this period, commercial lenders did not change the way they priced a given loan, defaults remained in line with their levels during the entire 1970s and 1980s and, overall, the CMBS and CMBX markets performed as normal during the financial crisis (at least by the standards of other recent market downturns). We show that the recent collapse of the CMBS market was caused primarily by the rating agencies allowing subordination levels to fall to levels that provided insufficient protection to supposedly "safe" tranches. This ratings inflation in turn allowed financial firms to engage in ratings arbitrage.

Estimation of Employee Stock Option Exercise Rates

This paper is the first to perform a comprehensive estimation of employee stock option exercise behavior and option cost to firms. We develop a GMM-based methodology, robust to heteroskedasticity and correlation across exercises, for estimating the rate of voluntary option exercise as a function of the stock price path and of various firm and option holder characteristics. We use it to estimate an exercise function from a sample of 870,624 employee-option grants at 47 publicly-traded firms between 1980-2005, finding that volatility has a counterintuitive effect, and that men exercise faster than women. We also estimate the rate of employment termination, which determines forfeitures, cancellations, and forced exercises. We use the estimated exercise and termination functions in a simulation based valuation model to analyze the effect of different firm and option holder characteristics on option value, and show that the true value of these options can differ substantially from values calculated using the usual FASB approximation