The Cyclic Behavior of the U.S. Lodging Industry

A recently constructed data series suggests that the hotel industry has experienced two rather large building booms from 1969 to 1994. By contrast, hotel demand seems to move closely with the United States economy, at a much higher cyclic frequency. Occupancy and room rental rates follow the slower movements in supply. A structural model is estimated over this series which displays long lags between occupancy and room rental rate changes, as well as between room rental rates and new supply. These lags create a system of difference equations that is close to being dynamically unstable. Forecasting forward with smooth economic growth, yields a new and even larger future building boom. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Determinants of Cross-Sectional Variation in Discount Rates, Growth Rates and Exit Cap Rates

This study investigates the determinants of key input variables in valuers' discounted cash flow models used for estimating market values for offices. Data from 599 valuations in 2000 from Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö are used to explain variation in discount rates, expected growth rates in net operating income and exit cap rates. Our ability to explain the relatively wide variation in appraisal assumptions with plausible covariates generates confidence in the appraisal process. This has important implications because most value and returns indices of commercial real estate worldwide are appraisal based. Copyright 2004 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Urban Land Development and its Prices: The Effects of Conversion Costs with Redevelopment

This paper analyzes urban land development when landowners anticipate a future large-scale redevelopment by a third party developer. Landowners' initial development activities can deter such redevelopment because they impose two conversion costs on the redeveloper: demolition costs and landowners' reservation prices. These costs are eventually borne by the landowners when the developers' market is competitive. For the landowners' initial development activities, we analyze both the efficient solution and the noncooperative solution under the Nash equilibrium. In both cases, the possibility of redevelopment results in a lower level of initial development due to the conversion costs, but increases land prices. However, the magnitude of their effects is smaller in the Nash solution due to an externality. The presence of such an externality provides a rationale for zoning and urban planning. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

A Retrospective Analysis and Comparative Study of Stony Coral Assemblages in Biscayne National Park, FL (1977-2000)

The hardbottom, patch, and bank reefs of Biscayne National Park (BNP) are among the most northern reef communities in the Florida Keys reef tract. The close proximity of BNP reefs to highly developed areas (i.e., the greater Miami metropolitan area) make them both heavily used and susceptible to a multitude of anthropogenic stresses. This study analyzes a unique 1977-1981 data set on stony-coral abundances and percent cover, collected from eight reefs in BNP, and compares this more than 25-year old data set with published data from surveys conducted from 1994-1996 and 1998-2000. In 1977-81, stony-coral cover on the eight reefs ranged between 8% and 28%, whereas coral cover reported from surveys in 1998-2000 ranged between 0.4% and 10%. Significant declines in cover of all coral species were seen at BNP reefs in the -20 years between data sets, although few changes were observed in species richness and taxonomic distinctness values. Spatial differences were observed between lagoonal patch reefs and outer bank reefs, consistent with previous reports of greater loss of coral cover on offshore reefs. Previous reports have suggested that high juvenile coral mortality due to fish predation, physical stresses, and thermal stresses have contributed to reduced cover at offshore BNP reefs