Coronal Fe XIV Emission During the Whole Heliosphere Interval Campaign

Solar Cycle 24 is having a historically long and weak start. Observations of the Fe XIV corona from the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar Observatory show an abnormal pattern of emission compared to observations of Cycles 21, 22, and 23 from the same instrument. The previous three cycles have shown a strong, rapid "Rush to the Poles" (previously observed in polar crown prominences and earlier coronal observations) in the parameter N(t,l,dt) (average number of Fe XIV emission features per day over dt days at time t and latitude l). Cycle 24 displays a weak, intermittent, and slow "Rush" that is apparent only in the northern hemisphere. If the northern Rush persists at its current rate, evidence from the Rushes in previous cycles indicates that solar maximum will occur in early 2013 or late 2012, at least in the northern hemisphere. At lower latitudes, solar maximum previously occurred when the time maximum of N(t,l,365) reached approximately 20{\deg} latitude. Currently, this parameter is at or below 30{\deg}and decreasing in latitude. Unfortunately, it is difficult at this time to calculate the rate of decrease in N(t,l,365). However, the southern hemisphere could reach 20{\deg} in 2011. Nonetheless, considering the levels of activity so far, there is a possibility that the maximum could be indiscernibleComment: 8 pages, 4 figures; Solar Physics Online First, 2011 http://www.springerlink.com/content/b5kl4040k0626647

Magnetic Evolution and Temperature Variation in a Coronal Hole

We have explored the magnetic flux evolution and temperature variation in a coronal-hole region, using Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) deep magnetograms and {\it SOHO}/EIT images observed from 2005 October 10 to 14. For comparison, we also investigated a neighboring quiet region of the Sun. The coronal hole evolved from its mature stage to its disappearance during the observing period. We have obtained the following results: (1) When the coronal hole was well developed on October 10, about 60 % of the magnetic flux was positive. The EUV brightness was 420 counts pixel$^{-1}$, and the coronal temperature, estimated from the line ratio of the EIT 195 {\AA} and 171 {\AA} images, was 1.07 MK. (2) On October 14, when the coronal hole had almost disappeared, 51 % of the magnetic flux was positive, the EUV radiance was 530 counts pixel$^{-1}$, and the temperature was 1.10 MK. (3) In the neighboring quiet region, the fraction of positive flux varied between 0.49 and 0.47. The EUV brightness displayed an irregular variation, with a mean value of 870 counts pixel$^{-1}$. The temperature was almost constant at 1.11 MK during the five-day observation. Our results demonstrate that in a coronal hole less imbalance of the magnetic flux in opposite polarities leads to stronger EUV brightness and higher coronal temperatures

Is Cycle 24 the Beginning of a Dalton-Like Minimum?

The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that spotless days do not disappear abruptly in the transition towards an active sun. A comparison with past cycles indicates that the ongoing accumulation of spotless days is comparable to that of cycle 5 near the Dalton minimum and to that of cycles 12, 14 and 15. It also suggests that the ongoing cycle has as much as 20 \pm 8 spotless days left, from July 2010, before it reaches the next solar maximum. The last spotless day is predicted to be in December 2012, with an uncertainty of 11 months. This trend may serve as input to the solar dynamo theories.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones

The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2011. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear. The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.Comment: 12 pages, 7 color figure

Hemispheric Sunspot Numbers R_n and R_s: Catalogue and N-S asymmetry analysis

Sunspot drawings are provided on a regular basis at the Kanzelhoehe Solar Observatory, Austria, and the derived relative sunspot numbers are reported to the Sunspot Index Data Center in Brussels. From the daily sunspot drawings, we derived the northern, R_n, and southern, R_s, relative sunspot numbers for the time span 1975-2000. In order to accord with the International Sunspot Numbers R_i, the R_n and R_s have been normalized to the R_i, which ensures that the relation R_n + R_s = R_i is fulfilled. For validation, the derived R_n and R_s are compared to the international northern and southern relative sunspot numbers, which are available from 1992. The regression analysis performed for the period 1992-2000 reveals good agreement with the International hemispheric Sunspot Numbers. The monthly mean and the smoothed monthly mean hemispheric Sunspot Numbers are compiled into a catalogue. Based on the derived hemispheric Sunspot Numbers, we study the significance of N-S asymmetries and the rotational behavior separately for both hemispheres. We obtain that about 60% of the monthly N-S asymmetries are significant at a 95% level, whereas the relative contributions of the northern and southern hemisphere are different for different cycles. From the analysis of power spectra and autocorrelation functions, we derive a rigid rotation with about 27 days for the northern hemisphere, which can be followed for up to 15 periods. Contrary to that, the southern hemisphere reveals a dominant period of about 28 days, whereas the autocorrelation is strongly attenuated after 3 periods. These findings suggest that the activity of the northern hemisphere is dominated by an active zone, whereas the southern activity is mainly dominated by individual long-lived sunspot groups.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, data catalogue online available at http://cdsweb.u-strasbg.fr/cgi-bin/qcat?J/A+A/390/70

Photospheric Magnetic Field: Relationship Between North-South Asymmetry and Flux Imbalance

Photospheric magnetic fields were studied using the Kitt Peak synoptic maps for 1976-2003. Only strong magnetic fields (B>100 G) of the equatorial region were taken into account. The north-south asymmetry of the magnetic fluxes was considered as well as the imbalance between positive and negative fluxes. The north-south asymmetry displays a regular alternation of the dominant hemisphere during the solar cycle: the northern hemisphere dominated in the ascending phase, the southern one in the descending phase during Solar Cycles 21-23. The sign of the imbalance did not change during the 11 years from one polar-field reversal to the next and always coincided with the sign of the Sun's polar magnetic field in the northern hemisphere. The dominant sign of leading sunspots in one of the hemispheres determines the sign of the magnetic-flux imbalance. The sign of the north-south asymmetry of the magnetic fluxes and the sign of the imbalance of the positive and the negative fluxes are related to the quarter of the 22-year magnetic cycle where the magnetic configuration of the Sun remains constant (from the minimum where the sunspot sign changes according to Hale's law to the magnetic-field reversal and from the reversal to the minimum). The sign of the north-south asymmetry for the time interval considered was determined by the phase of the 11-year cycle (before or after the reversal); the sign of the imbalance of the positive and the negative fluxes depends on both the phase of the 11-year cycle and on the parity of the solar cycle. The results obtained demonstrate the connection of the magnetic fields in active regions with the Sun's polar magnetic field in the northern hemisphere.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures, 2 table

Width of Sunspot Generating Zone and Reconstruction of Butterfly Diagram

Based on the extended Greenwich-NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups it is demonstrated that the parameters describing the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of SGZ shows saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly due to the expansion of SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes of solar activity. Using the obtained relations and the group sunspot numbers by Hoyt and Schatten (1998), the latitude distribution of sunspot groups ("the Maunder butterfly diagram") for the 18th and the first half of the 19th centuries is reconstructed and compared with historical sunspot observations.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures; accepted by Solar Physics; the final publication will be available at www.springerlink.co

Solar cycle prediction using precursors and flux transport models

We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a source term describing the emergence of new flux based on observational sunspot data. We consider the magnetic flux diffusing over the equator as a predictor, since this quantity is directly related to the global dipole field from which a Babcock-Leighton dynamo generates the toroidal field for the next activity cycle. If the source is represented schematically by a narrow activity belt drifting with constant speed over a fixed range of latitudes between activity minima, our predictor shows considerable predictive skill with correlation coefficients up to 0.95 for past cycles. However, the predictive skill is completely lost when the actually observed emergence latitudes are used. This result originates from the fact that the precursor amplitude is determined by the sunspot activity a few years before solar minimum. Since stronger cycles tend to rise faster to their maximum activity (known as the Waldmeier effect), the temporal overlapping of cycles leads to a shift of the minimum epochs that depends on the strength of the following cycle. This information is picked up by precursor methods and also by our flux transport model with a schematic source. Therefore, their predictive skill does not require a memory, i.e., a physical connection between the surface manifestations of subsequent activity cycles.Comment: Astrophys. Journal, in pres

The G-O Rule and Waldmeier Effect in the Variations of the Numbers of Large and Small Sunspot Groups

We have analysed the combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period of 1874-2011 and determined variations in the annual numbers (counts) of the small, large and big sunspot groups (these classifications are made on the basis of the maximum areas of the sunspot groups). We found that the amplitude of an even-numbered cycle of the number of large groups is smaller than that of its immediately following odd-numbered cycle. This is consistent with the well known Gnevyshev and Ohl rule or G-O rule of solar cycles, generally described by using the Zurich sunspot number (Rz). During cycles 12-21 the G-O rule holds good for the variation in the number of small groups also, but it is violated by cycle pair (22, 23) as in the case of Rz. This behaviour of the variations in the small groups is largely responsible for the anomalous behaviour of Rz in cycle pair (22, 23). It is also found that the amplitude of an odd-numbered cycle of the number of small groups is larger than that of its immediately following even-numbered cycle. This can be called as `reverse G-O rule'. In the case of the number of the big groups, both cycle pairs (12, 13) and (22, 23) violated the G-O rule. In many cycles the positions of the peaks of the small, large, and big groups are different and considerably differ with respect to the corresponding positions of the Rz peaks. In the case of cycle 23, the corresponding cycles of the small and large groups are largely symmetric/less asymmetric (Waldmeier effect is weak/absent) with their maxima taking place two years later than that of Rz. The corresponding cycle of the big groups is more asymmetric (strong Waldmeier effect) with its maximum epoch taking place at the same time as that of Rz.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, accepted by Solar Physic

A Bayesian Analysis of the Correlations Among Sunspot Cycles

Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for which observational records are available. Here we carry out a sophisticated statistical analysis of the sunspot record that reaffirms these correlations, and sets up an empirical predictive framework for future cycles. An advantage of our approach is that it allows for rigorous assessment of both the statistical significance of various cycle features and the uncertainty associated with predictions. We summarize the data into three sequential relations that estimate the amplitude, duration, and time of rise to maximum for any cycle, given the values from the previous cycle. We find that there is no indication of a persistence in predictive power beyond one cycle, and conclude that the dynamo does not retain memory beyond one cycle. Based on sunspot records up to October 2011, we obtain, for Cycle 24, an estimated maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number of 97 +- 15, to occur in January--February 2014 +- 6 months.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physic