International Assessments of the Vulnerability of the Coastal Zone to Climate Change, Including an Australian Perspective

Australia, and considers global, and in some cases national, assessments of vulnerability to climate change to evaluate the implications for the Australian coast, or to assess the applicability of particular approaches and methods to Australia. Climate change vulnerability assessment aims at assisting policymakers in adequately responding to the challenge of climate change by investigating how projected changes in the Earth\u27s climate may affect natural systems and human activities. Generally studies consider, exposure or susceptibility of natural coastal systems, the effect on socio-economic systems (“impact assessment”), and/or how human actions may reduce adverse effects of climate change on those systems or activities (“adaptation assessment”, a measure of adaptive capacity). The framework for a climate change vulnerability assessment depends on the system under consideration, stressors, responses (effects), and actions (adaptation). It is important that each assessment is undertaken at the relevant spatial and temporal scales, and the results are often appropriate only at those scales

Effect of culling on individual badger (Meles meles) behaviour: potential implications for bovine tuberculosis transmission

1. Culling wildlife as a form of disease management can have unexpected and sometimes counterproductive outcomes. In the UK, badgers (Meles meles) are culled in efforts to reduce badger-to-cattle transmission of Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB). However, culling has previously been associated with both increased and decreased incidence of M. bovis infection in cattle. 2. The adverse effects of culling have been linked to cull-induced changes in badger ranging, but such changes are not well documented at the individual level. Using GPS-collars, we characterised individual badger behaviour within an area subjected to widespread industry-led culling, comparing it with the same area before culling and with three unculled areas. 3. Culling was associated with a 61% increase (95% CI 27-103%) in monthly home range size, a 39% increase (95% CI 28-51%) in nightly maximum distance from the sett, and a 17% increase (95% CI 11-24%) in displacement between successive GPS-collar locations recorded at 20-minute intervals. Despite travelling further, we found a 91.2 minute (95% CI 67.1-115.3 minute) reduction in the nightly activity time of individual badgers associated with culling. These changes became apparent while culls were ongoing and persisted after culling ended. 4. Expanded ranging in culled areas was associated with individual badgers visiting 45% (95% CI 15-80%) more fields each month, suggesting that surviving individuals had the opportunity to contact more cattle. Moreover, surviving badgers showed a 19.9-fold increase (95% CI 10.8-36.4 increase) in the odds of trespassing into neighbouring group territories, increasing opportunities for intergroup contact. 5. Synthesis and Applications: Badger culling was associated with behavioural changes among surviving badgers which potentially increased opportunities for both badger-to-badger and badger-to-cattle transmission of M. bovis. Furthermore, by reducing the time badgers spent active, culling may have reduced badgers’ accessibility to shooters, potentially undermining subsequent population control efforts. Our results specifically illustrate the challenges posed by badger behaviour to cull-based TB control strategies and furthermore, they highlight the negative impacts culling can have on integrated disease control strategies

Management preferences in stage I non-seminomatous germ cell tumours of the testis: an investigation among patients, controls and oncologists.

Increasingly, treatment choices leading to the same survival outcome can be offered to cancer patients (e.g. mastectomy or conservative surgery in early breast cancer). Two approaches available for post-orchidectomy, stage I patients with non-seminomatous germ cell tumours of the testis (NSGCTT), particularly those at high risk of relapse, include immediate adjuvant chemotherapy (two courses) or surveillance, with chemotherapy (typically four courses) given only on relapse. The aim of this study was to investigate which approach patients prefer. Questionnaires were given to newly diagnosed NSGCTT patients, to patients with previous experience of the two options and to non-cancer controls, including specialist testicular tumour oncologists. Participants were asked to choose between immediate chemotherapy, surveillance or for the doctor to decide, at recurrence risk levels ranging from 10% to 90%. Questionnaires were returned by 207 subjects in nine different groups. The risk thresholds at which subjects' management preference changed, within apparently homogeneous groups, varied greatly, although at least one subject in each group selected adjuvant chemotherapy at the lowest (10%) level of risk. Subjects tended to favour options of which they had previous experience. Cancer patients wanted the doctor to decide more frequently than controls. The wide variability observed makes it difficult to predict which option an individual will select. Personality factors and personal circumstances, other than specific experience and knowledge, are obviously influential. Many patients would prefer their doctor to decide, but variability among oncologists is as great as that among their patients

Successive use of shared space by badgers and cattle: implications for Mycobacterium bovis transmission

Managing infectious disease demands understanding pathogen transmission. In Britain, transmission of Mycobacterium bovis from badgers (Meles meles) to cattle hinders the control of bovine tuberculosis (TB), but the mechanism of such transmission is uncertain. As badgers and cattle seldom interact directly, transmission might occur in their shared environment through contact with contamination such as faeces, urine and saliva. We used concurrent GPS collar tracking of badgers and cattle at four sites in Cornwall, southwest Britain, to test whether each species used locations previously occupied by the other species, within the survival time of M. bovis bacteria. Although analyses of the same data set showed that badgers avoided cattle, we found no evidence that this avoidance persisted over time: neither GPS-collared badgers nor cattle avoided space which had been occupied by the other species in the preceding 36 h. Defining a contact event as an animal being located <5 m from space occupied by the other species within the previous 36 h, we estimated that a herd of 176 cattle (mean herd size in our study areas) would contact badgers at least 6.0 times during an average 24-h period. Similarly, we estimated that a social group of 3.5 badgers (mean group size in our study areas) would contact cattle at least 0.76 times during an average night. Such frequent successive use of the same shared space, within the survival time of M. bovis bacteria, could potentially facilitate M. bovis transmission via the environment

Impacts of natural and human drivers on the multi-decadal morphological evolution of tidally-influenced deltas

The world's deltas are at risk of being drowned due to rising relative sea levels as a result of climate change, decreasing supplies of fluvial sediment, and human responses to these changes. This paper analyses how delta morphology evolves over multi-decadal timescales under environmental change using a process-based model. Model simulations over 10^2 years are used to explore the influence of three key classes of environmental change, both individually and in combination: (i) varying combinations of fluvial water and sediment discharges; (ii) varying rates of relative sea-level rise; and (iii) selected human interventions within the delta, comprising polder-dykes and cross-dams. The results indicate that tidal asymmetry and rate of sediment supply together affect residual flows and delta morphodynamics (indicated by sub-aerial delta area, rates of progradation and aggradation). When individual drivers of change act in combination, delta building processes such as the distribution of sediment flux, aggradation, and progradation are disrupted by the presence of isolated polder-dykes or cross-dams. This suggests that such interventions, unless undertaken at a very large scale, can lead to unsustainable delta building processes. Our findings can inform management choices in real-world tidally-influenced deltas, while the methodology can provide insights into other dynamic morphological systems

Use of farm buildings by wild badgers: implications for the transmission of bovine tuberculosis

Diseases transmitted from wildlife to livestock or people may be managed more effectively if it is known where transmission occurs. In Britain, farm buildings have been proposed as important sites of Mycobacterium bovis transmission between wild badgers (Meles meles) and cattle, contributing to the maintenance of bovine tuberculosis (TB). Farmers are therefore advised to exclude badgers from buildings. We used GPS-collars and remote cameras to characterise badgers’ use of farm buildings at four TB-affected sites in southwestern Britain. Across 54 GPS-collared badgers, 99.8% of locations fell ≥3m from farm buildings. Remote cameras deployed in feed stores recorded just 12 nights with badger visits among 3,134 store-nights of monitoring. GPS-collared badgers used space near farm buildings less than expected based on availability, significantly preferring land ≥100m from buildings. There was no positive association between badgers’ use of farm buildings and the infection status of either badgers or cattle. Six GPS-collared badgers which regularly visited farm buildings all tested negative for M. bovis. Overall, test-positive badgers spent less time close to farm buildings than did test-negative animals. Badger visits to farm buildings were more frequent where badger population densities were high. Our findings suggest that, while buildings may offer important opportunities for M. bovis transmission between badgers and cattle, building use by badgers is not a prerequisite for such transmission. Identifying ways to minimise infectious contact between badgers and cattle away from buildings is therefore a management priority

A preliminary assessment of the wildlife trade in badgers (Meles leucurus and Arctonyx spp.) (Carnivora: Mustelidae) in South Korea

We provide a preliminary assessment of a previously overlooked wildlife trade, the legal trade in badgers (Meles leucurus and Arctonyx spp.) and badger-derived products in South Korea. A new phase of the trade emerged in the 1990s with the establishment of wildlife farms to supply demand for badger as an edible and medicinal resource, including as a substitute for Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), a CITES Appendix I species. We trace the continued existence of badger farms to supply trade between 2001-2020, supplemented by imported badger-derived products and some apparent illegal harvesting of wild Meles leucurus in South Korea. The range of badger-derived products available to consumers has diversified during the last two decades and now encompasses human food, traditional medicine, cosmetics, dietary supplements and accessories. We recommend improved monitoring and regulation of the trade, given that legal farming, and potential illegal wild harvest, may present important risks to: (i) wild Meles leucurus populations in South Korea and Arctonyx spp. populations in Asia, which are currently poorly monitored; (ii) the welfare of traded badgers, as territorial mammals with specific social and housing needs; (iii) human health, with mustelid farms now in greater focus as potential sources of novel zoonotic diseases

Dealing with climate change through understanding tropical ocean-atmosphere climate interactions and their impacts on marine ecosystems.

Australian scientists are world leaders in developing robust palaeo-environmental reconstructions from coral archives, relevant for understanding Australian climate extremes. The key issues for advancing this field are the need for high-resolution marine paleoclimate records to place the present in the context of past natural climate and sea level change, and to understand the impact of those changes on marine ecosystems. We call for sustained investment in paleoclimate science, infrastructure, and personnel to advance these critical areas of research

Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle