Time series analysis and modeling of dengue and environmental factors in Meta, Colombia from 2014-2019

La dengue est actuellement un problème de santé publique majeur en Colombie avec un fardeau sanitaire et économique important. Les facteurs environnementaux sont connus pour influencer le risque de dengue ; cependant, la forme, l'ampleur et le moment de ces relations ne sont pas clairement établis. L'ampleur et le moment des épidémies de dengue varient selon le lieu. Cette thèse a examiné les composantes temporelles des séries chronologiques hebdomadaires de cas de dengue dans les municipalités de Villavicencio, Castilla la Nueva et Puerto Lopez en Colombie de 2014 à 2019. Il a procédé à l'estimation de la forme et de l'ampleur des associations entre les cas hebdomadaires de dengue et cinq facteurs météorologiques, mesurés chaque semaine, pour chacune des municipalités à l'aide du cadre des modèles non linéaires à décalage distribué avec une distribution binomiale négative. Il a finalement comparé les associations dans les trois municipalités (urbaines, périurbaines et rurales) pour observer si les associations trouvées étaient cohérentes entre les municipalités. Les résultats ont montré que Castilla la Nueva (périurbain) avait la fréquence d'épidémies la plus élevée, avec quatre pics distincts, tandis que Puerto Lopez (rural) en avait le moins. L'ampleur du nombre d'infections était la plus élevée à Villavicencio (urbain), probablement parce qu'elle était la plus peuplée des trois. Les trois municipalités avaient toutes deux une tendance qui dépendait des pics et des creux des flambées de dengue et toutes avaient une composante saisonnière distincte. L'association avec la température, les précipitations, l'humidité relative, la vitesse du vent et la pression de surface à travers les décalages n'était pas linéaire. La non-linéarité a été présentée par un comportement en forme de dôme simple à multiple, dépendant de la municipalité. L'ampleur du risque relatif associé à chaque facteur environnemental dépendait également de la municipalité. Cette thèse propose la création d'un tableau de bord de prévisions utilisant des modèles non linéaires à décalage distribué pour chaque commune comme outil d’aide aux politiques et programmes de lutte contre la dengue.Dengue is presently a major public health issue in Colombia with significant health and economic burden. Environmental factors are known to influence dengue risk; however the shape, strength and timing of these relationships are not clearly established. The scale and timing of dengue outbreaks vary according to location. This thesis examined the temporal components of weekly dengue cases time series in Villavicencio, Castilla la Nueva and Puerto Lopez municipalities of Colombia from 2014 to 2019. It proceeded to estimate the shape and magnitude of the associations between weekly dengue cases and five meteorological factors, measured weekly, for each of the municipalities using the Distributed lag non-linear models framework with negative binomial distribution. It finally compared the associations across the three municipalities (urban, peri urban, and rural) to observe whether the associations found were consistent across municipalities. The results showed that Castilla la Nueva (peri-urban) had the highest frequency of epidemics, with four distinct peaks, while Puerto Lopez (rural) had the fewest. The magnitude of the number of infections was greatest in Villavicencio (urban), likely as a result of it being the most populated among the three. All three municipalities both had a trend which was dependent on the peaks and troughs of dengue outbreaks and all had a distinct seasonal component. The association with temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and surface pressure across lags were non-linear. The non-linearity was exhibited by single to multiple dome-shaped behaviour dependent on the municipality. The magnitude of the relative risk associated with each environmental factor was also dependent on the municipality. This thesis suggest the creation of a dashboard of forecasts of distributed lag non-linear models for each municipality as a policy and program aid, in the fight against dengue

Nonimmune Hydrops Fetalis

Hydrops fetalis is an excessive accumulation of fluid within the fetal extravascular compartments and body cavities generally characterized by: •placental enlargement •ascites •pericardial effusions •pleural effusions (Bellini, 2014, p. 1082). Nonimmune hydrops fetalis (NIHF) develops as a result of one or more nonimmune factors, distinguishing it from immune hydrops fetalis that results from a maternal antigen-body fetal antigen-mediated red blood cell hemolysis (Randenberg, 2010, p. 281)

Reflections from Teaching through a Pandemic: A focus on the Silver Lining

While the COVID pandemic brought many challenges to teaching, it also drove innovation. In this talk, Heather Walker will reflect on the changes that the pandemic brought to her teaching practices. She’ll discuss which ones she plans to keep and which ones she’ll throw away. The goal will be to consider how teaching through the pandemic benefitted her as a teacher

The Influence Of Cultural Diversity On Initial Decisions To Trust In Newly Forming Teams: A Policy Capturing Approach

This study investigated the impact of diversity on the decision to trust at team formation when no history or prior relationship exists. The study consisted of two phases: 1) a selection phase and 2) a policy capturing phase. The first phase consisted of demographics, propensity to trust, and prejudice scales that were used to select participants for phase 2. The second phase consisted of a full factorial design, policy capturing study which consisted of 64 scenarios which varied the level (i.e., high and low) of 6 variables: cultural diversity, attribution, perceptions of risk, trustworthiness, third party information, and role clarity. The policy capturing study was used to identify the weights given to these variables when deciding whether or not to trust a new team member. Propensity to trust scores and prejudice ratings were used as moderators of the relationships between these 6 variables and the decision to trust. Findings showed that there was a strong moderating affect of the diversity of the simulated team member on the participant\u27s decision to trust. However, there was no direct relationship between diversity and the decision to trust. The weight given to each variable, as well as the interaction of variables, was different based on the diversity of the new team member. Findings suggest that when forming teams, the diversity of new team members will impact what factors individuals consider in deciding to trust that other person. In addition to future research needs, the impact of these results is discussed in terms of both training and selection in teams

Positive Psychology Coursework and Subjective Wellbeing

Positive Psychology aims to shift the conversation of mental health from solely repairing mental dysfunction to focusing on individuals’ positive qualities or strengths (Seligman, 2000). This study aims at exploring connections between a Positive Psychology college level coursework and students’ self-reported wellbeing using an electronically administered survey containing multiple scales used to measure various aspects of wellbeing. Scales used were The Ryff Scale of Psychological Wellbeing, The Purpose in Life Test (PIL), the Alienation Scale, and questions related to the course content itself. Students who have higher wellbeing tend to have increased life benefits such as health, life-satisfaction, and flourishing aspects such as academic success (Coffey, 2014). Participants were also measured on their likelihood to use the curriculum in their day-to-day operations. Results show trends in increased measure scores in a small sample size. No significant correlations were found

Student participation in the academic discourse community: An ESL student working independently and ESL students working with writing tutors

Penetration of the academic discourse community is a challenging obstacle for students who speak English as a Second Language. Not only are ESL students expected to understand academic concepts presented to them in a second language, but they are expected to demonstrate and refine these concepts through conceptual activities in another culture\u27s written discourse. To handle this cognitive load, they rely on various strategies often effective but sometimes ineffective. Many ESL students have chosen the strategy of working with the tutors in a writing center. Other students have a more independent approach. What is the role of the tutors as they invite ESL students into verbal and written participation in the academic community? Besides choosing to visit the writing tutors, what are other strategies that an advanced ESL student follows to gain access to the community through writing? I conducted two studies at a small, private religious college in answer to these questions. The first was a case study of an Asian ESL student in the last term of her freshman year. Data was collected through observations in her classes, two interviews, a questionnaire, a writing survey, and eight of her writing assignments. In the second, I taped tutorials between ESL students and their writing tutors. I analyzed the interactions about the problems (as identified by Cumming and So [1996]) in order to describe the tutor\u27s role of informant, specifically when supplying lexical information, and the ESL student\u27s opportunities to participate. The conclusion of the first study is that an ESL student was able to experience apparent success in academic discourse by applying two strategies: relying on other written text and meeting her instructors\u27 unwritten expectations, especially a demonstration of diligence. In addition to not choosing to visit the writing center, a notable strategy that that student did not choose was interaction with her instructors and classmates. I explain how the academic community and her home culture have upheld her decisions. The conclusions in the second study show that tutors are able to fulfill the role of informants while collaboratively drawing the ESL students into dialogue. Collaboration, however, must be seen as scalar and its degree influenced by many factors. ESL students through the tutorials developed their discourse ability in using words that affected structural coherence, words that fit the academic context, and words that more precisely expressed their intended meaning

Entheogenic and Nature-Oriented Transpersonal Experiences, and Inspirations and Challenges of Ecological and Sociopolitical Activism: Applying Participatory Action Research, Heuristic Inquiry, and Thematic Analysis to Empower Activists

In original research on empowering adult North Americans who aspire to address the ecological crisis (N = 21), heuristic inquiry, participatory action research, and thematic analysis were applied to examining the challenges and inspirations to coresearchers\u27 broadly defined activism. The following themes emerged: Entheogenic and nature-oriented transpersonal and awe-evoking experiences; identifying origins of the ecological crisis; high and low political efficacy—inspired activism; relations with nature increased wellbeing; psychospiritual development and activism were mutually stimulating; challenges to activism and nurturing selfgrowth to overcome challenges; individuation needs inspired and were a challenge to activism; ecologically conscious collaboration and lifestyle transformation fostered psychospiritual growth. Many coresearchers expressed negative attitudes toward sociopolitical activism, suggesting a need for psychospiritual supports to evoke collaborative sociopolitical transformation

A Problem Based Learning Meta Analysis: Differences Across Problem Types, Implementation Types, Disciplines, and Assessment Levels

Problem based learning (PBL) in its most current form originated in Medical Education but has since been used in a variety of disciplines (Savery & Duffy, 1995) at a variety of educational levels (Savery, 2006). Although recent meta analyses have been conducted (Dochy, Segers, Van den Bossche, & Gijbels, 2003; Gijbels, Dochy, Van den Bossche, & Segers, 2005) that attempted to go beyond medical education, they found only one study in economics and were unable to explain large portions of the variance across results. This work builds upon their efforts as a meta-analysis that crosses disciplines as well as categorizes the types of problems used (Jonassen, 2000), the PBL approach employed (Barrows, 1986), and the level of assessment (Gijbels et al., 2005; Sugrue, 1993, 1995). Across 82 studies and 201 outcomes the findings favor PBL (d = 0.13, +/- .025) with a lack of homogeneity (Q = 954.27) that warrants a closer examination of moderating factors