Topological structures in the equities market network

We present a new method for articulating scale-dependent topological descriptions of the network structure inherent in many complex systems. The technique is based on "Partition Decoupled Null Models,'' a new class of null models that incorporate the interaction of clustered partitions into a random model and generalize the Gaussian ensemble. As an application we analyze a correlation matrix derived from four years of close prices of equities in the NYSE and NASDAQ. In this example we expose (1) a natural structure composed of two interacting partitions of the market that both agrees with and generalizes standard notions of scale (eg., sector and industry) and (2) structure in the first partition that is a topological manifestation of a well-known pattern of capital flow called "sector rotation.'' Our approach gives rise to a natural form of multiresolution analysis of the underlying time series that naturally decomposes the basic data in terms of the effects of the different scales at which it clusters. The equities market is a prototypical complex system and we expect that our approach will be of use in understanding a broad class of complex systems in which correlation structures are resident.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

A method for predicting full scale buffet response with rigid wind tunnel model fluctuating pressure data. Volume 1: Prediction method development and assessment

The method requires unsteady aerodynamic forces, natural airplane modes, and the measured pressure data as input. A gust response computer program is used to calculate buffet response due to the forcing function posed by the measured pressure data. By calculating both symmetric and antisymmetric solutions, upper and lower bounds on full-scale buffet response are formed. Comparisons of predictions with flight test results are made and the effects of horizontal tail loads and static aeroelasticity are shown. Discussions are also presented on the effects of primary wing torsion modes, chordwise and spanwise phase angles, and altitude

Labour force transitions and changes in quality of life at age 50 to 55 years: evidence from a birth cohort study

In the context of an ageing population and longer working lives, the impact of increasing rates of early exit from the labour force on quality of life is a particularly current concern. However, relatively little is known about the impact on quality of life of later life labour force transitions and various forms of early exit from the labour force, compared to remaining in employment. This paper examines life course labour force trajectories and transitions in relation to change in quality of life prior to the State Pension Age. Life course data on early life circumstances, labour force trajectories and labour force transitions from 3,894 women and 3,528 men in the National Child Development Study (1958 British Birth Cohort) were examined in relation to change in quality of life, measured by a short-form version of CASP, between ages 50 and 55 years. Women and men differed in the types of labour force transition associated with positive change in quality of life, with men more frequent beneficiaries. For both men and women, labour force exit due to being sick or disabled was associated with a negative change in quality of life, whereas joining the labour force was associated with a positive change in quality of life. Moving into retirement was associated with a positive change in men’s quality of life, but not women’s. Moving from full-time to part-time employment was associated with a positive change in women’s quality of life, but not men’s. The findings that stand out for their policy relevance are: the threat to the quality of life of both women and men from early labour force exit due to limiting longstanding illness; and, women are less likely to experience beneficial labour force exit in the later years of their working life, but are more likely to benefit from a reduction in working hours

Neutron star glitches have a substantial minimum size

Glitches are sudden spin-up events that punctuate the steady spin down of pulsars and are thought to be due to the presence of a superfluid component within neutron stars. The precise glitch mechanism and its trigger, however, remain unknown. The size of glitches is a key diagnostic for models of the underlying physics. While the largest glitches have long been taken into account by theoretical models, it has always been assumed that the minimum size lay below the detectability limit of the measurements. In this paper we define general glitch detectability limits and use them on 29 years of daily observations of the Crab pulsar, carried out at Jodrell Bank Observatory. We find that all glitches lie well above the detectability limits and by using an automated method to search for small events we are able to uncover the full glitch size distribution, with no biases. Contrary to the prediction of most models, the distribution presents a rapid decrease of the number of glitches below ~0.05 $\mu$Hz. This substantial minimum size indicates that a glitch must involve the motion of at least several billion superfluid vortices and provides an extra observable which can greatly help the identification of the trigger mechanism. Our study also shows that glitches are clearly separated from all the other rotation irregularities. This supports the idea that the origin of glitches is different to that of timing noise, which comprises the unmodelled random fluctuations in the rotation rates of pulsars.Comment: 8 pages; 4 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Epidemics and percolation in small-world networks

We study some simple models of disease transmission on small-world networks, in which either the probability of infection by a disease or the probability of its transmission is varied, or both. The resulting models display epidemic behavior when the infection or transmission probability rises above the threshold for site or bond percolation on the network, and we give exact solutions for the position of this threshold in a variety of cases. We confirm our analytic results by numerical simulation.Comment: 6 pages, including 3 postscript figure

Clustering in Complex Directed Networks

Many empirical networks display an inherent tendency to cluster, i.e. to form circles of connected nodes. This feature is typically measured by the clustering coefficient (CC). The CC, originally introduced for binary, undirected graphs, has been recently generalized to weighted, undirected networks. Here we extend the CC to the case of (binary and weighted) directed networks and we compute its expected value for random graphs. We distinguish between CCs that count all directed triangles in the graph (independently of the direction of their edges) and CCs that only consider particular types of directed triangles (e.g., cycles). The main concepts are illustrated by employing empirical data on world-trade flows

Deep cyclogenesis by synoptic eddies interacting with a seamount

Strong deep eddies with cyclonic vorticity greater than 0.2 f0 were detected using an array of bottom current and pressure measurements in the Kuroshio Extension System Study (KESS) in 2004–2006. Daily maps showed these deep eddies developed locally. As in the Gulf Stream, meandering of the upper baroclinic jet generates deep cyclones and anticyclones by stretching and squashing the lower water column. However, unlike the Gulf Stream, the smaller vertical stretching and greater water depth in the Kuroshio Extension limits the relative vorticity generated by this vertical coupling process to about 0.1 f0. In the deep Kuroshio Extension the strong cases of vorticity generation and cyclone development are related to stretching driven when water columns are advected off isolated seamounts in the region. The large observed values of relative vorticity are consistent with a straightforward calculation of deep layer potential vorticity conservation.A barotropic model is used to illustrate the topographic generation of cyclones by ambient currents in synoptic eddies. Positive potential vorticity filaments also develop during the cyclogenetic process with width LR = O(20 km), where LR is the topographic Rhines scale, and travel anticyclonically around the seamount. Observational evidence lends support to the existence of submesoscale filaments, insomuch as current meter records near the flanks of seamounts exhibited bursts of eddy kinetic energy when bandpass-filtered between the inertial period and eight days