Influential Article Review - Based Demographic Predictions with Migration Uncertainty

This paper examines migration. We present insights from a highly influential paper. Here are the highlights from this paper: We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations’ Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated. For our overseas readers, we then present the insights from this paper in Spanish, French, Portuguese, and German

Five Steps to Teach Simple Sentence Writing to Students With Learning Disabilities

Many students with learning disabilities struggle with sentence writing fluency, the skill of quickly and accurately generating words that follow rules of semantics, spelling, syntax, and usage within sentence structures understandable to readers. Students who struggle with sentence writing fluency may face difficulty fully expressing their ideas while engaging in academic writing. In the present article, we describe how a combination of explicit instruction and fluency practice can improve the simple sentence writing fluency of students with learning disabilities. We detail how five design and delivery steps can help to create a supplemental writing intervention that addresses simple sentence structure, syntax, and usage

Toward Better Constrained Scattering Models for Natural Ice Crystals in the Visible Region

In this work, we introduce a method for constraining the optical scattering models of natural ice crystals based on in-situ measurements. Specifically the measured angular scattering functions for ice crystals can be used to compute a set of the asymmetry parameter (g) and the corresponding complexity parameter (Cp). It is demonstrated that the g-Cp relation can give valuable information on the morphology of ice crystal. The validity of the methods is shown from theoretical perspectives and the geometric-optics ray-tracing simulations. As an application, we investigate rimed ice crystals from in-situ measurements and found that (a) the Cp parameter is very well correlated with the surface riming degree and (b) only those models with both roughness and internal scattering can explain the observed g-Cp relation for rimed particles

The impact of seasonal variability in wildlife populations on the predicted spread of foot and mouth disease

Modeling potential disease spread in wildlife populations is important for predicting, responding to and recovering from a foreign animal disease incursion such as foot and mouth disease (FMD). We conducted a series of simulation experiments to determine how seasonal estimates of the spatial distribution of white-tailed deer impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of potential FMD outbreaks. Outbreaks were simulated in a study area comprising two distinct ecoregions in South Texas, USA, using a susceptible-latent-infectious-resistant geographic automata model (Sirca). Seasonal deer distributions were estimated by spatial autoregressive lag models and the normalized difference vegetation index. Significant (P < 0.0001) differences in both the median predicted number of deer infected and number of herds infected were found both between seasons and between ecoregions. Larger outbreaks occurred in winter within the higher deer-density ecoregion, whereas larger outbreaks occurred in summer and fall within the lower deer-density ecoregion. Results of this simulation study suggest that the outcome of an FMD incursion in a population of wildlife would depend on the density of the population infected and when during the year the incursion occurs. It is likely that such effects would be seen for FMD incursions in other regions and countries, and for other diseases, in cases in which a potential wildlife reservoir exists. Study findings indicate that the design of a mitigation strategy needs to take into account population and seasonal characteristics

Utah Urban Small-Scale Mixed Vegetable Production Costs and Returns - 5 Acres, 2015

Sample costs and returns to produce mixed vegetables under drip irrigation and sold through direct markets in the Davis, Salt Lake, and Utah County of Utah are presented in this fact sheet. It is intended to be a guide used to make production decisions,determine potential returns and prepare business and marketing plans

A Durable, Realistic, Low-Cost Training Model for Percutaneous Renal Access Using Ballistic Gelatin

The purpose of this study was to design and implement a durable, realistic, and low-cost phantom kidney model for percutaneous renal access that could improve a novice surgeon’s technical skills without compromising patient safety

Zinc Oxide Defect Microstructure and Surface Chemistry Derived from Oxidation of Metallic Zinc: Thin-Film Transistor and Sensor Behavior of ZnO Films and Rods

Zinc oxide thin films are fabricated by controlled oxidation of sputtered zinc metal films on a hotplate in air at temperatures between 250 and 450 °C. The nanocrystalline films possess high relative densities and show preferential growth in (100) orientation. Integration in thin‐film transistors reveals moderate charge carrier mobilities as high as 0.2 cm$^{2}$ V$^{-1}$s$^{-1}$. The semiconducting properties depend on the calcination temperature, whereby the best performance is achieved at 450 °C. The defect structure of the thin ZnO film can be tracked by Doppler‐broadening positron annihilation spectroscopy as well as positron lifetime studies. Comparably long positron lifetimes suggest interaction of zinc vacancies (V$^{Zn}$) with one or more oxygen vacancies (V$^{O}$) in larger structural entities. Such V$^{O}$‐V$^{Zn}$ defect clusters act as shallow acceptors, and thus, reduce the overall electron conductivity of the film. The concentration of these defect clusters decreases at higher calcination temperatures as indicated by changes in the S and W parameters. Such zinc oxide films obtained by conversion of metallic zinc can also be used as seed layers for solution deposition of zinc oxide nanowires employing a mild microwave‐assisted process. The functionality of the obtained nanowire arrays is tested in a UV sensor device. The best results with respect to sensor sensitivity are achieved with thinner seed layers for device construction

Creating a Discipline-specific Commons for Infectious Disease Epidemiology

Objective: To create a commons for infectious disease (ID) epidemiology in which epidemiologists, public health officers, data producers, and software developers can not only share data and software, but receive assistance in improving their interoperability. Materials and Methods: We represented 586 datasets, 54 software, and 24 data formats in OWL 2 and then used logical queries to infer potentially interoperable combinations of software and datasets, as well as statistics about the FAIRness of the collection. We represented the objects in DATS 2.2 and a software metadata schema of our own design. We used these representations as the basis for the Content, Search, FAIR-o-meter, and Workflow pages that constitute the MIDAS Digital Commons. Results: Interoperability was limited by lack of standardization of input and output formats of software. When formats existed, they were human-readable specifications (22/24; 92%); only 3 formats (13%) had machine-readable specifications. Nevertheless, logical search of a triple store based on named data formats was able to identify scores of potentially interoperable combinations of software and datasets. Discussion: We improved the findability and availability of a sample of software and datasets and developed metrics for assessing interoperability. The barriers to interoperability included poor documentation of software input/output formats and little attention to standardization of most types of data in this field. Conclusion: Centralizing and formalizing the representation of digital objects within a commons promotes FAIRness, enables its measurement over time and the identification of potentially interoperable combinations of data and software.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

End-to-end correlation for a C-12 hydrocarbon chain

Abstract The 19 F nuclear spin-lattice relaxation rate constants were measured as a function of magnetic field strength for 1,12-diaminododecane labeled at one end with a nitroxide radical and at the other with a trifluoromethyl group. The magnetic relaxation dispersion profile (MRD) reports the spectral density function appropriate to the end-to-end correlation function for the doubly labeled molecule. After extrapolation to zero concentration to eliminate the intermolecular relaxation contribution to relaxation, the resulting intramolecular MRD profile was compared with several model approaches. The rotational model for the spectral density functions as included in the Solomon-Bloembergen-Morgan equations does not describe the data well. The earlier model of Freed for nuclear spin relaxation induced by a freely diffusing paramagnetic co-solute is not rigorous for this case because the paramagnet is tethered to the observed nuclear spin and only a restricted space in the immediate vicinity of the nuclear spin is accessible for pseudo-translational diffusion of one end of the molecule with respect to the other. A generalization of the Torrey model for magnetic relaxation by translational diffusion developed by Nevzorov and Freed, which includes the effect of restrictions imposed by the finite length of the chain, describes the experiment within experimental errors. A simple modification of the Hwang-Freed model that does not specifically include the dynamical effects of the finite tether also provides a good approximation to the data when the tether chain is sufficiently long