The signed loop approach to the Ising model: foundations and critical point

The signed loop method is a beautiful way to rigorously study the two-dimensional Ising model with no external field. In this paper, we explore the foundations of the method, including details that have so far been neglected or overlooked in the literature. We demonstrate how the method can be applied to the Ising model on the square lattice to derive explicit formal expressions for the free energy density and two-point functions in terms of sums over loops, valid all the way up to the self-dual point. As a corollary, it follows that the self-dual point is critical both for the behaviour of the free energy density, and for the decay of the two-point functions.Comment: 38 pages, 7 figures, with an improved Introduction. The final publication is available at link.springer.co

Antiretroviral drug class and anaemia risk in the current treatment era among people living with HIV in the USA: a clinical cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Anaemia is common among people living with HIV (PLWH) and has been associated with certain, often older, antiretroviral medications. Information on current antiretroviral therapy (ART) and anaemia is limited. The objective was to compare the associations between anaemia incidence or haemoglobin change with core ART classes in the current ART era. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: USA-based prospective clinical cohort of PLWH aged 18 and above receiving care at eight sites between January 2010 and March 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 16 505 PLWH were included in this study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Anaemia risk and haemoglobin change were estimated among PLWH for person-time on a protease inhibitor (PI) or an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based regimen, relative to a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based reference. We also examined PLWH on regimens containing multiple core classes. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to measure the associations between time-updated ART classes and incident anaemia or severe anaemia. Linear mixed effects models were used to examine the relationships between ART classes and haemoglobin change. RESULTS: During a median of 4.9 years of follow-up, 1040 developed anaemia and 488 developed severe anaemia. Compared with NNRTI use, INSTI-based regimens were associated with an increased risk of anaemia (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.26, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.58) and severe anaemia (aHR 1.51, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.11) and a decrease in haemoglobin level. Time on multiple core classes was also associated with increased anaemia risk (aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.70), while no associations were found for PI use. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest INSTI use may increase the risk of anaemia. If confirmed, screening for anaemia development in users of INSTIs may be beneficial. Further research into the underlying mechanisms is warranted

Risk factors for atrial fibrillation in a multicenter United States clinical cohort of people with HIV infection

To assess atrial fibrillation risk factors in people with HIV, we identified incident atrial fibrillation in a large clinical cohort of people receiving care. Compared with 970 controls without atrial fibrillation, the 97 with adjudicated incident atrial fibrillation were older, less likely Hispanic, and had more coronary disease, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In multivariable analysis, nonuse of antiretroviral therapy and prescription of antiretroviral regimens with multiple core agents were associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk

Anemia risk factors among people living with HIV across the United States in the current treatment era: A clinical cohort study

Background: Anemia is common among people living with HIV infection (PLWH) and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Information on risk factors for anemia incidence in the current antiretroviral therapy (ART) era is lacking. Methods: Within a prospective clinical cohort of adult PLWH receiving care at eight sites across the United States between 1/2010-3/2018, Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted among a) PLWH free of anemia at baseline and b) PLWH free of severe anemia at baseline to determine associations between time-updated patient characteristics and development of anemia (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL), or severe anemia (hemoglobin < 7.5 g/dL). Linear mixed effects models were used to examine relationships between patient characteristics and hemoglobin levels during follow-up. Hemoglobin levels were ascertained using laboratory data from routine clinical care. Potential risk factors included: age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, hazardous alcohol use, illicit drug use, hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), CD4 cell count, viral load, ART use and time in care at CNICS site. Results: This retrospective cohort study included 15,126 PLWH. During a median follow-up of 6.6 (interquartile range [IQR] 4.3-7.6) years, 1086 participants developed anemia and 465 participants developed severe anemia. Factors that were associated with incident anemia included: older age, female sex, black race, HCV coinfection, lower CD4 cell counts, VL ≥400 copies/ml and lower eGFR. Conclusion: Because anemia is a treatable condition associated with increased morbidity and mortality among PLWH, hemoglobin levels should be monitored routinely, especially among PLWH who have one or more risk factors for anemia

Virologic Failure Among People Living With HIV Initiating Dolutegravir-Based Versus Other Recommended Regimens in Real-World Clinical Care Settings

Background: Guidelines for initial antiretroviral treatment (ART) regimens have evolved, with integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) increasingly prominent. Research on virologic failure (VF) with INSTI therapy is predominantly from clinical trials not care settings, especially for recently approved medications including dolutegravir. We compared outcomes among people living with HIV (PLWH) who initiated recommended regimens in clinical care across the United States. Setting: We examined 2 groups of PLWH at 8 clinics who initiated ART regimens (August 1, 2013-March 31, 2017): those ART treatment-naive at initiation, and those treatment-experienced. Methods: The outcome in this longitudinal cohort study was VF, defined as a viral load of ≥400 copies/mL ≥6 months after ART initiation. We examined the proportion of individuals who remained on, switched, or discontinued the regimen. Associations between regimens and outcomes were examined with adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Among 5177 PLWH, a lower proportion experienced VF on dolutegravir- versus other INSTI- or darunavir-based regimens for previously treatment-naive (7% vs. 12% vs. 28%) and treatment-experienced PLWH (6% vs. 10% vs. 21%). In adjusted analyses, hazard ratios were similar across regimens for the combined outcome of regimen discontinuation or treatment switch. The hazard ratios for VF comparing dolutegravir- to darunavir-based regimens was 0.30 (95% CI: 0.2 to 0.6) among previously treatment-naive PLWH and was 0.60 (95% CI: 0.4 to 0.8) among treatment-experienced PLWH. Conclusions: The proportion of previously treatment-naive PLWH remaining on recommended ART regimens did not differ by regimen. The likelihood of VF was lower with dolutegravir- than darunavir-based regimens for previously treatment-naive and treatment-experienced PLWH

Cumulative Human Immunodeficiency Viremia, Antiretroviral Therapy, and Incident Myocardial Infarction

Background: People living with HIV are at risk of increased myocardial infarction (MI). Cumulative HIV viral load (VL) has been proposed as a better measure of HIV inflammation than other measures of VL, like baseline VL, but its associations with MI are not known. Methods: The multisite Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort includes clinical data and centrally adjudicated MI with distinction between atheroembolic MI (type 1) and MI related to supply-demand mismatch (type 2). We examined CNICS participants who were not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at enrollment. Cumulative VL (copy-days of virus) from 6 months after enrollment was estimated with a time-weighted sum using the trapezoidal rule. We modeled associations of cumulative and baseline VL with MI by type using marginal structural Cox models. We contrasted the 75% percentile of the VL distribution with the 25% percentile. Results: Among 11,324 participants, 218 MIs occurred between 1996 and 2016. Higher cumulative VL was associated with risk of all MI (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.26, 2.36), type 1 MI (HR = 1.23; 95% CI = 0.78, 1.96), and type 2 MI (HR = 2.52; 95% CI = 1.74, 3.66). While off ART, cumulative VL had a stronger association with type 1 MI (HR = 2.13; 95% CI = 1.15, 3.94) than type 2 MI (HR = 1.25; 95% CI = 0.70, 2.25). Baseline VL was associated with all MI (HR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.28, 2.01), type 1 MI (HR = 1.73; 95% CI = 1.26, 2.38), and type 2 MI (HR = 1.51; 95% CI = 1.10, 2.08). Conclusions: Higher cumulative and baseline VL is associated with all MI, with a particularly strong association between cumulative VL and type 2 MI

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the risk for myocardial infarction by type in people with HIV

Objectives:The relationship between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardiovascular disease in people with HIV (PWH) is incompletely understood. We determined whether COPD is associated with risk of myocardial infarction (MI) among PWH, and if this differs for type 1 (T1MI) and type 2 (T2MI).Design:We utilized data from five sites in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort, a multisite observational study.Methods:Our primary outcome was an adjudicated MI, classified as T1MI or T2MI. We defined COPD based on a validated algorithm requiring COPD diagnosis codes and at least 90-day continuous supply of inhalers. We conducted time-to-event analyses to first MI and used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to measure associations between COPD and MI.Results:Among 12 046 PWH, 945 had COPD. Overall, 309 PWH had an MI: 58% had T1MI (N = 178) and 42% T2MI (N = 131). In adjusted models, COPD was associated with a significantly increased risk of all MI [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.68 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.99-3.60)] even after including self-reported smoking [aHR 2.40 (95% CI 1.76-3.26)]. COPD was also associated with significantly increased risk of T1MI and T2MI individually, and with sepsis and non-sepsis causes of T2MI. Associations were generally minimally changed adjusting for substance use.Conclusion:COPD is associated with a substantially increased risk for MI, including both T1MI and T2MI, among PWH. Given the association with both T1MI and T2MI, diverse mechanistic pathways are involved. Future strategies to decrease risk of T1MI and T2MI in PWH who have COPD are needed

HIV viral suppression trends over time among HIV-infected patients receiving care in the United States, 1997 to 2015 a cohort study

Background: Because HIV viral suppression is essential for optimal outcomes and prevention efforts, understanding trends and predictors is imperative to inform public health policy. Objective: To evaluate viral suppression trends in people living with HIV (PLWH), including the relationship of associated factors, such as demographic characteristics and integrase strand transfer inhibitor (ISTI) use. Design: Longitudinal observational cohort study. Setting: 8 HIV clinics across the United States. Participants: PLWH receiving clinical care. Measurements: To understand trends in viral suppression (≤400 copies/mL), annual viral suppression rates from 1997 to 2015 were determined. Analyses were repeated with tests limited to 1 random test per person per year and using inverse probability of censoring weights to address loss to follow-up. Joint longitudinal and survival models and linear mixed models of PLWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) were used to examine associations between viral suppression or continuous viral load (VL) levels and demographic factors, substance use, adherence, and ISTI use. Results: Viral suppression increased from 32% in 1997 to 86% in 2015 on the basis of all tests among 31 930 PLWH. In adjusted analyses, being older (odds ratio [OR], 0.76 per decade [95% CI, 0.74 to 0.78]) and using an ISTI-based regimen (OR, 0.54 [CI, 0.51 to 0.57]) were associated with lower odds of having a detectable VL, and black race was associated with higher odds (OR, 1.68 [CI, 1.57 to 1.80]) (P < 0.001 for each). Similar patterns were seen with continuous VL levels; when analyses were limited to 2010 to 2015; and with adjustment for adherence, substance use, or depression. Limitation: Results are limited to PLWH receiving clinical care. Conclusion: HIV viral suppression rates have improved dramatically across the United States, which is likely partially attributable to improved ART, including ISTI-based regimens. However, disparities among younger and black PLWH merit attention

Drug and alcohol use among people living with HIV in care in the United States by geographic region

Substance use in the U.S. varies by geographic region. Opioid prescribing practices and marijuana, heroin, and methamphetamine availability are evolving differently across regions. We examined self-reported substance use among people living with HIV (PLWH) in care at seven sites from 2017–2019 to understand current regional substance use patterns. We calculated the percentage and standardized percentage of PLWH reporting current drug use and at-risk and binge alcohol use by U.S. Census Bureau geographic region and examined associations in adjusted logistic regression analyses. Among 7,686 PLWH, marijuana use was the most prevalent drug (30%), followed by methamphetamine/crystal (8%), cocaine/crack (7%), and illicit opioids (3%). One-third reported binge alcohol use (32%). Differences in percent of current use by region were seen for marijuana (24–41%) and methamphetamine/crystal (2–15%), with more use in the West and Northeast, and binge alcohol use (26–40%). In adjusted analyses, PLWH in the Midwest were significantly less likely to use methamphetamine/crystal (aOR: 0.13;0.06–0.25) or illicit opioids (aOR:0.16;0.05–0.53), and PLWH in the Northeast were more likely to use cocaine/crack (aOR:1.59;1.16–2.17), compared to PLWH in the West. Understanding differences in substance use patterns in the current era, as policies continue to evolve, will enable more targeted interventions in clinical settings among PLWH

Assessing the associations between known genetic variants and substance use in people with HIV in the United States

Background The prevalence of substance use in people with HIV (PWH) in the United States is higher than in the general population and is an important driver of HIV-related outcomes. We sought to assess if previously identified genetic associations that contribute to substance use are also observed in a population of PWH. Methods We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of alcohol, smoking, and cannabis use phenotypes in a multi-ancestry population of 7,542 PWH from the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS). We conducted multi-ancestry GWAS for individuals of African (n = 3,748), Admixed American (n = 1,334), and European (n = 2,460) ancestry. Phenotype data were self-reported and collected using patient reported outcomes (PROs) and three questions from AUDIT-C, an alcohol screening tool. We analyzed nine phenotypes: 1) frequency of alcohol consumption, 2) typical number of drinks on a day when drinking alcohol, 3) frequency of five or more alcoholic drinks in a 30-day period, 4) smoking initiation, 5) smoking cessation, 6) cigarettes per day, 7) cannabis use initiation, 8) cannabis use cessation, 9) frequency of cannabis use during the previous 30 days. For each phenotype we considered a) variants previously identified as associated with a substance use trait and b) novel associations. Results We observed evidence for effects of previously reported single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to alcohol (rs1229984, p = 0.001), tobacco (rs11783093, p = 2.22E-4), and cannabis use (rs2875907, p = 0.005). We also report two novel loci (19p13.2, p = 1.3E-8; and 20p11.21, p = 2.1E-8) associated with cannabis use cessation. Conclusions Our analyses contribute to understanding the genetic bases of substance use in a population with relatively higher rates of use compared to the general population