Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004, and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices, and a stronger dollar under a George W. Bush presidency than under John Kerry. A similar Republican–Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush–Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2–3 percent, and that since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields

Innovations for Improving Courtroom Communications and Views from Appellate Courts

Symposium: Improving Communications In the Courtroo

Innovations for Improving Courtroom Communications and Views from Appellate Courts

Symposium: Improving Communications In the Courtroo

Divergences in the Effective Action for Acausal Spacetimes

The 1--loop effective Lagrangian for a massive scalar field on an arbitrary causality violating spacetime is calculated using the methods of Euclidean quantum field theory in curved spacetime. Fields of spin 1/2, spin 1 and twisted field configurations are also considered. In general, we find that the Lagrangian diverges to minus infinity at each of the nth polarised hypersurfaces of the spacetime with a structure governed by a DeWitt-Schwinger type expansion.Comment: 17 pages, Late

Gravitational-Wave Signature of an Inspiral into a Supermassive Horizonless Object

Event horizons are among the most intriguing of general relativity's predictions. Although on firm theoretical footing, direct indications of their existence have yet to be observed. With this motivation in mind, we explore here the possibility of finding a signature for event horizons in the gravitational waves (GWs) produced during the inspiral of stellar-mass compact objects (COs) into the supermassive ($\sim 10^6 M_\odot$) objects that lie at the center of most galaxies. Such inspirals will be a major source for LISA, the future space-based GW observatory. We contrast supermassive black holes with models in which the central object is a supermassive boson star (SMBS). Provided the COs interact only gravitationally with the SMBS, stable orbits exist not just outside the Schwarzschild radius but also inside the surface of the SMBS as well. The absence of an event horizon allows GWs from these orbits to be observed. Here we solve for the metric in the interior of a fairly generic class of SMBS and evolve the trajectory of an inspiraling CO from the Schwarzschild exterior through the plunge into the exotic SMBS interior. We calculate the approximate waveforms for GWs emitted during this inspiral. Geodesics within the SMBS surface will exhibit extreme pericenter precession and other features making the emitted GWs readily distinguishable from those emitted during an inspiral into a black hole.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures, submitted to PR

Black-Hole Spin Dependence in the Light Curves of Tidal Disruption Events

A star orbiting a supermassive black hole can be tidally disrupted if the black hole's gravitational tidal field exceeds the star's self gravity at pericenter. Some of this stellar tidal debris can become gravitationally bound to the black hole, leading to a bright electromagnetic flare with bolometric luminosity proportional to the rate at which material falls back to pericenter. In the Newtonian limit, this flare will have a light curve that scales as t^-5/3 if the tidal debris has a flat distribution in binding energy. We investigate the time dependence of the black-hole mass accretion rate when tidal disruption occurs close enough the black hole that relativistic effects are significant. We find that for orbits with pericenters comparable to the radius of the marginally bound circular orbit, relativistic effects can double the peak accretion rate and halve the time it takes to reach this peak accretion rate. The accretion rate depends on both the magnitude of the black-hole spin and its orientation with respect to the stellar orbit; for orbits with a given pericenter radius in Boyer-Lindquist coordinates, a maximal black-hole spin anti-aligned with the orbital angular momentum leads to the largest peak accretion rate.Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures, 1 table, PRD published versio

Momentum flow in black-hole binaries: II. Numerical simulations of equal-mass, head-on mergers with antiparallel spins

Research on extracting science from binary-black-hole (BBH) simulations has often adopted a "scattering matrix" perspective: given the binary's initial parameters, what are the final hole's parameters and the emitted gravitational waveform? In contrast, we are using BBH simulations to explore the nonlinear dynamics of curved spacetime. Focusing on the head-on plunge, merger, and ringdown of a BBH with transverse, antiparallel spins, we explore numerically the momentum flow between the holes and the surrounding spacetime. We use the Landau-Lifshitz field-theory-in-flat-spacetime formulation of general relativity to define and compute the density of field energy and field momentum outside horizons and the energy and momentum contained within horizons, and we define the effective velocity of each apparent and event horizon as the ratio of its enclosed momentum to its enclosed mass-energy. We find surprisingly good agreement between the horizons' effective and coordinate velocities. To investigate the gauge dependence of our results, we compare pseudospectral and moving-puncture evolutions of physically similar initial data; although spectral and puncture simulations use different gauge conditions, we find remarkably good agreement for our results in these two cases. We also compare our simulations with the post-Newtonian trajectories and near-field energy-momentum. [Abstract abbreviated; full abstract also mentions additional results.]Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Atoh1 \u3csup\u3e+\u3c/sup\u3e secretory progenitors possess renewal capacity independent of Lgr5 \u3csup\u3e+\u3c/sup\u3e cells during colonic regeneration

During homeostasis, the colonic epithelium is replenished every 3–5 days by rapidly cycling Lgr5 + stem cells. However, various insults can lead to depletion of Lgr5 + stem cells, and colonic epithelium can be regenerated from Lgr5-negative cells. While studies in the small intestine have addressed the lineage identity of the Lgr5-negative regenerative cell population, in the colon this question has remained unanswered. Here, we set out to identify which cell(s) contribute to colonic regeneration by performing genetic fate-mapping studies of progenitor populations in mice. First, using keratin-19 (Krt19) to mark a heterogeneous population of cells, we found that Lgr5-negative cells can regenerate colonic crypts and give rise to Lgr5 + stem cells. Notch1 + absorptive progenitor cells did not contribute to epithelial repair after injury, whereas Atoh1 + secretory progenitors did contribute to this process. Additionally, while colonic Atoh1 + cells contributed minimally to other lineages during homeostasis, they displayed plasticity and contributed to epithelial repair during injury, independent of Lgr5 + cells. Our findings suggest that promotion of secretory progenitor plasticity could enable gut healing in colitis