Model-assisted predictions on prognosis in HNSCC: do we learn?

Dedicated software packages incorporating prognostic models are meant to aid physicians in making accurate predictions of prognosis. This study concerns 742 predictions of 5-year survival on consecutive newly diagnosed patients with head- and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The 5-year survival predictions made by the physicians are not compared with actual survival, but with a prediction made by OncologIQ, a dedicated software package. We used a linear regression and a linear mixed-effects model to look at absolute differences between both predictions and possible learning effects. Predictions made by the physicians were optimistic and inaccurate. Using the linear regression and linear mixed-effects models, the physicians’ learning effect showed little improvement per successive prediction. We conclude that prognostic predictions in general are imprecise. When given feedback on the model’s predicted survival, the accuracy increases, but only very modestly

Delayed diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma: a case series

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>In malign neoplasms, oral cancer is one of the important causes of mortality and morbidity. Squamous cell carcinoma is the most common form of oral cancers in adults and is related to risk factors such as smoking and alcohol consumption.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>In this article, we present three case reports of oral squamous cell carcinomas with delayed diagnosis. The first patient was a 52-year-old Turkish man, the second patient was a 61-year-old Turkish man and the third patient was a 60-year-old Turkish woman. All were referred to the Ankara University Faculty of Dentistry with pain, swelling and various complaints in their jaws.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Early diagnosis is of vital importance for the prognosis of the patients with oral squamous cell carcinomas. For this reason, dentists play a crucial role in the early detection and prevention of oral cancers.</p

Trends in postoperative radiotherapy delay and the effect on survival in breast cancer patients treated with conservation surgery

The adequate timing of adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) in breast cancer has become a subject of increasing interest in recent years. A population-based study was undertaken to determine the influence of demographic and clinical factors on the postoperative RT delay in patients treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and to assess the impact of delay on survival. In total, 7800 breast cancer patients treated with BCS and adjuvant RT between 1986 and 1998 in Yorkshire were included in the study. The median interval between surgery and the start of RT (S-RT interval) was 8 weeks (7 weeks for chemotherapy negative and 11 for chemotherapy positive patients). This interval increased substantially over time from 5 weeks during 1986-1988, irrespective of patients' chemotherapy status, to 10 and 17 weeks among chemotherapy negative and chemotherapy positive patients, respectively, in 1997-1998. The S-RT interval was also significantly influenced by travel time to RT centre, year and at which RT centre patient had the treatment (

Residence, income and cancer hospitalizations in British Columbia during a decade of policy change

BACKGROUND: Through the 1990s, governments across Canada shifted health care funding allocation and organizational foci toward a community-based population health model. Major concerns of reform based on this model include ensuring equitable access to health and health care, and enhancing preventive and community-based resources for care. Reforms may act differentially relative to specific conditions and services, including those geared to chronic versus acute conditions. The present study therefore focuses on health service utilization, specifically cancer hospitalizations, in British Columbia during a decade of health system reform. METHODS: Data were drawn from the British Columbia Linked Health Data resource; income measures were derived from Statistics Canada 1996 Census public use enumeration area income files. Records with a discharge (separation) date between 1 January 1991 and 31 December 1998 were selected. All hospitalizations with ICD-9 codes 140 through 208 (except skin cancer, code 173) as principal diagnosis were included. Specific cancers analyzed include lung; colorectal; female breast; and prostate. Hospitalizations were examined in total (all separations), and as divided into first and all other hospitalizations attributed to any given individual. Annual trends in age-sex adjusted rates were analyzed by joinpoint regression; longitudinal multivariate analyses assessing association of residence and income with hospitalizations utilized generalised estimating equations. Results are evaluated in relation to cancer incidence trends, health policy reform and access to care. RESULTS: Age-sex adjusted hospitalization rates for all separations for all cancers, and lung, breast and prostate cancers, decreased significantly over the study period; colorectal cancer separations did not change significantly. Rates for first and other hospitalizations remained stationary or gradually declined over the study period. Area of residence and income were not significantly associated with first hospitalizations; effects were less consistent for all and other hospitalizations. No interactions were observed for any category of separations. CONCLUSIONS: No discontinuities were observed with respect to total hospitalizations that could be associated temporally with health policy reform; observed changes were primarily gradual. These results do not indicate whether equity was present prior to health care reform. However, findings concur with previous reports indicating no change in access to health care across income or residence consequent on health care reform

Disarming the guarded prognosis: predicting survival in newly referred patients with incurable cancer

People affected by cancer want information about their prognosis but clinicians have trouble estimating and talking about it. We sought to determine the nature and accuracy of medical oncologists' estimates of life expectancy in newly referred patients with incurable cancer. With reference to each patient, medical oncologists estimated how long they thought 90, 50, and 10% of similar patients would live. These proportions were chosen to reflect worst case, predicted, and best case scenarios suitable for discussions. After a median follow-up of 35 months, 86 of the 102 patients had died with an observed median survival of 12 months. Oncologists' estimates of each patient's worst case, predicted and best case scenarios were well-calibrated: 10% of patients lived for fewer months than estimated for the worst 10% of similar patients; 50% lived for at least as long as estimated for 50% of similar patients (predicted survival), and 17% lived for more months than estimated for the best 10% of similar patients. Oncologists' estimates of each patient's predicted survival were imprecise: 29% were within 0.67–1.33 times the patient's actual survival, 35% were too optimistic (>1.33 times the actual survival), and 39% were too pessimistic (<0.67 times the actual survival). The proportions of patients with actual survival times bounded by simple multiples of their predicted survival were as follows: 61% between half to double their predicted, 6% at least three to four times their predicted, and 4% no more than 1/6 of their predicted; similar to the proportions in an exponential distribution (about 50%, 10% and 10% respectively). Ranges based on simple multiples of the predicted survival time appropriately convey prognosis and its uncertainty in newly referred people with incurable cancer

A randomised controlled trial of nurse-managed trial conclusion following early phase cancer trial participation

The effect of a nurse-managed intervention, for early phase cancer trial participants at trial conclusion, on psychosocial outcomes was evaluated at two cancer centres in the Midlands, England using a randomised controlled trial. It involved 117 patients who were participating in an early phase cancer clinical trial. It was a nurse-managed trial exit, which included a trial exit interview, trial feedback information leaflet and telephone follow-up compared with standard care at trial conclusion. Psychological distress at 1 week and 4–6 weeks post-trial conclusion, patient's knowledge and understanding and patient's satisfaction were assessed. The results showed there was no significant difference between the two groups regarding scores for anxiety and depression at time one and time two. There is some suggestion that the intervention reduced anxiety from trial conclusion to follow-up (P=0.27). Patients in both groups felt they had contributed to cancer research through trial participation. However, intervention patients were more likely to feel that they knew how the trial was going (P<0.001), knew how other people in the trial were doing (P=0.001), had all the feedback they needed about the trial they took part in (P<0.01) and knew how they would be followed up (P=0.02). Patient satisfaction with the intervention was high (median score=4.5 where 5 is greatest satisfaction). In conclusion, nurse-managed trial conclusion led to positive outcomes for patients who had recently completed a clinical trial