The Forecasting Capacity of Housing Price Expectations

This study captures the essential elements of the price expectations of market participants in a rising market. Adopting a forward-looking approach, this paper explores the effectiveness of expectations as an indicator of forthcoming housing price changes in Hong Kong. Examination of the quarterly survey data from December 2003 to September 2007 indicates that both homeowners and non-homeowners tend to overestimate the probability of future housing price increases yet underestimate its volatility. This adds weight to the argument that market participants are generally not rational in the prediction of price movement. Homeowners, investors and potential home buyers have more or less the same level of confidence about the future market outlook. Like non-owners, they expect higher prices. The number of correct forecasts exceeds incorrect forecasts, suggesting that overall price expectations are fairly close to realization. It can be broadly concluded that the aggregate price expectations in the long run can be an appropriate forecasting tool for future market performance.Price expectations; Forecastability; Housing market; Hong Kong

Interference effects in f-deformed fields

We show how the introduction of an algeabric field deformation affects the interference phenomena. We also give a physical interpretation of the developed theory.Comment: 6 pages, Latex file, no figures, accepted by Physica Script

Two-polariton bound states in the Jaynes-Cummings-Hubbard model

We examine the eigenstates of the one-dimensional Jaynes-Cummings-Hubbard (JCH) model in the two-excitation subspace. We discover that two-excitation bound states emerge when the ratio of vacuum Rabi frequency to the tunneling rate between cavities exceeds a critical value. We determine the critical ratio as a function of the quasi-momentum quantum number, and indicate that the bound states carry a strong correlation in which the two polaritons appear to be spatially confined together.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Phase preparation by atom counting of Bose-Einstein condensates in mixed states

We study the build up of quantum coherence between two Bose-Einstein condensates which are initially in mixed states. We consider in detail the two cases where each condensate is initially in a thermal or a Poisson distribution of atom number. Although initially there is no relative phase between the condensates, a sequence of spatial atom detections produces an interference pattern with arbitrary but fixed relative phase. The visibility of this interference pattern is close to one for the Poisson distribution of two condensates with equal counting rates but it becomes a stochastic variable in the thermal case, where the visibility will vary from run to run around an average visibility of $\pi /4.$ In both cases, the variance of the phase distribution is inversely proportional to the number of atom detections in the regime where this number is large compared to one but small compared with the total number of atoms in the condensates.Comment: 9 pages, 6 PostScript figure, submitted to PR

Plant canopy shape and the influences on UV exposures to the canopy

The solar spectra at selected sites over hemispherical, conical and pinnacle plant canopy models has been evaluated with a dosimetric technique. The irradiance at the sites varies by up to a factor of 0.31 compared to the irradiance on a horizontal plane. The biologically effective (UVBE) exposures evaluated with the dosimetric technique at sites over the plant canopy are up to 19% of that on a horizontal plane. Compared to a spectroradiometer, the technique provides a more practicable method of measuring the UVBE exposures at multiple sites over a plant canopy. Usage of a dosimeter at one site to provide the exposures at that site for different sun angles introduces an error of more than 50%. Knowledge of the spectra allowed the UV and UVBE exposures to be calculated at each site along with the exposures to the entire canopies. These were dependent on the sun angle and the canopy shape. For plant damage, the UVBE was a maximum of about 1.4 mJ cm-2/min. Compared to the hemispherical canopy, the UVBE exposure for generalised plant damage was 45% less for the pinnacle canopy and 23% less for the conical canopy. The canopy exposures could not be determined from measurements of the ambient exposure

In situ real-time analysis of alloy film composition and segregation dynamics with parallel detection reflection electron energy loss spectroscopy

Real-time measurements of GexSi1 – x/Si(001) composition and segregation dynamics in Sn/Si(001) in molecular beam epitaxy are demonstrated using parallel detection reflection electron energy loss spectroscopy. Parallel detection enables quantitative acquisition of low-loss spectra in a time of < 500 µs and surface composition determination in GexSi1 – x/Si(001) via Ge L2,3 core loss analysis to a precision of approximately 2% in time of order 1 s. Segregation and trapping kinetics of monolayer thickness Sn films during Si epitaxy on Sn-covered Si(100) has also been studied using the Sn M4.5 core loss

Cluster Variation Approach to the Random-Anisotropy Blume-Emery-Griffiths Model

The random--anisotropy Blume--Emery--Griffiths model, which has been proposed to describe the critical behavior of $^3$He--$^4$He mixtures in a porous medium, is studied in the pair approximation of the cluster variation method extended to disordered systems. Several new features, with respect to mean field theory, are found, including a rich ground state, a nonzero percolation threshold, a reentrant coexistence curve and a miscibility gap on the high $^3$He concentration side down to zero temperature. Furthermore, nearest neighbor correlations are introduced in the random distribution of the anisotropy, which are shown to be responsible for the raising of the critical temperature with respect to the pure and uncorrelated random cases and contribute to the detachment of the coexistence curve from the $\lambda$ line.Comment: 14 pages (plain TeX) + 12 figures (PostScript, appended), Preprint POLFIS-TH.02/9