A model building exercise of mortality risk for Taiwanese women with breast cancer

Abstract Background The accurate estimation of outcome in patients with malignant disease is an essential component of the optimal treatment, decision-making and patient counseling processes. The prognosis and disease outcome of breast cancer patients can differ according to geographic and ethnic factors. To our knowledge, to date these factors have never been validated in a homogenous loco-regional patient population, with the aim of achieving accurate predictions of outcome for individual patients. To clarify this topic, we created a new comprehensive prognostic and predictive model for Taiwanese breast cancer patients based on a range of patient-related and various clinical and pathological-related variables. Methods Demographic, clinical, and pathological data were analyzed from 1 137 patients with breast cancer who underwent surgical intervention. A survival prediction model was used to allow analysis of the optimal combination of variables. Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, as applied to an independent validation data set, was used as the measure of accuracy. Results were compared by comparing the area under the ROC curve. Conclusions our model building exercise of mortality risk was able to predict disease outcome for individual patients with breast cancer. This model could represent a highly accurate prognostic tool for Taiwanese breast cancer patients.</p

Bias in trials comparing paired continuous tests can cause researchers to choose the wrong screening modality

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To compare the diagnostic accuracy of two continuous screening tests, a common approach is to test the difference between the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. After study participants are screened with both screening tests, the disease status is determined as accurately as possible, either by an invasive, sensitive and specific secondary test, or by a less invasive, but less sensitive approach. For most participants, disease status is approximated through the less sensitive approach. The invasive test must be limited to the fraction of the participants whose results on either or both screening tests exceed a threshold of suspicion, or who develop signs and symptoms of the disease after the initial screening tests.</p> <p>The limitations of this study design lead to a bias in the ROC curves we call <it>paired screening trial bias</it>. This bias reflects the synergistic effects of inappropriate reference standard bias, differential verification bias, and partial verification bias. The absence of a gold reference standard leads to inappropriate reference standard bias. When different reference standards are used to ascertain disease status, it creates differential verification bias. When only suspicious screening test scores trigger a sensitive and specific secondary test, the result is a form of partial verification bias.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For paired screening tests with bivariate normally distributed scores, we give formulae and programs to quantify the effect of <it>paired screening trial bias </it>on a paired comparison of area under the curves. We fix the prevalence of disease, and the chance a diseased subject manifests signs and symptoms. We derive the formulas for true sensitivity and specificity, and those for the sensitivity and specificity observed by the study investigator.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The observed area under the ROC curves is quite different from the true area under the ROC curves. The typical direction of the bias is a strong inflation in sensitivity, paired with a concomitant slight deflation of specificity.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In paired trials of screening tests, when area under the ROC curve is used as the metric, bias may lead researchers to make the wrong decision as to which screening test is better.</p

Noise correlation in PET, CT, SPECT and PET/CT data evaluated using autocorrelation function: a phantom study on data, reconstructed using FBP and OSEM

BACKGROUND: Positron Emission Tomography (PET), Computed Tomography (CT), PET/CT and Single Photon Emission Tomography (SPECT) are non-invasive imaging tools used for creating two dimensional (2D) cross section images of three dimensional (3D) objects. PET and SPECT have the potential of providing functional or biochemical information by measuring distribution and kinetics of radiolabelled molecules, whereas CT visualizes X-ray density in tissues in the body. PET/CT provides fused images representing both functional and anatomical information with better precision in localization than PET alone. Images generated by these types of techniques are generally noisy, thereby impairing the imaging potential and affecting the precision in quantitative values derived from the images. It is crucial to explore and understand the properties of noise in these imaging techniques. Here we used autocorrelation function (ACF) specifically to describe noise correlation and its non-isotropic behaviour in experimentally generated images of PET, CT, PET/CT and SPECT. METHODS: Experiments were performed using phantoms with different shapes. In PET and PET/CT studies, data were acquired in 2D acquisition mode and reconstructed by both analytical filter back projection (FBP) and iterative, ordered subsets expectation maximisation (OSEM) methods. In the PET/CT studies, different magnitudes of X-ray dose in the transmission were employed by using different mA settings for the X-ray tube. In the CT studies, data were acquired using different slice thickness with and without applied dose reduction function and the images were reconstructed by FBP. SPECT studies were performed in 2D, reconstructed using FBP and OSEM, using post 3D filtering. ACF images were generated from the primary images, and profiles across the ACF images were used to describe the noise correlation in different directions. The variance of noise across the images was visualised as images and with profiles across these images. RESULTS: The most important finding was that the pattern of noise correlation is rotation symmetric or isotropic, independent of object shape in PET and PET/CT images reconstructed using the iterative method. This is, however, not the case in FBP images when the shape of phantom is not circular. Also CT images reconstructed using FBP show the same non-isotropic pattern independent of slice thickness and utilization of care dose function. SPECT images show an isotropic correlation of the noise independent of object shape or applied reconstruction algorithm. Noise in PET/CT images was identical independent of the applied X-ray dose in the transmission part (CT), indicating that the noise from transmission with the applied doses does not propagate into the PET images showing that the noise from the emission part is dominant. The results indicate that in human studies it is possible to utilize a low dose in transmission part while maintaining the noise behaviour and the quality of the images. CONCLUSION: The combined effect of noise correlation for asymmetric objects and a varying noise variance across the image field significantly complicates the interpretation of the images when statistical methods are used, such as with statistical estimates of precision in average values, use of statistical parametric mapping methods and principal component analysis. Hence it is recommended that iterative reconstruction methods are used for such applications. However, it is possible to calculate the noise analytically in images reconstructed by FBP, while it is not possible to do the same calculation in images reconstructed by iterative methods. Therefore for performing statistical methods of analysis which depend on knowing the noise, FBP would be preferred

The effect of tightly-bound water molecules on scaffold diversity in computer-aided de novo ligand design of CDK2 inhibitors

We have determined the effects that tightly bound water molecules have on the de novo design of cyclin-dependent kinase-2 (CDK2) ligands. In particular, we have analyzed the impact of a specific structural water molecule on the chemical diversity and binding mode of ligands generated through a de novo structure-based ligand generation method in the binding site of CDK2. The tightly bound water molecule modifies the size and shape of the binding site and we have found that it also imposed constraints on the observed binding modes of the generated ligands. This in turn had the indirect effect of reducing the chemical diversity of the underlying molecular scaffolds that were able to bind to the enzyme satisfactorily

Unilateral congenital elongation of the cervical part of the internal carotid artery with kinking and looping: two case reports and review of the literature

Unilateral and bilateral variation in the course and elongation of the cervical (extracranial) part of the internal carotid artery (ICA) leading to its tortuosity, kinking and coiling or looping is not a rare condition, which could be caused by both embryological and acquired factors. Patients with such variations may be asymptomatic in some cases; in others, they can develop cerebrovascular symptoms due to carotid stenosis affecting cerebral circulation. The risk of transient ischemic attacks in patients with carotid stenosis is high and its surgical correction is indicated for the prevention of ischemic stroke. Detection of developmental variations of the ICA and evaluation of its stenotic areas is very important for surgical interventions and involves specific diagnostic imaging techniques for vascular lesions including contrast arteriography, duplex ultrasonography and magnetic resonance angiography. Examination of obtained images in cases of unusual and complicated variations of vascular pattern of the ICA may lead to confusion in interpretation of data. Awareness about details and topographic anatomy of variations of the ICA may serve as a useful guide for both radiologists and vascular surgeons. It may help to prevent diagnostic errors, influence surgical tactics and interventional procedures and avoid complications during the head and neck surgery. Our present study was conducted with a purpose of updating data about developmental variations of the ICA. Dissections of the main neurovascular bundle of the head and neck were performed on a total 14 human adult cadavers (10 – Africans: 7 males & 3 females and 4 – East Indians: all males). Two cases of unilateral congenital elongation of the cervical part of the ICA with kinking and looping and carotid stenoses were found only in African males. Here we present their detailed case reports with review of the literature

A framework for teaching epistemic insight in schools

This paper gives the rationale and a draft outline for a framework for education to teach epistemic insight into schools in England. The motivation to research and propose a strategy to teach and assess epistemic insight followed research that investigated how students and teachers in primary and secondary schools respond to big questions about the nature of reality and human personhood. The research revealed that there are pressures in schools that dampen students’ expressed curiosity in these types of questions and limit their developing epistemic insight into how science, religion and the wider humanities relate. These findings prompted the construction of a framework for education for students aged 5–16 designed to encourage students’ expressed interest in big questions and develop their understanding of the ways that science interacts with other ways of knowing. The centrepiece of the framework is a sequence of learning objectives for epistemic insight, organised into three categories. The categories are, firstly, the nature of science in real world contexts and multidisciplinary arenas; secondly, ways of knowing and how they interact; and thirdly, the relationships between science and religion. Our current version of the Framework is constructed to respond to the way that teaching is organised in England. The key principles and many of the activities could be adopted and tailored to work in many other countries

Ulnar-sided wrist pain. Part I: anatomy and physical examination

Ulnar-sided wrist pain is a common complaint, and it presents a diagnostic challenge for hand surgeons and radiologists. The complex anatomy of this region, combined with the small size of structures and subtle imaging findings, compound this problem. A thorough understanding of ulnar-sided wrist anatomy and a systematic clinical examination of this region are essential in arriving at an accurate diagnosis. In part I of this review, ulnar-sided wrist anatomy and clinical examination are discussed for a more comprehensive understanding of ulnar-sided wrist pain