On Pictorial Organization

This is the text of The Lindley Lecture for 2002, given by Richard Wollheim (1923-2003), an British philosopher

Horizontal cooling towers: riverine ecosystem services and the fate of thermoelectric heat in the contemporary Northeast US

The electricity sector is dependent on rivers to provide ecosystem services that help regulate excess heat, either through provision of water for evaporative cooling or by conveying, diluting and attenuating waste heat inputs. Reliance on these ecosystem services alters flow and temperature regimes, which impact fish habitat and other aquatic ecosystem services. We demonstrate the contemporary (2000–2010) dependence of the electricity sector on riverine ecosystem services and associated aquatic impacts in the Northeast US, a region with a high density of thermoelectric power plants. We quantify these dynamics using a spatially distributed hydrology and water temperature model (the framework for aquatic modeling in the Earth system), coupled with the thermoelectric power and thermal pollution model. We find that 28.4% of thermoelectric heat production is transferred to rivers, whereas 25.9% is directed to vertical cooling towers. Regionally, only 11.3% of heat transferred to rivers is dissipated to the atmosphere and the rest is delivered to coasts, in part due to the distribution of power plants within the river system. Impacts to the flow regime are minimal, while impacts to the thermal regime include increased river lengths of unsuitable habitats for fish with maximum thermal tolerances of 24.0, 29.0, and 34.0 ° C in segments downstream of plants by 0.6%, 9.8%, and 53.9%, respectively. Our analysis highlights the interactions among electricity production, cooling technologies, aquatic impacts, and ecosystem services, and can be used to assess the full costs and tradeoffs of electricity production at regional scales

A Scale-Explicit Framework for Conceptualizing the Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Land Use Changes

Demand for locally-produced food is growing in areas outside traditionally dominant agricultural regions due to concerns over food safety, quality, and sovereignty; rural livelihoods; and environmental integrity. Strategies for meeting this demand rely upon agricultural land use change, in various forms of either intensification or extensification (converting non-agricultural land, including native landforms, to agricultural use). The nature and extent of the impacts of these changes on non-food-provisioning ecosystem services are determined by a complex suite of scale-dependent interactions among farming practices, site-specific characteristics, and the ecosystem services under consideration. Ecosystem modeling strategies which honor such complexity are often impenetrable by non-experts, resulting in a prevalent conceptual gap between ecosystem sciences and the field of sustainable agriculture. Referencing heavily forested New England as an example, we present a conceptual framework designed to synthesize and convey understanding of the scale- and landscape-dependent nature of the relationship between agriculture and various ecosystem services. By accounting for the total impact of multiple disturbances across a landscape while considering the effects of scale, the framework is intended to stimulate and support the collaborative efforts of land managers, scientists, citizen stakeholders, and policy makers as they address the challenges of expanding local agriculture

Dynamic modeling of nitrogen losses in river networks unravels the coupled effects of hydrological and biogeochemical processes

The importance of lotic systems as sinks for nitrogen inputs is well recognized. A fraction of nitrogen in streamflow is removed to the atmosphere via denitrification with the remainder exported in streamflow as nitrogen loads. At the watershed scale, there is a keen interest in understanding the factors that control the fate of nitrogen throughout the stream channel network, with particular attention to the processes that deliver large nitrogen loads to sensitive coastal ecosystems. We use a dynamic stream transport model to assess biogeochemical (nitrate loadings, concentration, temperature) and hydrological (discharge, depth, velocity) effects on reach-scale denitrification and nitrate removal in the river networks of two watersheds having widely differing levels of nitrate enrichment but nearly identical discharges. Stream denitrification is estimated by regression as a nonlinear function of nitrate concentration, streamflow, and temperature, using more than 300 published measurements from a variety of US streams. These relations are used in the stream transport model to characterize nitrate dynamics related to denitrification at a monthly time scale in the stream reaches of the two watersheds. Results indicate that the nitrate removal efficiency of streams, as measured by the percentage of the stream nitrate flux removed via denitrification per unit length of channel, is appreciably reduced during months with high discharge and nitrate flux and increases during months of low-discharge and flux. Biogeochemical factors, including land use, nitrate inputs, and stream concentrations, are a major control on reach-scale denitrification, evidenced by the disproportionately lower nitrate removal efficiency in streams of the highly nitrate-enriched watershed as compared with that in similarly sized streams in the less nitrate-enriched watershed. Sensitivity analyses reveal that these important biogeochemical factors and physical hydrological factors contribute nearly equally to seasonal and stream-size related variations in the percentage of the stream nitrate flux removed in each watershed

High Frequency Concurrent Measurements in Watershed and Impaired Estuary Reveal Coupled DOC and Decoupled Nitrate Dynamics

Rapid changes in land use, pollution inputs, and climate are altering the quantity, timing and form of materials delivered from watersheds to estuaries. To better characterize these alterations simultaneous measurements of biogeochemical conditions in watersheds and estuaries over a range of times scales are needed. We examined the strength of watershed-estuarine biogeochemical coupling using data of in situ measurements of nitrate, terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chloride collected over a seven-month period in a nitrogen impaired estuary in the northeastern US. The watershed was observed exerting strong control over concentrations of terrestrially derived DOC in the estuary, attributable to relative homogeneity of watershed sources derived from forested land use combined with relatively conservative behavior in estuarine waters. Estuarine nitrate patterns were more complex, suggesting the influence of heterogeneous watershed distribution of non-point and point sources and high reactivity of nitrate in the estuary. Understanding estuarine biogeochemical patterns will be advanced through greater use of simultaneous sub-hourly measurements of inflows, salinity and water quality estuaries and their upstream watersheds

Horizontal cooling towers: riverine ecosystem services and the fate of thermoelectric heat in the contemporary Northeast US

The electricity sector is dependent on rivers to provide ecosystem services that help regulate excess heat, either through provision of water for evaporative cooling or by conveying, diluting and attenuating waste heat inputs. Reliance on these ecosystem services alters flow and temperature regimes, which impact fish habitat and other aquatic ecosystem services. We demonstrate the contemporary (2000–2010) dependence of the electricity sector on riverine ecosystem services and associated aquatic impacts in the Northeast US, a region with a high density of thermoelectric power plants. We quantify these dynamics using a spatially distributed hydrology and water temperature model (the framework for aquatic modeling in the Earth system), coupled with the thermoelectric power and thermal pollution model. We find that 28.4% of thermoelectric heat production is transferred to rivers, whereas 25.9% is directed to vertical cooling towers. Regionally, only 11.3% of heat transferred to rivers is dissipated to the atmosphere and the rest is delivered to coasts, in part due to the distribution of power plants within the river system. Impacts to the flow regime are minimal, while impacts to the thermal regime include increased river lengths of unsuitable habitats for fish with maximum thermal tolerances of 24.0, 29.0, and 34.0 ◦C in segments downstream of plants by 0.6%, 9.8%, and 53.9%, respectively. Our analysis highlights the interactions among electricity production, cooling technologies, aquatic impacts, and ecosystem services, and can be used to assess the full costs and tradeoffs of electricity production at regional scales

Deliberative multiattribute valuation of ecosystem services across a range of regional land-use, socioeconomic, and climate scenarios for the upper Merrimack River watershed, New Hampshire, USA

We evaluate the relative desirability of alternative futures for the upper Merrimack River watershed in New Hampshire, USA based on the value of ecosystem services at the end of the 21st century as gauged by its present-day inhabitants. This evaluation is accomplished by integrating land-use and socioeconomic scenarios, downscaled climate projections, biogeophysical simulation models, and the results of a citizen-stakeholder deliberative multicriteria evaluation. We find that although there are some trade-offs between alternative plausible futures, for the most part, it can be expected that future inhabitants of the watershed will be most satisfied if land-use planning in the intervening years prioritizes water supply and flood protection as well as maintenance of existing farmland and forest cover. With respect to climate change, it is expected that future watershed inhabitants will be more negatively affected by the projected loss of snow cover than the anticipated increase in hot summer days. More important than the specific results for the upper Merrimack River watershed, this integrative assessment demonstrates the complex yet ultimately informative potential to link stakeholder engagement with scenario generation, ecosystem models, and multiattribute evaluation for informing regional-scale planning and decision making