Application of a Multi-Criteria Integrated Portfolio Model for Quantifying South Africa’s Crude Oil Import Risk

e availability of secure energy resources at sustainable quantities and affordable prices is fundamental to South Africa’s current objective of enhancing and sustaining its current growth trajectory. Economic reforms, since the early 1990s, have led to the economy growing at an average rate of almost 5% per annum. A major consequence of this strong growth is the rapid increase in domestic demand for oil energy. With small amounts of proven oil reserves, the rise in oil demand as an essential energy source has prompted an increasing reliance on external sources for domestic crude oil supplies. High oil prices, the extent of proven oil reserves, instability in major oil producing regions and the rise in ‘oil-nationalism’ have raised serious concerns about the security of South Africa’s oil supplies. In this context, a comprehensive understanding of oil import security risks is critical as it will guide in the formulation of energy policy framework aimed at alleviating the impact of oil import risks. This study utilises portfolio theory to provide quantitative measures of systematic and specific risks of South Africa’s crude oil imports over the period 1994 to 2007. It explains the relationship between supply sources diversification and oil energy security risks, and highlights the impact of different crude oil import policy adjustment strategies on the total crude oil import risk for South Africa. The results for the adjustment strategies show that: (a) a policy of having the same quantity of oil imported every month or a constant quantity of oil imported from the supply regions reduces both systematic and specific risks of oil import portfolio, and (b) a reduction in specific risks of South Africa’s oil imports can be achieved if some of the Middle Eastern supplies can be diversified to less risk regions of Europe, North America and Russia.Oil Import Risks, Portfolio Theory, Analytical Hierarchy Process

Equity in maternal health in South Africa: analysis of health service access and health status in a national household survey

Background: South Africa is increasingly focused on reducing maternal mortality. Documenting variation in access to maternal health services across one of the most inequitable nations could assist in re-direction of resources. Methods: Analysis draws on a population-based household survey that used multistage-stratified sampling. Women, who in the past two years were pregnant (1113) or had a child (1304), completed questionnaires and HIV testing. Distribution of access to maternal health services and health status across socio-economic, education and other population groups was assessed using weighted data. Findings: Poorest women had near universal antenatal care coverage (ANC), but only 39.6% attended before 20 weeks gestation; this figure was 2.7-fold higher in the wealthiest quartile (95%CI adjusted odds ratio = 1.2-6.1). Women in rural-formal areas had lowest ANC coverage (89.7%), percentage completing four ANC visits (79.7%) and only 84.0% were offered HIV testing. Testing levels were highest among the poorest quartile (90.1% in past two years), but 10% of women above 40 or with low education had never tested. Skilled birth attendant coverage (overall 95.3%) was lowest in the poorest quartile (91.4%) and rural formal areas (85.6%). Around two thirds of the wealthiest quartile, of white and of formally-employed women had a doctor at childbirth, 11-fold higher than the poorest quartile. Overall, only 44.4% of pregnancies were planned, 31.7% of HIV-infected women and 68.1% of the wealthiest quartile. Self-reported health status also declined considerably with each drop in quartile, education level or age group. Conclusions: Aside from early ANC attendance and deficiencies in care in rural-formal areas, inequalities in utilisation of services were mostly small, with some measures even highest among the poorest. Considerably larger differences were noted in maternal health status across population groups. This may reflect differences between these groups in quality of care received, HIV infection and in social determinants of health

Mapping male circumcision for HIV prevention efforts in sub-Saharan Africa

Background HIV remains the largest cause of disease burden among men and women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of female-to-male transmission of HIV by 50–60%. The World Health Organization (WHO) and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) identified 14 priority countries for VMMC campaigns and set a coverage goal of 80% for men ages 15–49. From 2008 to 2017, over 18 million VMMCs were reported in priority countries. Nonetheless, relatively little is known about local variation in male circumcision (MC) prevalence. Methods We analyzed geo-located MC prevalence data from 109 household surveys using a Bayesian geostatistical modeling framework to estimate adult MC prevalence and the number of circumcised and uncircumcised men aged 15–49 in 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa at a 5 × 5-km resolution and among first administrative level (typically provinces or states) and second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. Results We found striking within-country and between-country variation in MC prevalence; most (12 of 14) priority countries had more than a twofold difference between their first administrative level units with the highest and lowest estimated prevalence in 2017. Although estimated national MC prevalence increased in all priority countries with the onset of VMMC campaigns, seven priority countries contained both subnational areas where estimated MC prevalence increased and areas where estimated MC prevalence decreased after the initiation of VMMC campaigns. In 2017, only three priority countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania) were likely to have reached the MC coverage target of 80% at the national level, and no priority country was likely to have reached this goal in all subnational areas. Conclusions Despite MC prevalence increases in all priority countries since the onset of VMMC campaigns in 2008, MC prevalence remains below the 80% coverage target in most subnational areas and is highly variable. These mapped results provide an actionable tool for understanding local needs and informing VMMC interventions for maximum impact in the continued effort towards ending the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa

Variable modeling of spatially distributed random interval observation

Includes bibliographical references

Small-area variation of cardiovascular diseases and select risk factors and their association to household and area poverty in South Africa: Capturing emerging trends in South Africa to better target local level interventions.

BackgroundOf the total 56 million deaths worldwide during 2012, 38 million (68%) were due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), particularly cardiovascular diseases (17.5 million deaths) cancers (8.2 million) which represents46.2% and 21.7% of NCD deaths, respectively). Nearly 80 percent of the global CVD deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Some of the major CVDs such as ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke and CVD risk conditions, namely, hypertension and dyslipidaemia share common modifiable risk factors including smoking, unhealthy diets, harmful use of alcohol and physical inactivity. The CVDs are now putting a heavy strain of the health systems at both national and local levels, which have previously largely focused on infectious diseases and appalling maternal and child health. We set out to estimate district-level co-occurrence of two cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), namely, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke; and two major risk conditions for CVD, namely, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in South Africa.MethodThe analyses were based on adults health collected as part of the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (SANHANES). We used joint disease mapping models to estimate and map the spatial distributions of risks of hypertension, self-report of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke and dyslipidaemia at the district level in South Africa. The analyses were adjusted for known individual social demographic and lifestyle factors, household and district level poverty measurements using binary spatial models.ResultsThe estimated prevalence of IHD, stroke, hypertension and dyslipidaemia revealed high inequality at the district level (median value (range): 5.4 (0-17.8%); 1.7 (0-18.2%); 32.0 (12.5-48.2%) and 52.2 (0-71.7%), respectively). The adjusted risks of stroke, hypertension and IHD were mostly high in districts in the South-Eastern parts of the country, while that of dyslipidaemia, was high in Central and top North-Eastern corridor of the country.ConclusionsThe study has confirmed common modifiable risk factors of two cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), namely, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke; and two major risk conditions for CVD, namely, hypertension and dyslipidaemia. Accordingly, an integrated intervention approach addressing cardiovascular diseases and associated risk factors and conditions would be more cost effective and provide stronger impacts than individual tailored interventions only. Findings of excess district-level variations in the CVDs and their risk factor profiles might be useful for developing effective public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing behavioural risk factors including harmful use of alcohol, physical inactivity and high salt intake

Growing inequities in maternal health in South Africa: a comparison of serial national household surveys

Abstract Background Rates of maternal mortality and morbidity vary markedly, both between and within countries. Documenting these variations, in a very unequal society like South Africa, provides useful information to direct initiatives to improve services. The study describes inequalities over time in access to maternal health services in South Africa, and identifies differences in maternal health outcomes between population groups and across geographical areas. Methods Data were analysed from serial population-level household surveys that applied multistage-stratified sampling. Access to maternal health services and health outcomes in 2008 (n = 1121) were compared with those in 2012 (n = 1648). Differences between socio-economic quartiles were quantified using the relative (RII) and slope (SII) index of inequality, based on survey weights. Results High levels of inequalities were noted in most measures of service access in both 2008 and 2012. Inequalities between socio-economic quartiles worsened over time in antenatal clinic attendance, with overall coverage falling from 97.0 to 90.2 %. Nationally, skilled birth attendance remained about 95 %, with persistent high inequalities (SII = 0.11, RII = 1.12 in 2012). In 2012, having a doctor present at childbirth was higher than in 2008 (34.4 % versus 27.8 %), but inequalities worsened. Countrywide, levels of planned pregnancy declined from 44.6 % in 2008 to 34.7 % in 2012. The RII and SII rose over this period and in 2012, only 22.4 % of the poorest quartile had a planned pregnancy. HIV testing increased substantially by 2012, though remains low in groups with a high HIV prevalence, such as women in rural formal areas, and from Gauteng and Mpumalanga provinces. Marked deficiencies in service access were noted in the Eastern Cape ad North West provinces. Conclusions Though some population-level improvements occurred in access to services, inequalities generally worsened. Low levels of planned pregnancy, antenatal clinic access and having a doctor present at childbirth among poor women are of most concern. Policy makers should carefully balance efforts to increase service access nationally, against the need for programs targeting underserved populations

Improving estimates of district HIV prevalence and burden in South Africa using small area estimation techniques.

Many countries, including South Africa, have implemented population-based household surveys to estimate HIV prevalence and the burden of HIV infection. Most household HIV surveys are designed to provide reliable estimates down to only the first subnational geopolitical level which, in South Africa, is composed of nine provinces. However HIV prevalence estimates are needed down to at least the second subnational level in order to better target the delivery of HIV care, treatment and prevention services. The second subnational level in South Africa is composed of 52 districts. Achieving adequate precision at the second subnational level therefore requires either a substantial increase in survey sample size or use of model-based estimation capable of incorporating other pre-existing data. Our purpose is demonstration of the efficacy of relatively simple small-area estimation of HIV prevalence in the 52 districts of South Africa using data from the South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behavior Survey, 2012, district-level HIV prevalence estimates obtained from testing of pregnant women who attended antenatal care (ANC) clinics in 2012, and 2012 demographic data. The best-fitting model included only ANC prevalence and dependency ratio as out-of-survey predictors. Our key finding is that ANC prevalence was the superior auxiliary covariate, and provided substantially improved precision in many district-level estimates of HIV prevalence in the general population. Inclusion of a district-level spatial simultaneously autoregressive covariance structure did not result in improved estimation

Prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and associated factors among HIV positive educators: Findings from the 2015/6 survey of Health of Educators in Public Schools in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION:In many sub-Saharan African countries, confronting the dual epidemic of HIV and NCDs is a public health priority especially in high HIV burden countries such as South Africa. Evidence shows that poor health as a consequence of NCDs and HIV among the workforce increases absenteeism and leads to decrease in productivity. However, the prevalence of these co-occurring chronic conditions and associated factors is unknown in the educator workforce. Improved understanding has implications for their management and wellbeing of educators. This paper reports the prevalence of selected NCDs and associated factors among HIV positive educators in South Africa using the 2015/6 survey of Educators in Public Schools in South Africa. METHODS:This was a second-generation surveillance undertaken among educators in selected public schools in all nine provinces in South Africa. A multi-stage stratified cluster design with probability proportional to size sampling was used to draw a random sample of schools. Factors associated with presence of NCDs were determined using a multivariate backward stepwise logistic regression analysis. RESULTS:A total of 1 365 schools were sampled within which 21 495 (85.5%) educators were interviewed. Out of 2691, HIV Positive educators that responded to the questions on NCDs, 36.9% reported having NCDs. The most commonly reported NCDs were high blood pressure (17.4%), and stomach ulcers (13.5%). The increased odds of reporting the presence of NCDs was significantly associated with being female than male [aOR = 1.5: 95% CI (1.1-1.9), p<0.002], age 45 to 54 years [aOR = 1.8: 95% CI (1.4-2.2), p = p<0.001], and age 55 years and older than those 18 to 24 years [aOR = 2.7: 95% CI (1.8-3.9), p<0.001). The decreased odds of reporting the presence of NCDs was significantly associated with not being absent from school for health reasons [aOR = 0.7: 95% CI (0.6-0.9), p = 0.003]. CONCLUSION:NCDs care and active screening should be an integral part of HIV programmes including interventions such as prevention, treatment, care and support amongst public school educators in SA. The education department will need to invest in health promotion intervention programmes to prevent and mitigate the negative impact of NCDs and HIV on the sector

Multivariate logistic regression analysis of factors associated with access to maternal health services in South Africa: Early antenatal attendance, skilled birth attendance and having a doctor present at childbirth.

<p>In women who had a child in past 2 years. OR odds ratio; CI confidence interval.</p>#<p>Category omitted as no failures occurred in group.</p

Utilzation of antenatal clinic services and skilled birth attendance in South Africa.

<p>Utilzation of antenatal clinic services and skilled birth attendance, by district in South Africa, findings of national survey.</p