Bargaining in the Shadow of Big Data

Attorney bargaining has traditionally taken place in the shadow of trial as litigants adjust tactics-and their inclination to negotiate a settlement-based on their forecast of the outcome of a trial and its associated costs. Lawyers bargaining on the verge of trial have traditionally relied on their intuition, knowledge of precedent, and previous interactions with the presiding judge and opposing counsel to forecast trial outcomes and litigation costs. Today, however, technology that leverages legal data is moving the practice of law into the shadow of the trends and patterns apparent in aggregated litigation data. This Article describes the tools that facilitate this paradigm shift and examines how lawyers use these tools to forecast litigation outcomes and reduce Coasean bargaining costs in both litigation and transactional fields. This Article also explores some of the risks associated with bargaining in the shadow of big data, and it offers guidance to lawyers leveraging these tools to improve their practice. This discussion pushes beyond the cartoonish image of big data as a mechanical fortuneteller-predicting who will win or lose a case, supposedly eliminating research or deliberation. This Article also debunks the alarmist cliches about newfangled technologies eliminating jobs. Demand for lawyers who are capable of effective bargaining when confronted by big data will continue to increase as the legal profession catches up to the data-centric approach found in other industries. Ultimately, this Article paints a portrait of what big data really means for practicing attorneys, and it provides a framework for exploring the theoretical implications of lawyering in the era of information analytics

Bargaining in the Shadow of Big Data

Attorney bargaining has traditionally taken place in the shadow of trial as litigants adjust tactics-and their inclination to negotiate a settlement-based on their forecast of the outcome of a trial and its associated costs. Lawyers bargaining on the verge of trial have traditionally relied on their intuition, knowledge of precedent, and previous interactions with the presiding judge and opposing counsel to forecast trial outcomes and litigation costs. Today, however, technology that leverages legal data is moving the practice of law into the shadow of the trends and patterns apparent in aggregated litigation data. This Article describes the tools that facilitate this paradigm shift and examines how lawyers use these tools to forecast litigation outcomes and reduce Coasean bargaining costs in both litigation and transactional fields. This Article also explores some of the risks associated with bargaining in the shadow of big data, and it offers guidance to lawyers leveraging these tools to improve their practice. This discussion pushes beyond the cartoonish image of big data as a mechanical fortuneteller-predicting who will win or lose a case, supposedly eliminating research or deliberation. This Article also debunks the alarmist cliches about newfangled technologies eliminating jobs. Demand for lawyers who are capable of effective bargaining when confronted by big data will continue to increase as the legal profession catches up to the data-centric approach found in other industries. Ultimately, this Article paints a portrait of what big data really means for practicing attorneys, and it provides a framework for exploring the theoretical implications of lawyering in the era of information analytics

Nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor dosing errors in an outpatient HIV clinic in the electronic medical record era

Information on antiretroviral dosing errors among health care providers for outpatient human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients is lacking. We evaluated factors associated with nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor dosing errors in a university-based HIV clinic using an electronic medical record. Overall, older age, minority race or ethnicity, and didanosine use were related to such errors. Impaired renal function was more common in older patients and racial or ethnic minorities and, in conjunction with fixed-dose combination drugs, contributed to the higher rates of errors in nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor dosing. Understanding the factors related to nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor dosing errors is an important step in the building of preventive tools

Multiple effects of silymarin on the hepatitis C virus lifecycle

Silymarin, an extract from milk thistle (Silybum marianum), and its purified flavonolignans have been recently shown to inhibit hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, both in vitro and in vivo. In the current study, we further characterized silymarin's antiviral actions. Silymarin had antiviral effects against hepatitis C virus cell culture (HCVcc) infection that included inhibition of virus entry, RNA and protein expression, and infectious virus production. Silymarin did not block HCVcc binding to cells but inhibited the entry of several viral pseudoparticles (pp), and fusion of HCVpp with liposomes. Silymarin but not silibinin inhibited genotype 2a NS5B RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) activity at concentrations 5 to 10 times higher than required for anti-HCVcc effects. Furthermore, silymarin had inefficient activity on the genotype 1b BK and four 1b RDRPs derived from HCV-infected patients. Moreover, silymarin did not inhibit HCV replication in five independent genotype 1a, 1b, and 2a replicon cell lines that did not produce infectious virus. Silymarin inhibited microsomal triglyceride transfer protein activity, apolipoprotein B secretion, and infectious virion production into culture supernatants. Silymarin also blocked cell-to-cell spread of virus. CONCLUSION: Although inhibition of in vitro NS5B polymerase activity is demonstrable, the mechanisms of silymarin's antiviral action appear to include blocking of virus entry and transmission, possibly by targeting the host cell

Differential In Vitro Effects of Intravenous versus Oral Formulations of Silibinin on the HCV Life Cycle and Inflammation

Silymarin prevents liver disease in many experimental rodent models, and is the most popular botanical medicine consumed by patients with hepatitis C. Silibinin is a major component of silymarin, consisting of the flavonolignans silybin A and silybin B, which are insoluble in aqueous solution. A chemically modified and soluble version of silibinin, SIL, has been shown to potently reduce hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA levels in vivo when administered intravenously. Silymarin and silibinin inhibit HCV infection in cell culture by targeting multiple steps in the virus lifecycle. We tested the hepatoprotective profiles of SIL and silibinin in assays that measure antiviral and anti-inflammatory functions. Both mixtures inhibited fusion of HCV pseudoparticles (HCVpp) with fluorescent liposomes in a dose-dependent fashion. SIL inhibited 5 clinical genotype 1b isolates of NS5B RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) activity better than silibinin, with IC50 values of 40–85 µM. The enhanced activity of SIL may have been in part due to inhibition of NS5B binding to RNA templates. However, inhibition of the RdRps by both mixtures plateaued at 43–73%, suggesting that the products are poor overall inhibitors of RdRp. Silibinin did not inhibit HCV replication in subgenomic genotype 1b or 2a replicon cell lines, but it did inhibit JFH-1 infection. In contrast, SIL inhibited 1b but not 2a subgenomic replicons and also inhibited JFH-1 infection. Both mixtures inhibited production of progeny virus particles. Silibinin but not SIL inhibited NF-κB- and IFN-B-dependent transcription in Huh7 cells. However, both mixtures inhibited T cell proliferation to similar degrees. These data underscore the differences and similarities between the intravenous and oral formulations of silibinin, which could influence the clinical effects of this mixture on patients with chronic liver diseases

Fine-mapping, novel loci identification, and SNP association transferability in a genome-wide association study of QRS duration in African Americans

The electrocardiographic QRS duration, a measure of ventricular depolarization and conduction, is associated with cardiovascular mortality. While single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with QRS duration have been identified at 22 loci in populations of European descent, the genetic architecture of QRS duration in non-European populations is largely unknown. We therefore performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of QRS duration in 13,031 African Americans from ten cohorts and a transethnic GWAS meta-analysis with additional results from populations of European descent. In the African American GWAS, a single genome-wide significant SNP association was identified (rs3922844, P = 4 × 10−14) in intron 16 of SCN5A, a voltage-gated cardiac sodium channel gene. The QRS-prolonging rs3922844 C allele was also associated with decreased SCN5A RNA expression in human atrial tissue (P = 1.1 × 10−4). High density genotyping revealed that the SCN5A association region in African Americans was confined to intron 16. Transethnic GWAS meta-analysis identified novel SNP associations on chromosome 18 in MYL12A (rs1662342, P = 4.9 × 10−8) and chromosome 1 near CD1E and SPTA1 (rs7547997, P = 7.9 × 10−9). The 22 QRS loci previously identified in populations of European descent were enriched for significant SNP associations with QRS duration in African Americans (P = 9.9 × 10−7), and index SNP associations in or near SCN5A, SCN10A, CDKN1A, NFIA, HAND1, TBX5 and SETBP1 replicated in African Americans. In summary, rs3922844 was associated with QRS duration and SCN5A expression, two novel QRS loci were identified using transethnic meta-analysis, and a significant proportion of QRS–SNP associations discovered in populations of European descent were transferable to African Americans when adequate power was achieved

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A Measurement of the DR6 CMB Lensing Power Spectrum and its Implications for Structure Growth

We present new measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing over $9400$ sq. deg. of the sky. These lensing measurements are derived from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) CMB dataset, which consists of five seasons of ACT CMB temperature and polarization observations. We determine the amplitude of the CMB lensing power spectrum at $2.3\%$ precision ($43\sigma$ significance) using a novel pipeline that minimizes sensitivity to foregrounds and to noise properties. To ensure our results are robust, we analyze an extensive set of null tests, consistency tests, and systematic error estimates and employ a blinded analysis framework. The baseline spectrum is well fit by a lensing amplitude of $A_{\mathrm{lens}}=1.013\pm0.023$ relative to the Planck 2018 CMB power spectra best-fit $\Lambda$CDM model and $A_{\mathrm{lens}}=1.005\pm0.023$ relative to the $\text{ACT DR4} + \text{WMAP}$ best-fit model. From our lensing power spectrum measurement, we derive constraints on the parameter combination $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8 \equiv \sigma_8 \left({\Omega_m}/{0.3}\right)^{0.25}$ of $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8= 0.818\pm0.022$ from ACT DR6 CMB lensing alone and $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8= 0.813\pm0.018$ when combining ACT DR6 and Planck NPIPE CMB lensing power spectra. These results are in excellent agreement with $\Lambda$CDM model constraints from Planck or $\text{ACT DR4} + \text{WMAP}$ CMB power spectrum measurements. Our lensing measurements from redshifts $z\sim0.5$--$5$ are thus fully consistent with $\Lambda$CDM structure growth predictions based on CMB anisotropies probing primarily $z\sim1100$. We find no evidence for a suppression of the amplitude of cosmic structure at low redshiftsComment: 45+21 pages, 50 figures. Prepared for submission to ApJ. Also see companion papers Madhavacheril et al and MacCrann et a

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: High-resolution component-separated maps across one-third of the sky

Observations of the millimeter sky contain valuable information on a number of signals, including the blackbody cosmic microwave background (CMB), Galactic emissions, and the Compton-$y$ distortion due to the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect. Extracting new insight into cosmological and astrophysical questions often requires combining multi-wavelength observations to spectrally isolate one component. In this work, we present a new arcminute-resolution Compton-$y$ map, which traces out the line-of-sight-integrated electron pressure, as well as maps of the CMB in intensity and E-mode polarization, across a third of the sky (around 13,000 sq.~deg.). We produce these through a joint analysis of data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 4 and 6 at frequencies of roughly 93, 148, and 225 GHz, together with data from the \textit{Planck} satellite at frequencies between 30 GHz and 545 GHz. We present detailed verification of an internal linear combination pipeline implemented in a needlet frame that allows us to efficiently suppress Galactic contamination and account for spatial variations in the ACT instrument noise. These maps provide a significant advance, in noise levels and resolution, over the existing \textit{Planck} component-separated maps and will enable a host of science goals including studies of cluster and galaxy astrophysics, inferences of the cosmic velocity field, primordial non-Gaussianity searches, and gravitational lensing reconstruction of the CMB.Comment: The Compton-y map and associated products will be made publicly available upon publication of the paper. The CMB T and E mode maps will be made available when the DR6 maps are made publi

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 Gravitational Lensing Map and Cosmological Parameters

We present cosmological constraints from a gravitational lensing mass map covering 9400 sq. deg. reconstructed from CMB measurements made by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) from 2017 to 2021. In combination with BAO measurements (from SDSS and 6dF), we obtain the amplitude of matter fluctuations $\sigma_8 = 0.819 \pm 0.015$ at 1.8% precision, $S_8\equiv\sigma_8({\Omega_{\rm m}}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.840\pm0.028$ and the Hubble constant $H_0= (68.3 \pm 1.1)\, \text{km}\,\text{s}^{-1}\,\text{Mpc}^{-1}$ at 1.6% precision. A joint constraint with CMB lensing measured by the Planck satellite yields even more precise values: $\sigma_8 = 0.812 \pm 0.013$, $S_8\equiv\sigma_8({\Omega_{\rm m}}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.831\pm0.023$ and $H_0= (68.1 \pm 1.0)\, \text{km}\,\text{s}^{-1}\,\text{Mpc}^{-1}$. These measurements agree well with $\Lambda$CDM-model extrapolations from the CMB anisotropies measured by Planck. To compare these constraints to those from the KiDS, DES, and HSC galaxy surveys, we revisit those data sets with a uniform set of assumptions, and find $S_8$ from all three surveys are lower than that from ACT+Planck lensing by varying levels ranging from 1.7-2.1$\sigma$. These results motivate further measurements and comparison, not just between the CMB anisotropies and galaxy lensing, but also between CMB lensing probing $z\sim 0.5-5$ on mostly-linear scales and galaxy lensing at $z\sim 0.5$ on smaller scales. We combine our CMB lensing measurements with CMB anisotropies to constrain extensions of $\Lambda$CDM, limiting the sum of the neutrino masses to $\sum m_{\nu} < 0.12$ eV (95% c.l.), for example. Our results provide independent confirmation that the universe is spatially flat, conforms with general relativity, and is described remarkably well by the $\Lambda$CDM model, while paving a promising path for neutrino physics with gravitational lensing from upcoming ground-based CMB surveys.Comment: 30 pages, 16 figures, prepared for submission to ApJ. Cosmological likelihood data is here: https://lambda.gsfc.nasa.gov/product/act/actadv_prod_table.html ; likelihood software is here: https://github.com/ACTCollaboration/act_dr6_lenslike . Also see companion papers Qu et al and MacCrann et al. Mass maps will be released when papers are publishe