Fishing in Troubled Waters: The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Vietnam

https://www.grips.ac.jp/list/en/facultyinfo/wie-dainn/This study investigates trade diversion in Vietnam, driven by the US-China trade war, which provided Vietnamese firms with relatively favorable access to the US market. Analyzing US import data, we observe a substantial rise in imports of targeted goods from Vietnam due to the trade war. Utilizing microdata from Vietnamese firms, we establish empirical evidence that tariff hikes on Chinese products augmented the likelihood of Vietnamese firms in targeted industries becoming exporters. Employing tariff wedges as an instrumental variable, our findings indicate that firms transitioning into exporters witnessed a significant increase in productivity.Funding source: The study is supported by Grants-in-aid for scientific research (Grant No. 22K01456).technical repor

Impact of the US-China Trade War on Vietnam’s Labor Market

https://www.grips.ac.jp/list/en/facultyinfo/wie-dainn/Trade can significantly reduce informality in developing countries by fostering economic growth and creating formal employment opportunities. A large proportion of workers in developing countries such as Vietnam work in the informal sector, making them vulnerable and less productive. This study examines the short-term impact of the US–China trade war as a positive demand shock on the informality of Vietnam's labor market, using nationally representative data from the Vietnam Labor Force Survey from 2017 to 2019. We create an industry-level measure based on variations in tariff increases applied to Chinese goods, representing the tariff advantages granted to Vietnamese firms. The estimation results show that workers in industries with higher tariff advantages are less likely to be employed as informal or uninsured workers. By applying Goldberg and Pavcnik’s (2003) framework, we interpret these findings as indicating that Vietnamese firms perceived the US–China trade shock as a positive and permanent demand shock. To our knowledge, the empirical evidence presented in this study represents a rare investigation into the effects of the trade war on the labor market of a non-participating country. Additionally, the findings offer important implications for other developing countries by showing how Vietnam’s labor market and informality improved as firms took advantage of the new trade opportunities created by trade diversion.JEL Classification Codes: J46, F14, F16technical repor

The Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Women’s Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Vietnam

https://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/wie-dainn/This study investigates the impact of a large demand shock on the timing of women’s marital decisions and first childbirth experiences in Vietnam. Using the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in 2001 as an exogenous shock, we hypothesize that the reduction in women’s and men’s self-employment would delay family formation and childbirth, with the ultimate impact on marriage remaining ambiguous. Analyzing data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys, we find that both men and women are less likely to be self-employed in the face of a substantial trade shock. Notably, the decreasing impact on women's self-employment becomes more pronounced than that for men post-2012, a decade after the agreement's enforcement. Employing the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and survival analysis, we empirically demonstrate that increased exposure to trade postpones women's timing of marriage and first childbirth. On average, in 2013, the BTA resulted in a 4.43- and 4.45%-point decrease in the probability of entering marriage and becoming a mother, respectively. We also present suggestive evidence that increased exposure to trade liberalization eventually increases the likelihood of marriage and the number of children among women over 40.JFL Classification Codes: F6, J2, J3This work was supported by the Policy Research Center at National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies [Project Number: P231RP201].technical repor

Don’t ask for fair treatment? A gender analysis of ethnic discrimination, response to discrimination, and self-rated health among marriage migrants in South Korea

BACKGROUND: Ethnic discrimination is increasingly common nowadays in South Korea with the influx of migrants. Despite the growing body of evidences suggests that ethnic discrimination negatively impacts health, only few researches have been conducted on the association between ethnic discrimination and health outcomes among marriage migrants in Korea. This study sought to examine how ethnic discrimination and response to the discrimination are related to self-rated health and whether the association differs by victim\u27s gender. METHODS: We conducted two-step analysis using cross-sectional dataset from the \u27National Survey of Multicultural Families 2012\u27. First, we examined the association between perceived ethnic discrimination and self-rated health among 14,406 marriage migrants in Korea. Second, among the marriage migrants who experienced ethnic discrimination (n=5,880), we examined how response to discrimination (i.e., whether or not asking for fair treatment) is related to poor self-rated health. All analyses were conducted after being stratified by the migrant\u27s gender. RESULTS: This research found the significant association between ethnic discrimination and poor self-rated health among female marriage migrants (OR: 1.53, 95 % CI: 1.32, 1.76), but not among male marriage migrants (OR: 1.16, 95 % CI: 0.81, 1.66). In the restricted analysis with marriage migrants who experienced ethnic discrimination, compared to the group who did not ask for fair treatment, female marriage migrants who asked for fair treatment were more likely to report poor self-rated health (OR: 1.21, 95 % CI: 0.98, 1.50); however, male marriage migrants who asked for fair treatment were less likely to report poor self-rated health (OR: 0.65, 95 % CI: 0.36, 1.04) although both were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to investigate gender difference in the association between response to ethnic discrimination and self-rated health in South Korea. We discussed that gender may play an important role in the association between response to discrimination and self-rated health among marriage migrants in Korea. In order to prevent discrimination which could endanger the health of ethnic minorities including marriage migrants, relevant policies are needed

Wage Structure and Gender Earnings Differentials in China and India

This study analyzes how changes in overall wage inequality and gender-specific factors affected the gender wage gap in Chinese and Indian urban labor markets in the 1990s and 2000s. Analysis of micro data present that contrasting evolutionary patterns in gender wage gap emerged over the period, showing a widened wage gap in China but a dramatically reduced gap in India. In both countries, female workers’ increased skill levels contributed to reducing the gender wage gap. However, increases in observed prices of education and experience worked unfavorably for high-skilled women, counterbalancing their improvement in labor market qualifications. Decomposition analyses show that China’s widened gap was attributable to gender-specific factors such as deteriorated observable and unobservable labor market qualifications and increased discrimination, especially against low- and middle-skilled female workers. For India, gender-specific factors and relatively high wage gains of low- and middle-skilled workers reduced the male–female wage gap.JEL Classification Codes: J21, J24, J31http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/wie-dainn

Legal Entitlement and Bargaining Power of Marriage Immigrants in Korea

The fraction of marriages between South Korean males and brides from other Asian countries has sharply increased since 1990 reaching around 10% of new marriages in 2005. We employ a large data set collected in 2012 to investigate the impact of citizenship acquisition of these brides on their bargaining power in the household and labor market. We employ propensity score matching using detailed information of brides, their spouses, and households required for nationality application. Our results show that legal entitlement of marriage immigrants raises the chance of being hired as a regular worker and increases decision power in a household. The findings in this paper imply that a legal framework is an important determinant of the bargaining power of immigrants in the labor market and households.JEL Classification Codes: J12, J15, J18http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/wie-dainn

The Five-Day Workweek System and Investor Inattention on Friday Earnings Announcements: Evidence from Korea\u27s Stock Market

Do investors always allocate their attention properly? If not, what potentially drives investors inattention? This paper shows that work schedule can have an influence on the level of attention investors pay. Using the introduction of the five-day workweek system in financial sector of Korea in 2002 as a natural experiment, the paper suggests work schedule can be a key factor driving investor inattention to Friday earnings announcements. Our stock return analyses show stronger immediate response and weaker delayed response to Friday news under the six-day workweek system. The trend was, however, reversed under the five-day workweek system, showing more sluggish immediate response and stronger delayed response to Friday earnings announcements. These findings state that the trade-off between weekend distraction and additional working hours during weekend determines investors attention to Friday earnings announcements.http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/wie-dainn