Analyzing the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipelines Projects Regarding the Perceptions of the Stakeholders

Oil and Gas Pipeline (OGP) projects face a wide range of Risk Factors (RFs) at the design, construction and operational stages of the project particularly because of Third Party Disturbance (TPD) in the insecure environments. The lack of risk information and the root causes of pipelines’ failures are hindering the efforts of managing these risks. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the existing risk factors and recommend an effective Risk Mitigation Methods (RMMs) based on a holistic approach from the prospect of stakeholders’ interest. An investigation was carried out to identify the critical RFs and existing RMMs in different circumstances to overcome the problem of the historical records about the RFs and RMMs. The findings of the literature review were used to design a questionnaire survey to analyze RFs and evaluate the “usability and effectiveness” of the RMMs. The RFs were ranked by using Risk Index (RI) method based on the probability and severity levels of each RF. The survey results revealed that sabotage and terrorism as part of TPD, corruption and insecure areas are the most critical RFs, whereas, anti-corrosion efforts, underground pipelines and technologically advanced risk monitoring systems are the most effective RMMs. These ranking are vary based on the occupation of the stakeholder in OGPs; like the planners and the researchers said corruption is the most critical RF, and the researchers said that the advance risk monitoring systems are the most effective RMM

The Development of a Questionnaire Survey to Investigate the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipelines Projects

The scarcity of data about “the probability and severity” of the Risk Factors (RFs) and “the usability and effectiveness” of the Risk Mitigation Methods (RMMs) in Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) are hindering the efforts of risk mitigations in these projects. Consequently, this paper aims to develop a questionnaire survey to collect these require data to analyze the RFs and effectively evaluate the RMMs. Firstly, documents qualitative analysis were carried out to identify the RFs and RMMs in OGPs projects in different countries worldwide. Secondly, an industry-wide questionnaire survey was found to be an effective quantitative approach to analyze the “probability and severity” levels of the RFs and to evaluate the “usability and effectiveness” degrees of the RMMs. A pilot-like survey was significantly needed to improve the clarity of the questions and revise the ambiguous questions. As well as, to add the necessary queries and discard the unnecessary ones. Moreover, the pilot-like survey was used to test the functionality of the rating scales; and to improve the overall design of the survey. This survey filled by a number of experts in OGPs projects; their feedback was found helpful to write the final draft of the survey. The findings of this paper was a questionnaire survey that will be used in ongoing research about mitigating the RFs in OGPs projects. Furthermore, a few authors explained their procedure of designing such survey. Therefore, researchers in this field could use the findings and comments of this to design their surveys

Analyzing Stakeholders' Perceptions of the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects

Currently, there are enormous Risk Factors (RFs) threating the safety of Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) at all stages of projects. However, there is a lack of information about the root causes of pipeline failures and an absence of trusted data about the "probability and severity" levels of the RFs; this hinders the risk management in such projects. To improve the safety level of OGPs, this paper aims to explore stakeholders' perceptions about pipeline failures issues to analyze the RFs and recommend effective Risk Mitigation Methods (RMMs). Due to the lack of trusted data about the RFs and RMMs, this paper started with extensive investigations to identify the critical RFs and the applied RMMs in OGP projects in different circumstances. The findings of these investigations were used to design a questionnaire survey, which was distributed to analyze the "probability and severity" levels of the RFs and evaluate the "usability and effectiveness" degrees of the suggested RMMs. The survey results revealed that RFs related to Third-Party Disruption (TPD) including sabotage and terrorism, corruption and insecure areas are the most severe RFs. Additionally, based on the survey some RMMs such as anti-corrosion efforts, laying the pipelines underground and using technologically advanced risk-monitoring systems were found to be effective RMMs. These results were found to be varied based on the stakeholders' occupation in the projects; for example, the overall survey results indicated that terrorism and sabotage is the most critical RF, while the planners and the researchers identified corruption as the most critical one. It was also observed that using anti-corrosion measures such as isolation and cathodic protection would be the most effective RMM, while the other stakeholders have different perceptions like moving the pipelines underground an advanced risk-monitoring system are the most effective RMMs as indicated by the consultant, planner or designer and researches respectively

Analysing the Critical Risk Factors associated with Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects in Iraq

Although Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) are a safe and economical mode of transportation of petroleum products around the world, they face challenges caused by risk factors including safety, security, design, construction and operational risks due to Third Party Disruption (TPD) and acts of terrorism, particularly in developing and unstable countries like Iraq. A lack of knowledge about managing such risks and the scarcity of past data about pipeline failures, are hindering OGP risk management systems. This paper, therefore, focuses on identifying and analysing the risks caused by TDP in order to develop a holistic Risk Management Model (RMM). A semi-structured questionnaire was designed, using 30 risk factors identified through a comprehensive literature review, distributed to OGP stakeholders in Iraq, via an online survey tool, to collect the research data. SPSS was used to analyse the data and evaluate risk factors which were ranked in order of probability and severity level using a risk index method. A conceptual framework for the RMM is presented, based on the literature review and survey findings. The results reveal that terrorism, sabotage and theft are the most critical safety risks, official corruption and lawlessness the most influential factors for regulatory risks. Pipeline location “Hot-Zones” also have a serious impact on the failure of pipelines. A computer-based risk management model will be developed at the next stages of the study using the RMM and the results of the numerical risk analysis

Using stakeholders’ judgement and fuzzy logic theory to analyze the risk influencing factors in oil and gas pipeline projects: Case study in Iraq, Stage II

Oil and gas pipelines are safe and economic to petroleum products transportation. Nevertheless, enormous risk influencing factors are threatening the safety of these pipelines during the planning, construction and operations stages of these projects. Risk analysis in these projects is hindered by the inaccurate data about the probability and severity levels of the risk influencing factors. This problem is exacerbated further in troubled and developing countries, where the documentations and records are not at the best conditions. This study aims to identify and analyze potential risk influencing factors using a more integrated risk analysis framework. In this a such framework, the critical risk influencing factors and some of applied risk mitigation methods were identified based on a comprehensive review of pipelines projects worldwide. The impact of the identified factors and the effectiveness of mitigation methods were evaluated based on an industry-wide questionnaire survey, which was conducted in Iraq. A Computer-Based Risk Analysis Model (CBRAM) was designed to analyze the risk influencing factors using a fuzzy logic theory to consider any uncertainty that is associated with stakeholders’ judgments and data scarcity. The CBRAM has confirmed the most critical risk influencing factors, which this study has explained the effective methods to manage them

Analysing the Critical Risk Factors of Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects in Iraq

ABSTRACT Purpose- Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) are the safest mode of transportation for petroleum products. Yet, OGPs are facing a massive range of safety, design and operational risks such as sabotage, design defects, corrosion, material ageing, poor quality, misuse and geological disasters. These risks have resulted in OGP project management becoming more challenging and complex, particularly in developing countries with poor security systems. Additionally, there are two significant problems associated with OGP projects in these countries. The first is the different characteristics of risk factors, and the second is the real shortage of historical data required for any risk evaluation study. These problems mean that the currently accessible risk evolution methods cannot evaluate OGPs risk factors accurately. This paper aims to provide a proper understanding of the characteristics of OGPs risk factors in these countries. It also aims to identify the critical risk factors and their degree of probability and severity in pipeline projects, to avoid the loss of life and increased costs that result from risks to safety. Methodology- A quantitative research approach is adopted in this paper. Additionally, an industry survey was conducted by using a semi-structured questionnaire. The questionnaire was distributed online amongst the people who are associated with OGP projects in Iraq. SPSS 23 was used to analyse a total of 180 successful questionnaire responses. The survey findings in terms of critical risk factors and their ranking in order of risk index of severity and probability are presented in tables and graphs. Findings- A total of 30 risk factors associated with OGP projects have been identified as critical risk factors and ranked them into a scale of probability and severity index. Third-party disruption (such as terrorism, theft and sabotage) was found to be the most critical safety risk factor whereas the failure form pipe corrosion was ranked the top most operational risk. Implications- The list of OPG critical safety and operational risk factors provides the first-stage findings. These findings will be implemented to develop a conceptual framework and a computer-based model for OGPs risk management system at the next stage of the research

An Investigation of mitigating the Safety and Security Risks allied with Oil and Gas Pipeline Project: a case study in Iraq

Oil and Gas Pipeline (OGP) projects face a wide range of safety and security Risk Factors (RFs) globally, particularly in the oil and gas producing countries having insecure environment and poor safety records. Inadequate information about the causes of pipeline failures and poor knowledge about the safety and the security of the OGP hinder efforts of mitigating such risks. This paper, therefore, aims to develop a risk management system that bases on a holistic approach of identifying, analysing and ranking the associated RFs, and evaluating the possible Risk Mitigation Methods (RMMs), which are the first steps of this approach. A qualitative document analysis was adopted to design a semi-structured industry-wide questionnaire, which was conducted to collect stakeholders’ perceptions about existing RFs and RMMs for the OGP projects in Iraq. The survey results in terms of the probability and severity levels of the RFs were used as inputs for a computer-based risk analysis model. The model used the fuzzy theory to judge the probability and consequence levels of the RFs and rank them regards their degree of impact in the projects. The results revealed that terrorism, official corruption and insecure areas are the most critical risks. Similarly, the RMMs were evaluated based on their degree of efficacy to mitigate the risk in OGP projects. This paper presents a prototype of the risk management system that will be further developed in the next stage of the study

An Analysis of the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects using a Comprehensive Risk Management Framework

Risk Factors (RFs) associated with the design, construction and operation of Oil and Gas Pipeline (OGP) projects have a serious impact on the safety of a project. The limitations of the effective risk analysis techniques due to a lack of reliable risk data - particularly in insecure countries like Iraq where OGPs are suffering from sabotage attacks - frequently cause great challenges in the attempt to mitigate these risk factors and provide a systematic risk management system. This paper, therefore, aims to analyse OGPs' RFs more accurately using a more systematic and holistic Risk Management Framework (RMF). The RMF was designed under three steps. Step 1 focused on carrying out a comprehensive review to identify the RFs in OGP projects in different countries and some of the Risk Mitigation Methods (RMMs) used in these projects. Step 2 used a questionnaire survey to analyse the RFs regarding their influence on OGP projects and to evaluate the RMMs based on their degrees of effectiveness to mitigate the RFs. The ranking of the RFs indicated that proper attention needs to be paid to the question of what motivates third-party disruption to OGPs in Iraq like sabotage, terrorism and theft risks. Step 3 was about recommending some RMMs to mitigate the RFs in these projects based on the results of the survey. The RMF and its recommendations could be used to more effectively manage the RFs in OGP projects in troubled countries that have just begun to address such risks

Investigation of the Risk Factors Causing Safety and Delay Issues in Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction Projects

Building the new Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) without analyzing the potential Risk Factors (RFs) that influence the safety of these pipelines causes time and cost overrun in these projects. Quantifying the impact of the RFs on the duration of the projects is essential to provide an accurate estimate about the project duration and recognize the potential RFs that causing delay and safety issues in the projects. Identifying the RFs in the projects via literature review and analyzing their impact on the delivery time of the projects via a questionnaire survey and computer-based risk analysis model are the key methods adopted in the study. This study uses the Monte Carlo Simulation algorithm, which is integrated within @Risk Simulator to quantify the delay impact of the RFs. The @Risk simulator has the flexibility to integrated different risk distribution methods for each RF, which helps in overcoming the limitations of using ASTA Powerproject risk simulator to quantify the delay the projects, as done in a prior study. The @Risk simulator is useful in analyzing the delay in each task, working stage and overall project duration. The results provided by risk simulator is useful in understanding the sensitivity and the criticality of each RF that might cause delay issues in the projects. The outcomes of this study will help to the stakeholders, the decision-makers and the policy-makers of OGP projects to make sound decisions and enable them to take preventive actions of risk management while starting a new OGP project, which helps in minimizing the delay in the project

The Development of a Questionnaire Survey to Investigate the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipelines Projects

The scarcity of data about “the probability and severity” of the Risk Factors (RFs) and “the usability and effectiveness” of the Risk Mitigation Methods (RMMs) in Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) are hindering the efforts of risk mitigations in these projects. Consequently, this paper aims to develop a questionnaire survey to collect these require data to analyze the RFs and effectively evaluate the RMMs. Firstly, documents qualitative analysis were carried out to identify the RFs and RMMs in OGPs projects in different countries worldwide. Secondly, an industry-wide questionnaire survey was found to be an effective quantitative approach to analyze the “probability and severity” levels of the RFs and to evaluate the “usability and effectiveness” degrees of the RMMs. A pilot-like survey was significantly needed to improve the clarity of the questions and revise the ambiguous questions. As well as, to add the necessary queries and discard the unnecessary ones. Moreover, the pilot-like survey was used to test the functionality of the rating scales; and to improve the overall design of the survey. This survey filled by a number of experts in OGPs projects; their feedback was found helpful to write the final draft of the survey. The findings of this paper was a questionnaire survey that will be used in ongoing research about mitigating the RFs in OGPs projects. Furthermore, a few authors explained their procedure of designing such survey. Therefore, researchers in this field could use the findings and comments of this to design their surveys