Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.

Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period

Common data elements to standardize genomics studies in cerebral palsy

Aim To define clinical common data elements (CDEs) and a mandatory minimum data set (MDS) for genomic studies of cerebral palsy (CP). Method Candidate data elements were collated following a review of the literature and existing CDEs. An online, three-round Delphi survey was used to rate each data element as either ‘core’, ‘recommended’, ‘exploratory’, or ‘not required’. Members of the International Cerebral Palsy Genomics Consortium (ICPGC) rated the core CDEs as either mandatory or not, to form the MDS. For both the CDEs and the MDS, a data element was considered to have reached consensus if more than 75% of respondents agreed. Results Forty-six individuals from around the world formed the Delphi panel: consumers (n=2), scientists/researchers (n=17), medical (n=19), and allied health professionals (n=8). The CDEs include 107 data elements across six categories: demographics, diagnostics, family history, antenatal and neonatal details, clinical traits, and CP-specific assessments. Of these, 10 are mandatory, 42 core, 41 recommended, and 14 are exploratory. Interpretation The ICPGC CDEs provide a foundation for the standardization of phenotype data captured in CP genomic studies and will benefit international collaborations and pooling of data, particularly in rare conditions

People with cerebral palsy and their family’s preferences about genomics research

Introduction: The goal of this study was to understand individuals with cerebral palsy (CP) and their family’s attitudes and preferences to genomic research, including international data sharing and biobanking. Methods: Individuals with CP and their family members were invited to participate in the web-based survey via email (NSW/ACT CP Register) or via posts on social media by Cerebral Palsy Alliance, CP Research Network, and CP Now. Survey responses included yes/no/unsure, multiple choices, and Likert scales. Fisher’s exact and χ2 tests were used to assess if there were significant differences between subgroups. Results: Individuals with CP and their families (n = 145) were willing to participate in genomics research (68%), data sharing (82%), and biobanking efforts (75%). This willingness to participate was associated with completion of tertiary education, previous genetic testing experience, overall higher genomic awareness, and trust in international researchers. The survey respondents also expressed ongoing communication and diverse information needs regarding the use of their samples and data. Major concerns were associated with privacy and data security. Discussion: The success of genomic research and international data sharing efforts in CP are contingent upon broad support and recruitment. Ongoing consultation and engagement of individuals with CP and their families will facilitate trust and promote increased awareness of genomics in CP that may in turn maximize participant uptake and recruitment

Validity of a reported history of chickenpox in targeting varicella vaccination at susceptible adolescents in England

Introduction: In the UK, primary varicella is usually a mild infection in children, but can cause serious illness in susceptible pregnant women and adults. The UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is considering an adolescent varicella vaccination programme. Cost-effectiveness depends upon identifying susceptibles and minimising vaccine wastage, and chickenpox history is one method to screen for eligibility. To inform this approach, we estimated the proportion of adolescents with varicella antibodies by reported chickenpox history. Methods: Recruitment occurred through secondary schools in England from February to September 2012. Parents were asked about their child's history of chickenpox, explicitly setting the context in terms of the implications for vaccination. 247 adolescents, whose parents reported positive (120), negative (77) or uncertain (50) chickenpox history provided oral fluid for varicella zoster virus-specific immunoglobulin-G (VZV-IgG) testing. Results: 109 (90.8% [85.6-96.0%]) adolescents with a positive chickenpox history, 52 (67.5% [57.0-78.1%]) with a negative history and 42 (84.0% [73.7-94.3%]) with an uncertain history had VZV-IgG suggesting prior infection. Combining negative and uncertain histories, 74% had VZV-IgG (best-case). When discounting low total-IgG samples and counting equivocals as positive (worst-case), 84% had VZV-IgG. We also modelled outcomes by varying the negative predictive value (NPV) for the antibody assay, and found 74-87% under the best-case and 84-92% under the worst-case scenario would receive vaccine unnecessarily as NPV falls to 50%. Conclusion: Reported chickenpox history discriminates between varicella immunity and susceptibility in adolescents, but significant vaccine wastage would occur if this approach alone were used to determine vaccine eligibility. A small but important proportion of those with positive chickenpox history would remain susceptible. These data are needed to determine whether reported history, with or without oral fluid testing in those with negative and uncertain history, is sufficiently discriminatory to underpin a cost-effective adolescent varicella vaccination programme. © 2013 The Authors

Generation time of the alpha and delta SARS-CoV-2 variants: an epidemiological analysis.

BACKGROUND: In May, 2021, the delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 variant became dominant in the UK, superseded by the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in December, 2021. The delta variant is associated with increased transmissibility compared with the alpha variant, which was the dominant variant in the UK between December, 2020, and May, 2021. To understand transmission and the effectiveness of interventions, we aimed to investigate whether the delta variant generation time (the interval between infections in infector-infectee pairs) is shorter-ie, transmissions are happening more quickly-than that of the alpha variant. METHODS: In this epidemiological analysis, we analysed transmission data from an ongoing UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) prospective household study. Households were recruited to the study after an index case had a positive PCR test and genomic sequencing was used to determine the variant responsible. By fitting a mathematical transmission model to the data, we estimated the intrinsic generation time (which assumes a constant supply of susceptible individuals throughout infection) and the household generation time (which reflects realised transmission in the study households, accounting for susceptible depletion) for the alpha and delta variants. FINDINGS: Between February and August, 2021, 227 households consisting of 559 participants were recruited to the UKHSA study. The alpha variant was detected or assumed to be responsible for infections in 131 households (243 infections in 334 participants) recruited in February-May, and the delta variant in 96 households (174 infections in 225 participants) in May-August. The mean intrinsic generation time was shorter for the delta variant (4·7 days, 95% credible interval [CI] 4·1-5·6) than the alpha variant (5·5 days, 4·7-6·5), with 92% posterior probability. The mean household generation time was 28% (95% CI 0-48%) shorter for the delta variant (3·2 days, 95% CI 2·5-4·2) than the alpha variant (4·5 days, 3·7-5·4), with 97·5% posterior probability. INTERPRETATION: The delta variant transmits more quickly in households than the alpha variant, which can be attributed to faster depletion of susceptible individuals in households and a possible decrease in the intrinsic generation time. Interventions such as contact tracing, testing, and isolation might be less effective if transmission of the virus occurs quickly. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, UK Health Security Agency, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and UK Research and Innovation

The convective storm initiation project

Copyright @ 2007 AMSThe Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety of ground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawin-sondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.This work is funded by the National Environment Research Council following an initial award from the HEFCE Joint Infrastructure Fund

Safety and immunogenicity of AS03B adjuvanted split virion versus non-adjuvanted whole virion H1N1 influenza vaccine in UK children aged 6 months-12 years: open label, randomised, parallel group, multicentre study

Objectives To compare the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of an adjuvanted split virion H1N1 vaccine and a non-adjuvanted whole virion vaccine used in the pandemic immunisation programme in the United Kingdom

Impact Melt Rocks from the Late Paleocene Hiawatha Impact Structure, Northwest Greenland

Impact melt rocks formed during hypervelocity impact events are ideal for studying impact structures. Here, we describe impact melt rock samples collected proximal to the 31 km wide 58 Ma Hiawatha impact structure, northwest Greenland, which is completely covered by the Greenland Ice Sheet. The melt rocks contain diagnostic shock indicators (e.g., planar deformation features [PDF] in quartz and shocked zircon) and form three groups based on melt textures and chemistry: (i) hypocrystalline, (ii) glassy, and (iii) carbonate-based melt rocks. The exposed foreland directly in front of the structure consists of metasedimentary successions and igneous plutons; however, the carbonate-based impactites indicate a mixed target sequence with a significant carbonate-rich component. Well-preserved organic material in some melt rocks indicates that North Greenland at the time of impact was host to abundant organic material, likely a dense high-latitude temperate forest. Geochemical signatures of platinum-group elements in selected samples indicate an extraterrestrial component and support previous identification of a highly fractionated iron impactor in glaciofluvial sand. Our results illustrate the possibility to study impact structures hidden beneath a thick ice sheet based on transported samples and this opens a new avenue for identifying other potential impact craters in Greenland and Antarctica

Impact melt rocks from the Late Paleocene Hiawatha impact structure, northwest Greenland

Impact melt rocks formed during hypervelocity impact events are ideal for studying impact structures. Here, we describe impact melt rock samples collected proximal to the 31 km wide 58 Ma Hiawatha impact structure, northwest Greenland, which is completely covered by the Greenland Ice Sheet. The melt rocks contain diagnostic shock indicators (e.g., planar deformation features [PDF] in quartz and shocked zircon) and form three groups based on melt textures and chemistry: (i) hypocrystalline, (ii) glassy, and (iii) carbonate-based melt rocks. The exposed foreland directly in front of the structure consists of metasedimentary successions and igneous plutons; however, the carbonate-based impactites indicate a mixed target sequence with a significant carbonate-rich component. Well-preserved organic material in some melt rocks indicates that North Greenland at the time of impact was host to abundant organic material, likely a dense high-latitude temperate forest. Geochemical signatures of platinum-group elements in selected samples indicate an extraterrestrial component and support previous identification of a highly fractionated iron impactor in glaciofluvial sand. Our results illustrate the possibility to study impact structures hidden beneath a thick ice sheet based on transported samples and this opens a new avenue for identifying other potential impact craters in Greenland and Antarctica