Seasonality in the Irish dairy processing industry

The dairy landscape in the Republic of Ireland is characterized by pastoral spring-calving systems and a bell-shaped milk production curve. This seasonality at producer level initiates various implications at processor level, such as poor utilization of plant capacity off-peak season, a requirement for seasonal labour management and limited product options in autumn and winter months due to the properties of late-lactation milk. An optimization model was developed to analyze the impact of production seasonality and quota removal on the Irish dairy processing industry in terms of maximum processor gross surplus, the optimum product mix and the marginal values of the milk solids fat, protein and lactose. Processor gross surplus was specified as a function of product sales revenue, less variable costs of collecting and processing raw milk and general overhead (fixed) costs. 5 scenarios with differing milk intake curves were examined whereby a flatter intake curve incurred less monthly variation in the marginal producer milk price, capacity utilization and product mix as well as a higher surplus as compared to more seasonal patterns. However, an isolated consideration of financial indicators at processor level disregards key characteristics of Irish grass-based seasonal milk production and producer-processor interdependencies. It was therefore concluded that a broader modelling approach integrating both the producer and the processor perspectives is desirable for more holistic analysis of sector-wide implications.Dairy processing, seasonality, milk quota abolition, processor profit, product mix, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries,

Comparison of Different Studies to Analyse Adaptation on Dairy Farms

This paper compares and contrasts a number of farm-level modeling studies published in the academic literature. All of the studies examined adaptation on EU dairy farms in response to developments in agricultural policy and/or environmental legislation. The studies are compared on the basis of their respective aims, model structure, results and conclusions. Having reviewed the models and their application, the discussion section of the paper considers strengths and weaknesses of the studies and following from that it considers possible future developments in farm-level response modeling. The relevance and application of such developments in the context of an analytical study of adaptation in Irish dairy farms is discussed.Farm Management, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

“Waiting for Godot”- Restructuring on Small Family Farms

This paper examines the extent to which favourable off-farm labour market conditions coupled with growth in land values have contributed to the observed resilience of small scale family farms. We use data from Northern Ireland and employ farm household optimisation models to analyse household decision making processes that contribute to the observed inertia in farm structure. The analysis indicates that farm household behaviour is influenced not just by current farm income, but also expected capital asset returns. Increased wealth, associated with continuing land ownership, gives rise to the proposition that the link between off-farm incomes, increased land values and remaining in farming may be associated with farmers pursuing wealth maximizing objectives, whilst still maintaining a rural way of life. Alongside increased wealth through land ownership the farm household model quantifies the importance of off-farm income removing the pressure from farming income to fund all family consumption needs. This enables households to sustain low-income farming activities in order to pursue other objectives such as wealth management (including tax efficient transfer of wealth) and lifestyle. Consequently, the results indicate that the survival of small-scale family farms may be much less sensitive to agricultural support policies than has been commonly suggested. In an extension that explores the effects of the recent economic turbulence due to the ‘credit crunch’ we find that the households remain resilient even when subjected to a protracted period of reduced off-farm employment.Farm households, resilience, wealth accumulation, off-farm income, Consumer/Household Economics, Productivity Analysis, C61, Q12,

Valuing the risk associated with willow and miscanthus relative to conventional agricultural systems

The agronomic characteristics of willow and miscanthus make these crops highly susceptible to risk. This is particularly true in a country such as Ireland which has limited experience in the production of these crops. Issues such as soil and climate suitability have as yet to be resolved. The lengthy production lifespan of energy crops only serve to heighten the level of risk that affects key variables. The uncertainty surrounding the risk variables involved in producing willow and miscanthus, such as the annual yield level and the energy price, make it difficult to accurately calculate the returns of such a project. The returns from willow and miscanthus are compared with those of conventional agricultural enterprises using Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function (SERF). A risk premium is calculated which farmers would need to be compensated with in order for them to be indifferent between their current enterprise and switching to biomass crop production. With the exception of spring barley, a risk premium is required if farmers are to be indifferent between their current enterprise and willow or miscanthus. The value of the risk premium required to entice farmers to switch to miscanthus production is significantly less than that required for willow. This suggests that a greater level of risk is associated with willow than with miscanthus.Biomass, SERF, Risk Premium, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

The Evolution of Optical Depth in the Ly-alpha Forest: Evidence Against Reionization at z~6

We examine the evolution of the IGM Ly-alpha optical depth distribution using the transmitted flux probability distribution function (PDF) in a sample of 63 QSOs spanning absorption redshifts 1.7 < z < 5.8. The data are compared to two theoretical optical depth distributions: a model distribution based on the density distribution of Miralda-Escude et al. (2000) (MHR00), and a lognormal distribution. We assume a uniform UV background and an isothermal IGM for the MHR00 model, as has been done in previous works. Under these assumptions, the MHR00 model produces poor fits to the observed flux PDFs at redshifts where the optical depth distribution is well sampled, unless large continuum corrections are applied. However, the lognormal optical depth distribution fits the data at all redshifts with only minor continuum adjustments. We use a simple parametrization for the evolution of the lognormal parameters to calculate the expected mean transmitted flux at z > 5.4. The lognormal optical depth distribution predicts the observed Ly-alpha and Ly-beta effective optical depths at z > 5.7 while simultaneously fitting the mean transmitted flux down to z = 1.6. If the evolution of the lognormal distribution at z < 5 reflects a slowly-evolving density field, temperature, and UV background, then no sudden change in the IGM at z ~ 6 due to late reionization appears necessary. We have used the lognormal optical depth distribution without any assumption about the underlying density field. If the MHR00 density distribution is correct, then a non-uniform UV background and/or IGM temperature may be required to produce the correct flux PDF. We find that an inverse temperature-density relation greatly improves the PDF fits, but with a large scatter in the equation of state index. [Abridged]Comment: 45 pages, 16 figures, submitted to Ap

Electrochemical AFM : understanding the electromaterial-cellular interface

Organic conducting polymers are emerging as an exciting new class of biomaterial that can be used to enhance and control the growth of mammalian cells for tissue regeneration and engineering application

Huygens Titan Probe Trajectory Reconstruction Using Traditional Methods and the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II

On January 14, 2005, ESA's Huygens probe separated from NASA's Cassini spacecraft, entered the Titan atmosphere and landed on its surface. As part of NASA Engineering Safety Center Independent Technical Assessment of the Huygens entry, descent, and landing, and an agreement with ESA, NASA provided results of all EDL analyses and associated findings to the Huygens project team prior to probe entry. In return, NASA was provided the flight data from the probe so that trajectory reconstruction could be done and simulation models assessed. Trajectory reconstruction of the Huygens entry probe at Titan was accomplished using two independent approaches: a traditional method and a POST2-based method. Results from both approaches are discussed in this paper

A demonstration project to test ecological restoration of a pinyon-juniper ecosystem

To test an approach for restoring historical stand densities and increasing plant species diversity of a pinyon-juniper ecosystem, we implemented a demonstration project at two sites (CR and GP) on the Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument in northern Arizona. Historical records indicated that livestock grazing was intensive on the sites beginning in the late 1800s and continuing through the mid 1900s. Repeat aerial photographs (1940 and 1992) indicated recent increases in stand density and encroachment of trees into formerly open areas. Age distributions indicated that the majority of pinyon trees at both sites were less than 100 years of age and juniper establishment appeared to peak in the late 1800s to early 1900s, although some junipers had establishment dates as early as 1700-1725. Pretreatment understory communities were sparse (50% pinyon mortality, which was positively related to tree size and age. The demonstration treatment consisted of thinning small trees (< 25 cm diameter at root collar (DRC)), lopping and scattering thinned trees, and seeding native understory species. Thinning and mortality reduced overstory density from 638 and 832 trees per hectare pretreatment (258 and 337 trees per acre) to 280 and 251 trees per hectare (113 and 102 per acre) posttreatment at CR and GP, respectively. Posttreatment densities were similar to those suggested for the late 1800s by dendrochronological stand reconstructions. Thinning small diameter pinyon increased residual quadratic mean diameter (QMD) at CR and the relative importance of juniper at both sites. Live canopy fuels were reduced by treatment at CR and by thinning plus beetle-related mortality at GP. Although thinning slash was lopped and scattered, woody surface fuels were not significantly different between treated and control units at either site, perhaps due to the small size of thinned trees and the large interspace areas into which slash was scattered. Treatment had no immediate effects on herbaceous cover or species richness, both of which may take more time to develop. Further monitoring will help to clearly evaluate the effectiveness of this treatment for satisfying restoration and conservation goals

Ecosystem restoration: Final report for Assistance Agreement No. PAA 017002, Task Order No. AAW040001

The Restoration of Ecosystem Health in Southwest Forests project was initiated in 1995 to develop the scientific basis for ecological restoration of southwestern forests and woodlands at operational, landscape scales. The majority of the work has been focused in the Greater Mount Trumbull Ecosystem within the Grand Canyon/Parashant National Monument. This innovative collaboration between Department of Interior (BLM, NPS, BIA), state (Northern Arizona University, Game and Fish, State Forestry) has resulted in one of the foremost development and application sites for designing, implementing, monitoring, and evaluating restoration-based hazardous fuel reduction and ecological restoration sites in the Intermountain West. The work described in this report represents an expansion and enhancement of these collaborative partnerships. This report represents work completed in the four project areas: pinyon-juniper restoration, pinyon-juniper herbaceous revegetation, cheatgrass abatement and monitoring, and ponderosa pine restoration