FISCAL FORESIGHT AND INFORMATION FLOWS

Fiscal foresight---the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future---is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. Simple theoretical examples show that foresight produces equilibrium time series with nonfundamental representations, which misalign the agents' and the econometrician's information sets. Economically meaningful shocks to taxes, therefore, cannot generally be extracted from statistical innovations in conventional ways. Econometric analyses that fail to align agents' and the econometrician's information sets can produce distorted inferences about the effects of tax policies. The paper documents the sensitivity of econometric inferences of tax effects to details about how tax information flows into the economy. We show that alternative assumptions about the information flows that give rise to fiscal foresight can reconcile the diverse empirical findings in the literature on anticipated tax changes.

Learning at work and university: Midwifery students and sexual health advice

Concerns about the theory-practice gap and discussion regarding the role of the preregistration programme in preparing registered health care practitioners, are two recurring themes in the literature. This study was carried out in a higher education institution in England and was conducted over a twelve month period. It examined how well the undergraduate programme in midwifery prepares student midwives to provide sexual health advice to women. Using focus groups and questionnaires the study sought the views of three consecutive cohorts of final year midwifery students. The research focused on the students’ experiences of giving advice on contraception and sexual health to women in their care and on how they responded to proposed changes in the programme. Findings indicated that students wanted more practice based educational methods. The study suggests that a model in which theoretical knowledge is reinforced practically, with practice based scenarios and mentor emulation as staging points, would help to develop confident practice

Knowledge and reported confidence of final year midwifery students regarding giving advice on contraception and sexual health

Objective: This study explored the views of three cohorts of final year midwifery students, regarding their confidence in giving advice to women on contraception and sexual health in the postnatal period. The project also investigated knowledge of contraception using a factual quiz, based on clinical scenarios regarding contraception and sexual health in the post-partum period. Design: A mixed method design using qualitative data from focus groups, and mixed qualitative and quantitative data from a paper based questionnaire was used. Setting: The project was carried out in one higher educational institution in England. Findings: Findings demonstrate that expressed confidence varies according to contraceptive method, with most confidence being reported when advising on the male condom. The findings of the factual quiz indicate that students applied theoretical knowledge poorly in a practically oriented context. These findings also indicated that most students limited advice to general advice. Key Conclusions: The paper concludes that midwifery students need more practically oriented education in contraception and sexual health, and that the role of mentors is very important in helping students feel confident when giving advice in this area

A Preliminary Evaluation of Deer Behavior and Nontarget Animal Use Associated with the 4-Poster Tickicide Device on Long Island, New York

The 4-Poster device is a host-applied tick control technology. White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are attracted to devices by whole kernel corn, and when feeding, each animal contacts rollers that apply an acaricide to the animal\u27s head and neck. The blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis), and lone star tick (Amblyomma americanum), are both nuisance and medical pests on Long Island, and deer are a keystone host for both species. By targeting adult ticks where they are most commonly found, deer application is highly effective for concentrating acaricide in key target areas, compared to conventional lawn spraying of pesticides. However, attracting deer to baited stations may have negative impacts including: 1) potential damage to vegetation near the deployed stations in both natural and residential settings; 2) possible increases in deer road crossings, leading to more vehicle collisions; 3) increased deer survivorship or fecundity due to supplemental feeding or reduced tick pressure; and 4) impacts of feeding stations on nontarget wildlife. We are completing the first year of a multi-year project, and report nontarget wildlife use at 4-Poster devices, and deer home ranges for areas with, and without 4-Poster feeding stations. These data will provide management information concerning the collateral effects of deploying 4-Poster devices to reduce tick abundance

The Electronic and Superconducting Properties of Oxygen-Ordered MgB2 compounds of the form Mg2B3Ox

Possible candidates for the Mg2B3Ox nanostructures observed in bulk of polycrystalline MgB2 (Ref.1) have been studied using a combination of Z-contrast imaging, electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) and first-principles calculations. The electronic structures, phonon modes, and electron phonon coupling parameters are calculated for two oxygen-ordered MgB2 compounds of composition Mg2B3O and Mg2B3O2, and compared with those of MgB2. We find that the density of states for both Mg2B3Ox structures show very good agreement with EELS, indicating that they are excellent candidates to explain the observed coherent oxygen precipitates. Incorporation of oxygen reduces the transition temperature and gives calculated TC values of 18.3 K and 1.6 K for Mg2B3O and Mg2B3O2, respectively.Comment: Submitted to PR

Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics

Fiscal foresight---the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future---is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. Simple theoretical examples show that foresight produces equilibrium time series with a non-invertible moving average component, which misaligns the agents' and the econometrician's information sets in estimated VARs. Economically meaningful shocks to taxes, therefore, cannot be extracted from statistical innovations in conventional ways. Econometric analyses that fail to align agents' and the econometrician's information sets can produce distorted inferences about the effects of tax policies. Because non-invertibility arises as a natural outgrowth of the fact that agents' optimal decisions discount future tax obligations, it is likely to be endemic to the study of fiscal policy. In light of the implications of the analytical framework, we evaluate two existing empirical approaches to quantifying the impacts of fiscal foresight. The paper also offers a formal interpretation of the narrative approach to identifying fiscal policy

Dental Hygienists\u27 Perspectives on Four Periodontal Instrument Handle Designs

Problem: Developing new instrument designs to address the ergonomics of instrumentation and to decrease repetitive strain injuries in the dental hygienist is an ongoing area of development. Changing the weight and diameter of instrument handles has been suggested to reduce risk for trauma in the practitioner but minimal research has been conducted to determine design preferences of practicing dental hygienists. Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess dental hygienists opinions on the weight, diameter, balance and maneuverability of four different instrument handles. Methodology: After IRB approval, a convenience sample of 27 practicing dental hygienists from Virginia participated in the study. Four typodonts were set up for each participant with a different instrument randomly assigned for use on each. Subjects scaled first molars coated with artificial calculus using a Columbia 13/14 curet with four commercially available handle designs that varied in weight and diameter: A) 16 grams and 12.7 mm diameter; B) 23 grams and 11.1 mm diameter; C) 21 grams and 7.9 mm diameter and D) 18 grams, and 6.35 mm diameter. Following scaling participants used a 6 item survey to rate their comfort level on a 5-point scale ranging from 1 (very comfortable) to 5 (uncomfortable) with regard to balance, weight, diameter, maneuverability and overall preference. A Friedman test determined significant differences between participants\u27 perceptions. A Wilcoxan signed rank test followed if differences were found. Results: Handle designs had significant effects on dental hygienists\u27 instrument preferences while performing simulated scaling. Results revealed significant differences for participants\u27 preferences concerning diameter (x2(3)=50.584, p=0.000), weight (x2(3)=24.650, p=0.000), balance (x2(3)=69.504, p=0.000) and maneuverability (x2(3)=67.728, p=0.000). When comparing comfort based on diameter grip, results reveal instrument D was least comfortable compared to A, B and C (p=0.000, p=0.000, p=0.000). Instrument A was most comfortable in weight when compared to all other instruments (p=0.008, p=0.000, p=0.000). In regards to balance significant differences were found between instrument A when compared to both C and D (p=0.000, p=0.000), with instrument A having the highest mean score (x=4.7). Finally, instrument A was rated most comfortable for maneuverability (p=0.003, p=0.000, p=0.000). Sixty-three percent of participants preferred instrument A, 26% instrument B, 11% instrument C and none preferred D. Conclusion: When performing simulated scaling, results indicate most participants preferred using a lighter weight, larger diameter instrument handle. Diameter affected preference more than weight. The smallest diameter handle was always ranked the lowest with regards to balance, weight, diameter and maneuverability although it was not the heaviest

Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows

Fiscal foresight -- the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future -- is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. Simple theoretical examples show that foresight produces equilibrium time series with nonfundamental representations, which misalign the agents' and the econometrician's information sets. Economically meaningful shocks to taxes, therefore, cannot generally be extracted from statistical innovations in conventional ways. Econometric analyses that fail to align agents' and the econometrician's information sets can produce distorted inferences about the effects of tax policies. The paper documents the sensitivity of econometric inferences of tax effects to details about how tax information flows into the economy. We show that alternative assumptions about the information flows that give rise to fiscal foresight can reconcile the diverse empirical findings in the literature on anticipated tax changes.

Foresight and Information Flows

News--or foresight--about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non-fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonical theoretical models are taken as data generating processes. Both the nature of equilibria and the inferences about the effects of anticipated tax changes hinge critically on hypothesized tax information flows. Differential U.S. federal tax treatment of municipal and treasury bonds embeds news about future taxes in bond yield spreads. Including that measure of tax news in identified VARs produces substantially different inferences about the macroeconomic impacts of anticipated taxes.

Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus in the Short and Long Runs

This paper contributes to the debate about fiscal multipliers by studying the impacts of government investment in conventional neoclassical growth models. The analysis focuses on two dimensions of fiscal policy that are critical for understanding the effects of government investment: implementation delays associated with building public capital projects and expected future fiscal adjustments to debt-financed spending. Implementation delays can produce small or even negative labor and output responses in the short run; anticipated fiscal financing adjustments matter both quantitatively and qualitatively for long-run growth effects. Taken together, these two dimensions have important implications for the short-run and long-run impacts of fiscal stimulus in the form of higher government infrastructure investment. The analysis is conducted in several models with features relevant for studying government spending, including utility-yielding government consumption, time-to-build for private investment, and government production.