Global trends in molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 during 2000-2007

Objective To estimate the global and regional distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants between 2000 and 2007. Design Country-specific HIV-1 molecular epidemiology data were combined with estimates of the number of HIV-infected people in each country. Method Cross-sectional HIV-1 subtyping data were collected from 65913 samples in 109 countries between 2000 and 2007. The distribution of HIV-1 subtypes in individual countries was weighted according to the number of HIV-infected people in each country to generate estimates of regional and global HIV-1 subtype distribution for the periods 2000–2003 and 2004–2007. Results Analysis of the global distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants in the two time periods indicated a broadly stable distribution of HIV-1 subtypes worldwide with a notable increase in the proportion of circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), a decrease in unique recombinant forms (URFs), and an overall increase in recombinants. In 2004–2007, subtype C accounted for nearly half (48%) of all global infections, followed by subtypes A (12%) and B (11%), CRF02_AG (8%), CRF01_AE (5%), subtype G (5%) and D(2%). Subtypes F, H, J and K together cause fewer than 1% of infections worldwide. Other CRFs and URFs are each responsible for 4% of global infections, bringing the combined total of worldwide CRFs to 16% and all recombinants (CRFs plus URFs) to 20%. Conclusions The global and regional distributions of individual subtypes and recombinants are broadly stable, although CRFs may play an increasing role in the HIV pandemic. The global diversity of HIV-1 poses a formidable challenge to HIV vaccine development.Fil: Hemelaar, Joris. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Gouwsb, Eleanor. UNAIDS; SuizaFil: Ghysb, Peter D.. UNAIDS; SuizaFil: Osmanov, Saladin. WHO-UNAIDS HIV Vaccine Initiative; SuizaFil: WHO-UNAIDS Network for HIV Isolation and Characterisation.Fil: Salomon, Horacio Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay; Argentin

Global and Regional Estimates for Subtype-Specific Therapeutic and Prophylactic HIV-1 Vaccines: A Modeling Study

Global HIV-1 genetic diversity forms a major obstacle to the development of an HIV vaccine. It may be necessary to employ subtype-specific HIV-1 vaccines in individual countries according to their HIV-1 subtype distribution. We estimated the global and regional need for subtype-specific HIV-1 vaccines. We took into account the proportions of different HIV-1 variants circulating in each country, the genetic composition of HIV-1 recombinants, and the different genome segments (gag, pol, env) that may be incorporated into vaccines. We modeled different scenarios according to whether countries would employ subtype-specific HIV-1 vaccines against (1) the most common subtype; (2) subtypes contributing more than 5% of HIV infections; or (3) all circulating subtypes. For therapeutic vaccines targeting the most common HIV-1 subtype in each country, 16.5 million doses of subtype C vaccine were estimated globally, followed by subtypes A (14.3 million) and B (4.2 million). A vaccine based on env required 2.6 million subtype E doses, and a vaccine based on pol required 4.8 million subtype G doses. For prophylactic vaccines targeting the most common HIV-1 subtype in each country, 1.9 billion doses of subtype A vaccine were estimated globally, followed by subtype C (1.1 billion) and subtype B (1.0 billion). A vaccine based on env required 1.2 billion subtype E doses, and a vaccine based on pol required 0.3 billion subtype G doses. If subtype-specific HIV-1 vaccines are also directed against less common subtypes in each country, vaccines targeting subtypes D, F, H, and K are also needed and would require up to five times more vaccine doses in total. We conclude that to provide global coverage, subtype-specific HIV-1 vaccines need to be directed against subtypes A, B, and C. Vaccines targeting env also need to include subtype E and those targeting pol need to include subtype G.S

Global associations of key populations with HIV-1 recombinants: a systematic review, global survey, and individual participant data meta-analysis

Introduction: Global HIV infections due to HIV-1 recombinants are increasing and impede prevention and treatment efforts. Key populations suffer most new HIV infections, but their role in the spread of HIV-1 recombinants is unknown. We conducted a global analysis of the associations between key populations and HIV-1 recombinants. Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Global Health for HIV-1 subtyping studies published from 1/1/1990 to 31/12/2015. Unpublished data was collected through a global survey. We included studies with HIV-1 subtyping data of key populations collected during 1990-2015. Key populations assessed were heterosexual people (HET), men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), vertical transmissions (VERT), commercial sex workers (CSW), and transfusion-associated infections (BLOOD). Logistic regression was used to determine associations of key populations with HIV-1 recombinants. Subgroup analyses were performed for circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), unique recombinant forms (URFs), regions, and time periods. Results: Eight hundred and eighty five datasets including 77,284 participants from 83 countries were included. Globally, PWID were associated with the greatest odds of recombinants and CRFs (OR 2.6 [95% CI 2.46-2.74] and 2.99 [2.83-3.16]), compared to HET. CSW were associated with increased odds of recombinants and URFs (1.59 [1.44-1.75] and 3.61 [3.15-4.13]). VERT and BLOOD were associated with decreased odds of recombinants (0.58 [0.54-0.63] and 0.43 [0.33-0.56]). MSM were associated with increased odds of recombinants in 2010-2015 (1.43 [1.35-1.51]). Subgroup analyses supported our main findings. Discussion: As PWID, CSW, and MSM are associated with HIV-1 recombinants, increased preventative measures and HIV-1 molecular surveillance are crucial within these key populations. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO [CRD42017067164].S

Global and regional epidemiology of HIV-1 recombinants in 1990-2015: a systematic review and global survey

Background Global HIV-1 genetic diversity and evolution form a major challenge to treatment and prevention efforts. An increasing number of distinct HIV-1 recombinants have been identified worldwide, but their contribution to the global epidemic is unknown. We aimed to estimate the global and regional distribution of HIV-1 recombinant forms during 1990–2015. Methods We assembled a global HIV-1 molecular epidemiology database through a systematic literature review and a global survey. We searched the PubMed, Embase (Ovid), CINAHL (Ebscohost), and Global Health (Ovid) databases for HIV-1 subtyping studies published from Jan 1, 1990, to Dec 31, 2015. Unpublished original HIV-1 subtyping data were collected through a survey among experts in the field who were members of the WHO–UNAIDS Network for HIV Isolation and Characterisation. We included prevalence studies with HIV-1 subtyping data collected during 1990–2015. Countries were grouped into 14 regions and analyses were done for four time periods (1990–99, 2000–04, 2005–09, and 2010–15). The distribution of circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) and unique recombinant forms (URFs) in individual countries was weighted according to the UNAIDS estimates of the number of people living with HIV in each country to generate regional and global estimates of numbers and proportions of HIV-1 recombinants in each time period. The systematic review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017067164. Findings Our global data collection yielded an HIV-1 molecular epidemiology database of 383 519 samples from 116 countries in 1990–2015. We found that the proportion of recombinants increased over time, both globally and in most regions, reaching 22·8% (7 978 517 of 34 921 639) of global HIV-1 infections in 2010–15. Both the proportion and the number of distinct CRFs detected increased over time to 16·7% and 57 CRFs in 2010–15. The global and regional distribution of HIV-1 recombinants was diverse and evolved over time, and we found large regional variation in the numbers (0–44 CRFs), types (58 distinct CRFs), and proportions (0–80·5%) of HIV-1 recombinants. Globally, CRF02_AG was the most prevalent recombinant, accounting for 33·9% (2 701 364 of 7 978 517) of all recombinant infections in 2010–15. URFs accounted for 26·7% (2 131 450 of 7 978 517), CRF01_AE for 23·0% (1 838 433), and other CRFs for 16·4% (1 307 270) of all recombinant infections in 2010–15. Although other CRFs accounted for small proportions of infections globally (<1% each), they were prominent in regional epidemics, including in east and southeast Asia, west and central Africa, Middle East and north Africa, and eastern Europe and central Asia. In addition, in 2010–15, central Africa (21·3% [243 041 of 1 143 531]), west Africa (15·5% [838 476 of 5 419 010]), east Africa (12·6% [591 140 of 4 704 986]), and Latin America (9·6% [153 069 of 1 586 605]) had high proportions of URFs. Interpretation HIV-1 recombinants are increasingly prominent in global and regional HIV epidemics, which has important implications for the development of an HIV vaccine and the design of diagnostic, resistance, and viral load assays. Continued and improved surveillance of the global molecular epidemiology of HIV is crucial