472 research outputs found
Coronal Fe XIV Emission During the Whole Heliosphere Interval Campaign
Solar Cycle 24 is having a historically long and weak start. Observations of
the Fe XIV corona from the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar
Observatory show an abnormal pattern of emission compared to observations of
Cycles 21, 22, and 23 from the same instrument. The previous three cycles have
shown a strong, rapid "Rush to the Poles" (previously observed in polar crown
prominences and earlier coronal observations) in the parameter N(t,l,dt)
(average number of Fe XIV emission features per day over dt days at time t and
latitude l). Cycle 24 displays a weak, intermittent, and slow "Rush" that is
apparent only in the northern hemisphere. If the northern Rush persists at its
current rate, evidence from the Rushes in previous cycles indicates that solar
maximum will occur in early 2013 or late 2012, at least in the northern
hemisphere. At lower latitudes, solar maximum previously occurred when the time
maximum of N(t,l,365) reached approximately 20{\deg} latitude. Currently, this
parameter is at or below 30{\deg}and decreasing in latitude. Unfortunately, it
is difficult at this time to calculate the rate of decrease in N(t,l,365).
However, the southern hemisphere could reach 20{\deg} in 2011. Nonetheless,
considering the levels of activity so far, there is a possibility that the
maximum could be indiscernibleComment: 8 pages, 4 figures; Solar Physics Online First, 2011
http://www.springerlink.com/content/b5kl4040k0626647
Magnetic Evolution and Temperature Variation in a Coronal Hole
We have explored the magnetic flux evolution and temperature variation in a
coronal-hole region, using Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) deep magnetograms
and {\it SOHO}/EIT images observed from 2005 October 10 to 14. For comparison,
we also investigated a neighboring quiet region of the Sun. The coronal hole
evolved from its mature stage to its disappearance during the observing period.
We have obtained the following results: (1) When the coronal hole was well
developed on October 10, about 60 % of the magnetic flux was positive. The EUV
brightness was 420 counts pixel, and the coronal temperature, estimated
from the line ratio of the EIT 195 {\AA} and 171 {\AA} images, was 1.07 MK. (2)
On October 14, when the coronal hole had almost disappeared, 51 % of the
magnetic flux was positive, the EUV radiance was 530 counts pixel, and
the temperature was 1.10 MK. (3) In the neighboring quiet region, the fraction
of positive flux varied between 0.49 and 0.47. The EUV brightness displayed an
irregular variation, with a mean value of 870 counts pixel. The
temperature was almost constant at 1.11 MK during the five-day observation. Our
results demonstrate that in a coronal hole less imbalance of the magnetic flux
in opposite polarities leads to stronger EUV brightness and higher coronal
temperatures
Is Cycle 24 the Beginning of a Dalton-Like Minimum?
The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way
to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of
spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that
spotless days do not disappear abruptly in the transition towards an active
sun. A comparison with past cycles indicates that the ongoing accumulation of
spotless days is comparable to that of cycle 5 near the Dalton minimum and to
that of cycles 12, 14 and 15. It also suggests that the ongoing cycle has as
much as 20 \pm 8 spotless days left, from July 2010, before it reaches the next
solar maximum. The last spotless day is predicted to be in December 2012, with
an uncertainty of 11 months. This trend may serve as input to the solar dynamo
theories.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. The final publication is available at
http://www.springerlink.co
A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones
The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is
determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar
rotation from May 1874 to June 2011. When these centroid positions are plotted
and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears
to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a
function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are
plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then
most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear.
The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to
determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times
of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative
to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence
upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in
its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no
significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of
variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave
mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the
equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.Comment: 12 pages, 7 color figure
Hemispheric Sunspot Numbers R_n and R_s: Catalogue and N-S asymmetry analysis
Sunspot drawings are provided on a regular basis at the Kanzelhoehe Solar
Observatory, Austria, and the derived relative sunspot numbers are reported to
the Sunspot Index Data Center in Brussels. From the daily sunspot drawings, we
derived the northern, R_n, and southern, R_s, relative sunspot numbers for the
time span 1975-2000. In order to accord with the International Sunspot Numbers
R_i, the R_n and R_s have been normalized to the R_i, which ensures that the
relation R_n + R_s = R_i is fulfilled. For validation, the derived R_n and R_s
are compared to the international northern and southern relative sunspot
numbers, which are available from 1992. The regression analysis performed for
the period 1992-2000 reveals good agreement with the International hemispheric
Sunspot Numbers. The monthly mean and the smoothed monthly mean hemispheric
Sunspot Numbers are compiled into a catalogue. Based on the derived hemispheric
Sunspot Numbers, we study the significance of N-S asymmetries and the
rotational behavior separately for both hemispheres. We obtain that about 60%
of the monthly N-S asymmetries are significant at a 95% level, whereas the
relative contributions of the northern and southern hemisphere are different
for different cycles. From the analysis of power spectra and autocorrelation
functions, we derive a rigid rotation with about 27 days for the northern
hemisphere, which can be followed for up to 15 periods. Contrary to that, the
southern hemisphere reveals a dominant period of about 28 days, whereas the
autocorrelation is strongly attenuated after 3 periods. These findings suggest
that the activity of the northern hemisphere is dominated by an active zone,
whereas the southern activity is mainly dominated by individual long-lived
sunspot groups.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, data catalogue online available at
http://cdsweb.u-strasbg.fr/cgi-bin/qcat?J/A+A/390/70
Photospheric Magnetic Field: Relationship Between North-South Asymmetry and Flux Imbalance
Photospheric magnetic fields were studied using the Kitt Peak synoptic maps
for 1976-2003. Only strong magnetic fields (B>100 G) of the equatorial region
were taken into account. The north-south asymmetry of the magnetic fluxes was
considered as well as the imbalance between positive and negative fluxes. The
north-south asymmetry displays a regular alternation of the dominant hemisphere
during the solar cycle: the northern hemisphere dominated in the ascending
phase, the southern one in the descending phase during Solar Cycles 21-23. The
sign of the imbalance did not change during the 11 years from one polar-field
reversal to the next and always coincided with the sign of the Sun's polar
magnetic field in the northern hemisphere. The dominant sign of leading
sunspots in one of the hemispheres determines the sign of the magnetic-flux
imbalance. The sign of the north-south asymmetry of the magnetic fluxes and the
sign of the imbalance of the positive and the negative fluxes are related to
the quarter of the 22-year magnetic cycle where the magnetic configuration of
the Sun remains constant (from the minimum where the sunspot sign changes
according to Hale's law to the magnetic-field reversal and from the reversal to
the minimum). The sign of the north-south asymmetry for the time interval
considered was determined by the phase of the 11-year cycle (before or after
the reversal); the sign of the imbalance of the positive and the negative
fluxes depends on both the phase of the 11-year cycle and on the parity of the
solar cycle. The results obtained demonstrate the connection of the magnetic
fields in active regions with the Sun's polar magnetic field in the northern
hemisphere.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures, 2 table
Width of Sunspot Generating Zone and Reconstruction of Butterfly Diagram
Based on the extended Greenwich-NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups it is
demonstrated that the parameters describing the latitudinal width of the
sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar
activity, and the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of SGZ. The
ratio of the sunspot number to the width of SGZ shows saturation at a certain
level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity
takes place mostly due to the expansion of SGZ. It is shown that the mean
latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes of solar
activity. Using the obtained relations and the group sunspot numbers by Hoyt
and Schatten (1998), the latitude distribution of sunspot groups ("the Maunder
butterfly diagram") for the 18th and the first half of the 19th centuries is
reconstructed and compared with historical sunspot observations.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures; accepted by Solar Physics; the final
publication will be available at www.springerlink.co
Solar cycle prediction using precursors and flux transport models
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the
strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the
azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which
contains a source term describing the emergence of new flux based on
observational sunspot data. We consider the magnetic flux diffusing over the
equator as a predictor, since this quantity is directly related to the global
dipole field from which a Babcock-Leighton dynamo generates the toroidal field
for the next activity cycle. If the source is represented schematically by a
narrow activity belt drifting with constant speed over a fixed range of
latitudes between activity minima, our predictor shows considerable predictive
skill with correlation coefficients up to 0.95 for past cycles. However, the
predictive skill is completely lost when the actually observed emergence
latitudes are used. This result originates from the fact that the precursor
amplitude is determined by the sunspot activity a few years before solar
minimum. Since stronger cycles tend to rise faster to their maximum activity
(known as the Waldmeier effect), the temporal overlapping of cycles leads to a
shift of the minimum epochs that depends on the strength of the following
cycle. This information is picked up by precursor methods and also by our flux
transport model with a schematic source. Therefore, their predictive skill does
not require a memory, i.e., a physical connection between the surface
manifestations of subsequent activity cycles.Comment: Astrophys. Journal, in pres
A Bayesian Analysis of the Correlations Among Sunspot Cycles
Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity
and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of
the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24
cycles for which observational records are available. Here we carry out a
sophisticated statistical analysis of the sunspot record that reaffirms these
correlations, and sets up an empirical predictive framework for future cycles.
An advantage of our approach is that it allows for rigorous assessment of both
the statistical significance of various cycle features and the uncertainty
associated with predictions. We summarize the data into three sequential
relations that estimate the amplitude, duration, and time of rise to maximum
for any cycle, given the values from the previous cycle. We find that there is
no indication of a persistence in predictive power beyond one cycle, and
conclude that the dynamo does not retain memory beyond one cycle. Based on
sunspot records up to October 2011, we obtain, for Cycle 24, an estimated
maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number of 97 +- 15, to occur in
January--February 2014 +- 6 months.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physic
The G-O Rule and Waldmeier Effect in the Variations of the Numbers of Large and Small Sunspot Groups
We have analysed the combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network
(SOON) sunspot group data during the period of 1874-2011 and determined
variations in the annual numbers (counts) of the small, large and big sunspot
groups (these classifications are made on the basis of the maximum areas of the
sunspot groups). We found that the amplitude of an even-numbered cycle of the
number of large groups is smaller than that of its immediately following
odd-numbered cycle. This is consistent with the well known Gnevyshev and Ohl
rule or G-O rule of solar cycles, generally described by using the Zurich
sunspot number (Rz). During cycles 12-21 the G-O rule holds good for the
variation in the number of small groups also, but it is violated by cycle pair
(22, 23) as in the case of Rz. This behaviour of the variations in the small
groups is largely responsible for the anomalous behaviour of Rz in cycle pair
(22, 23). It is also found that the amplitude of an odd-numbered cycle of the
number of small groups is larger than that of its immediately following
even-numbered cycle. This can be called as `reverse G-O rule'. In the case of
the number of the big groups, both cycle pairs (12, 13) and (22, 23) violated
the G-O rule. In many cycles the positions of the peaks of the small, large,
and big groups are different and considerably differ with respect to the
corresponding positions of the Rz peaks. In the case of cycle 23, the
corresponding cycles of the small and large groups are largely symmetric/less
asymmetric (Waldmeier effect is weak/absent) with their maxima taking place two
years later than that of Rz. The corresponding cycle of the big groups is more
asymmetric (strong Waldmeier effect) with its maximum epoch taking place at the
same time as that of Rz.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, accepted by Solar Physic
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