Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tBACKGROUND: With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. METHODS: We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. FINDINGS: Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). INTERPRETATION: This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. FUNDING: European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.DENFREE projectEUPORIAS projectSPECS projectEuropean Commission's Seventh Framework Research ProgrammeConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeir

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

Open Access at publisher's web site: http://www.springerlink.com/content/b682734237171631

Transurethral resection of the prostate in Northern Nigeria, problems and prospects

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is the commonest disease of the urinary tract afflicting the ageing male and is the commonest neoplastic disease in men aged 50 years and above.</p> <p>Transurethral prostatectomy (TURP) is the ultimate treatment of choice for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) due mainly to the preference of minimally invasive surgery, long term relief of symptoms and cost effectiveness. It is however not available to the majority of Nigerians in need of prostatic surgery in Public Health Institutions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The records of patients who underwent prostatectomy in Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, over the period June 2001 to July 2007 were examined. The bio data of patients and laboratory investigations performed were retrieved.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Five Hundred and forty two patients were operated upon, out of which 40 were excluded due to open prostatectomy (22 patients), bladder neck stenosis (16 patients) or bladder tumour around the trigon (2 patients). The age range of the patients was 47–110 years with a mean of 67.2 years. 289 patients (80.1%) had urethral catheter in situ at presentation and 11 (3%) patients had suprapubic cystostomy of which only 3 (0.85%) had combined urethral stricture and BPH.</p> <p>Only 131 (26%) had their PSA measured which ranged from 2–100 ng/ml out of which 39(29.8% n = 131) patients had more than 4 ng/ml and cancer of the prostate and 1(0.8%, n = 131) patient had a PSA level of 4 ng/ml and malignant prostate.</p> <p>Hospital stay was 1–32 days (mean 7.9) and the mean follow up period was 5.6 months (range 0–60) and there were 17.5% complications comprising of urinary tract infection (UTI) 7.2%, Orchitis 2.2%, urinary incontinence 0.6%, atonic bladder 1%, erectile dysfunction 0.6%, cerebrovascular accident 0.4%, myocardial infarction 0.4%, deep vein thrombosis 0.4% and disseminated intravascular coagulopathy (DIC) 0.6% and 1.2% mortality. The cost of treatment inclusive of pre-admission investigations was US$615.00 (range US$ 300–1,300)</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Despite advances in minimally invasive therapy for LUTH/BPH, TURP is the optimum treatment of choice for the ageing male of sub-Saharan Africa. It is however not available to the majority of patients in this region due to poor health allocation and inadequate facilities and training.</p

A model of open-loop control of equilibrium position and stiffness of the human elbow joint

According to the equilibrium point theory, the control of posture and movement involves the setting of equilibrium joint positions (EP) and the independent modulation of stiffness. One model of EP control, the α-model, posits that stable EPs and stiffness are set open-loop, i.e. without the aid of feedback. The purpose of the present study was to explore for the elbow joint the range over which stable EPs can be set open-loop and to investigate the effect of co-contraction on intrinsic low-frequency elbow joint stiffness (

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

Rapidity and Centrality Dependence of Proton and Anti-proton Production from Au+Au Collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 130GeV

We report on the rapidity and centrality dependence of proton and anti-proton transverse mass distributions from Au+Au collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 130GeV as measured by the STAR experiment at RHIC. Our results are from the rapidity and transverse momentum range of |y|<0.5 and 0.35 <p_t<1.00GeV/c. For both protons and anti-protons, transverse mass distributions become more convex from peripheral to central collisions demonstrating characteristics of collective expansion. The measured rapidity distributions and the mean transverse momenta versus rapidity are flat within |y|<0.5. Comparisons of our data with results from model calculations indicate that in order to obtain a consistent picture of the proton(anti-proton) yields and transverse mass distributions the possibility of pre-hadronic collective expansion may have to be taken into account.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, submitted to PR

Domestic violence against women in eastern India: a population-based study on prevalence and related issues

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Violence against women is now widely recognised as an important public health problem, owing to its health consequences. Violence against women among many Indian communities on a regularly basis goes unreported. The objective of this study is to report the prevalence and other related issues of various forms of domestic violence against women from the eastern zone of India.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>It is a population-based study covering both married women (n = 1718) and men (n = 1715) from three of the four states of Eastern India selected through a systematic multistage sampling strategy. Interviews were conducted using separate pre-piloted structured questionnaires for women (victimization) and men (perpetration). Women were asked whether their husband or any other family members committed violent acts against them. And men were asked whether they had ever perpetrated violent acts against their wives. Three principle domestic violence outcome variables (physical, psychological and sexual violence) were determined by response to a set of questions for each variable. In addition, data on socio-economic characteristics were collected. Descriptive statistics, bi- and multivariate analyses were done.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall prevalence of physical, psychological, sexual and any form of violence among women of Eastern India were 16%, 52%, 25% and 56% respectively. These rates reported by men were 22%, 59%, 17% and 59.5% respectively. Men reported higher prevalence of all forms of violence apart from sexual violence. Husbands were mostly responsible for violence in majority of cases and some women reported the involvement of husbands' parents. It is found that various acts of violence were continuing among majority of women who reported violence. Some socio-economic characteristics of women have significant association with the occurrence of domestic violence. Urban residence, older age, lower education and lower family income are associated with occurrence of domestic violence. Multivariate logistic regressions revealed that the physical violence has significant association with state, residence (rural or urban), age and occupation of women, and monthly family income. Similar associations are found for psychological violence (with residence, age, education and occupation of the women and monthly family income) and sexual violence (with residence, age and educational level of women).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The prevalence of domestic violence in Eastern India is relatively high compared to majority of information available from India and confirms that domestic violence is a universal phenomenon. The primary healthcare institutions in India should institutionalise the routine screening and treatment for violence related injuries and trauma. Also, these results provide vital information to assess the situation to develop public health interventions, and to sensitise the concerned agencies to implement the laws related to violence against women.</p