Economic Significance of Specific Export Promotion on Poverty Reduction and Inter- Industry Growth of Ethiopia

Micro simulated general equilibrium approach was used to analyze the economic significance of the current export promotion policy of Ethiopia. Simulation results, in general, indicated little achievements of economic growth and poverty reduction under selective export promotion. In this policy approach, only rural households were able to acquire higher income and lower poverty incidence. These achievements however were transmitted to small and big urban households when export promotion was assumed to be implemented across the board of all agricultural activities. Significant economic and inter-industrial growths were attained when the coffee industry was given equal policy treatments like other export agricultureSelective export promotion policy, computable general equilibrium, poverty reduction, foreign direct investment, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Quadrature Rules on Triangles and Tetrahedra for Multidimensional Summation-By-Parts Operators

Multidimensional diagonal-norm summation-by-parts (SBP) operators with collocated volume and facet nodes, known as diagonal-$\mathsf{E}$ operators, are attractive for entropy-stable discretizations from an efficiency standpoint. However, there is a limited number of such operators, and those currently in existence often have a relatively high node count for a given polynomial order due to a scarcity of suitable quadrature rules. We present several new symmetric positive-weight quadrature rules on triangles and tetrahedra that are suitable for construction of diagonal-$\mathsf{E}$ SBP operators. For triangles, quadrature rules of degree one through twenty with facet nodes that correspond to the Legendre-Gauss-Lobatto (LGL) and Legendre-Gauss (LG) quadrature rules are derived. For tetrahedra, quadrature rules of degree one through ten are presented along with the corresponding facet quadrature rules. All of the quadrature rules are provided in a supplementary data repository. The quadrature rules are used to construct novel SBP diagonal-$\mathsf{E}$ operators, whose accuracy and maximum timestep restrictions are studied numerically.Comment: 11 pages, 1 figur

Final Report developed under Contract #3000704047 for Natural Resources Canada

Natural Resources CanadaNon-Peer ReviewedIn the recent decades, precipitation patterns and corresponding streamflow responses in many cold regions catchments have changed considerably due to warming. Understanding historical changes and predicting future responses are of great importance for planning and management of water resources systems. Regional climate simulations using convention- permitting models are helpful in representing the fine-scale cloud and mesoscale processes, which are critical for understanding the physical mechanisms that cause in convective precipitation. From a hydrological perspective, these fine resolution simulations are helpful in understanding the runoff generation mechanisms, particularly for mountainous watersheds, which have high spatial variation in precipitation due to large differences in elevation over small distances. The sister-study of this report, the Bow River Basin Study (BRBS), used a physically based hydrological land surface scheme along with a water management model, coupled with a high resolution convention- permitting atmospheric regional model (Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF) to understand the streamflow generating mechanisms and identify the changes in streamflow responses of the Bow and Elbow River Basins. The coupled model appears to provide a large improvement in predictability, with minimal calibration of parameters and without bias correction of forcing from the atmospheric model. The model4 was able to provide reliable estimates of streamflows, despite the complex topography in the catchment. Using the WRF Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) scenario, estimated future streamflows simulated were then used to develop projected flow exceedance curves. The uncertainty in the simulations is extremely helpful in the risk assessment for downstream flood inundations. However, the uncertainty in streamflows cannot be assessed as the WRF- PGW dataset was only available for a single realization, because of the high computational cost. The research presented in this report focusses instead on using the highly efficient hydrological model developed and verified in BRBS whilst assessing uncertainty using another regional climate model, the CanRCM4, where many realizations are available for different boundary conditions. Since the CanRCM4 simulations have a relatively low resolution, a novel methodology was developed to adjust regional climate model outputs using the WRF-PGW data. An ensemble of 15 CanRCM4 simulations was used to force the Bow River basin model to determine a measure of the uncertainty in the simulated streamflows, and the projected streamflow exceedance probability curves. These curves are extremely useful for risk assessment for downstream flood inundations. Given the importance of understanding how much extreme precipitation will change in urban areas of the basin, where short duration high intensity events cause flash flooding, frequency analysis of these events was carried out for Calgary and Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves were developed. A ready-to-use empirical form of IDF curve has been proposed from this analysis for the City of Calgary. The results from the WRF-PGW modelling indicated that future high flow, low frequency (exceedances less than 10%) streamflow events will decrease compared to those under the current climate condition by 4, 9 and 1.6 m3/s for the Bow River at Banff and Calgary and Elbow River at Sarcee Bridge respectively. The average of the 15 new CanRCM4-WRF-PGW results supports the above result with some greater decreases in streamflow of 9, 16 and 4 m3/s for Bow River at Banff and Calgary and Elbow River at Sarcee Bridge respectively. However, there were some CanRCM4-WRF-PGW realisations that suggested substantial increases in future low frequency streamflow from those indicated by the average CanRCM4- WRF-PGW-drive MESH model. The below average, high frequency (exceedances greater than 30%) future streamflows will increase modestly in all gauging locations by from 1 to 12.5 m3/s. The results of the extreme precipitation analysis at Calgary indicated an increase in future extreme precipitation events of all duration and return periods. On an average an increase of 1.5 times is noted for short return periods (=2, 5), and an increase of 4 times for long return periods (=500, 1000)

Yukon River Basin Streamflow Forecasting System

Prepared for Government of Yukon, Yukon Environment, Water Resources Branch, Whitehorse, YukonGovernment of Yukon Water Resources BranchNon-Peer ReviewedThe Yukon River Basin is one of the main rivers in the Arctic region of North America and is shared between Canada and the US. The Canadian part covers almost half of the Yukon Territory in addition to a small portion of the province of British Columbia, while the US part falls totally within the state of Alaska. This study is concerned with Canadian part of the Yukon River with its outlet at Eagle, just across the border in Alaska. Small parts of this catchment are in Alaska. This basin has an area of 288,000 km2, from 58.8 – 65.6°N and 129.2 – 134.1°W. The southern part of the basin is characterized by large glaciers at high elevations (up to 4700 m above sea level) with steep slopes, and thus generates considerable runoff. There are also mountain ranges on the eastern and northern boundaries of the basin, while the western areas are milder in slope and partially forested. Snow redistribution, snowmelt, glacier melt and frozen soil processes in winter and spring along with summertime rainfall-runoff and evapotranspiration processes are thus key to the simulation of streamflow in the basin. This project developed, set up, calibrated, validated, and operationalized a streamflow discharge forecasting system for the Yukon River and several of its tributary rivers within the Yukon Territory. The Yukon River Basin streamflow forecasting system is based around the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) hydrological land surface model. MESH is a state-of-the-art semi-distributed cold regions hydrological land surface model that models both the vertical exchanges of heat and moisture between the land surface and the atmosphere as well has the horizontal transfer of water to streams that is routed hydrologically to the outlet of the basin. It includes snow, frozen soil and glacier processes as well as the full suite of warm season hydrology. MESH is driven by the Environment and Climate Change Canada GEM weather model and hindcasts are driven by GEM-CaPA which is a data assimilation product that uses local precipitation observations where they exist. The rivers forecasted includes the Yukon River Basin upstream of Eagle, AK and the Porcupine River Basin near the international boundary. MESH provides supplemental high resolution simulations and forecasts for the Klondike, Stewart, Pelly and White Rivers at their mouths. Daily river discharge and water balance forecasts are produced by the system for each river basin. Having MESH run at both 10 km and 5 km resolution provides an assessment of model resolution needed for forecasting and also of model uncertainty in the forecasts. The MESH model was driven by GEM-CaPA for hindcasts and with the GEM ECCC Regional and Global Deterministic Prediction Systems - RDPS and GDPS forecasts for forecasts of 2 and 9 days. The GEM-MESH model showed good to very good predictions in most river basins after calibration and parameter selection, with challenges for the Porcupine and White rivers due to permafrost and wetlands (Porcupine) and to extensive icefields (White) and overall to sparse to non-existent observed precipitation data to assimilate into the CaPA system. The forecast system is capable of providing reliable streamflow predictions and is run with automated scripts on Amazon Web Services. Future development of the forecasting system should focus on the very challenging permafrost hydrology of the Porcupine River Basin, and the glacier hydrology of the White River which drains the largest icefields in North America. The model does not include a river ice component, but one could be added in the future

Diagnosis of Historical and Future Flow Regimes of the Bow River at Calgary Using a Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model and a Physically Based Land Surface Hydrological Model : Final Report

Final Report developed under Agreement #AP744 for the Natural Resources Canada Climate Change Adaptation Program.Developed under Agreement #AP744 for the Natural Resources Canada Climate Change Adaptation Program, with financial and in-kind assistance from Natural Resources Canada, Alberta Environment and Parks, the City of Calgary, Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Global Water Futures program.Non-Peer ReviewedThis report assesses the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology, including the flood frequencies, of the Bow and Elbow Rivers above Calgary, Alberta. It reports on investigations of the effects of projected climate change on the runoff mechanisms for the Bow and Elbow River basins, which are important mountain headwaters in Alberta, Canada. The study developed a methodology and applied a case study for incorporating climate change into flood frequency estimates that can be applied to a variety of river basins across Canada

Epidemiology of trachoma and its implications for implementing the "SAFE" strategy in Somali Region, Ethiopia: results of 14 population-based prevalence surveys.

PURPOSE: Ethiopia is highly trachoma endemic. Baseline mapping was needed in Ethiopia's Somali Region to guide elimination efforts. METHODS: Cross-sectional community-based surveys were conducted in 34 suspected trachoma-endemic woredas, grouped as 14 evaluation units (EUs), using a standardised mapping methodology developed for the Global Trachoma Mapping Project. RESULTS: In total, 53,467 individuals were enumerated. A total of 48,058 (89.9%) were present at the time of survey teams' visits and consented to examination. The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) among children aged 1-9 years ranged from 4.1% in the EU covering Danot, Boh, and Geladin woredas in Doolo Subzone to 38.1% in the EU covering Kebribeyah and Hareshen woredas in Fafan Subzone (East). The trichiasis prevalence among adults aged over 15 years varied from 0.1% in the EU covering Afder, Bare, and Dolobay woredas in Afder Subzone (West) to 1.2% in the EU covering Awbere in Fafan Subzone (West). CONCLUSION: Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin is needed in 13 EUs (population 2,845,818). Two EUs (population 667,599) had TF prevalences in 1-9-year-olds of ≥30% and will require at least 5 years of MDA; 5 EUs (population 1,1193,032) had TF prevalences of 10-29.9% and need at least three years of MDA; 6 EUs (population 985,187) had TF prevalences of 5-9.9% and need at least one round of azithromycin distribution before re-survey. In all 13 of these EUs, implementation of facial cleanliness and environmental improvement measures is also needed. Surveys are still needed in the remaining 34 unmapped woredas of Somali Region

The Global Trachoma Mapping Project: Methodology of a 34-Country Population-Based Study.

PURPOSE: To complete the baseline trachoma map worldwide by conducting population-based surveys in an estimated 1238 suspected endemic districts of 34 countries. METHODS: A series of national and sub-national projects owned, managed and staffed by ministries of health, conduct house-to-house cluster random sample surveys in evaluation units, which generally correspond to "health district" size: populations of 100,000-250,000 people. In each evaluation unit, we invite all residents aged 1 year and older from h households in each of c clusters to be examined for clinical signs of trachoma, where h is the number of households that can be seen by 1 team in 1 day, and the product h × c is calculated to facilitate recruitment of 1019 children aged 1-9 years. In addition to individual-level demographic and clinical data, household-level water, sanitation and hygiene data are entered into the purpose-built LINKS application on Android smartphones, transmitted to the Cloud, and cleaned, analyzed and ministry-of-health-approved via a secure web-based portal. The main outcome measures are the evaluation unit-level prevalence of follicular trachoma in children aged 1-9 years, prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis in adults aged 15 + years, percentage of households using safe methods for disposal of human feces, and percentage of households with proximate access to water for personal hygiene purposes. RESULTS: In the first year of fieldwork, 347 field teams commenced work in 21 projects in 7 countries. CONCLUSION: With an approach that is innovative in design and scale, we aim to complete baseline mapping of trachoma throughout the world in 2015

Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Trachoma in Oromia Regional State of Ethiopia: Results of 79 Population-Based Prevalence Surveys Conducted with the Global Trachoma Mapping Project.

PURPOSE: To complete the baseline trachoma map in Oromia, Ethiopia, by determining prevalences of trichiasis and trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) at evaluation unit (EU) level, covering all districts (woredas) without current prevalence data or active control programs, and to identify factors associated with disease. METHODS: Using standardized methodologies and training developed for the Global Trachoma Mapping Project, we conducted cross-sectional community-based surveys from December 2012 to July 2014. RESULTS: Teams visited 46,244 households in 2037 clusters from 252 woredas (79 EUs). A total of 127,357 individuals were examined. The overall age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of trichiasis in adults was 0.82% (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.70-0.94%), with 72 EUs covering 240 woredas having trichiasis prevalences above the elimination threshold of 0.2% in those aged ≥15 years. The overall age-adjusted TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds was 23.4%, with 56 EUs covering 218 woredas shown to need implementation of the A, F and E components of the SAFE strategy (surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness and environmental improvement) for 3 years before impact surveys. Younger age, female sex, increased time to the main source of water for face-washing, household use of open defecation, low mean precipitation, low mean annual temperature, and lower altitude, were independently associated with TF in children. The 232 woredas in 64 EUs in which TF prevalence was ≥5% require implementation of the F and E components of the SAFE strategy. CONCLUSION: Both active trachoma and trichiasis are highly prevalent in much of Oromia, constituting a significant public health problem for the region

Prevalence of Trachoma in Pre-validation Surveillance Surveys in 11 Evaluation Units (Covering 12 Districts) in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia: Results from 2018−2020

PURPOSE: Interventions to reduce the prevalence of trachoma and transmission of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis have been implemented in Oromia Region, Ethiopia. Following an impact survey in which the trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) prevalence in 1–9-year-olds is <5%, a surveillance survey is recommended 2 years later, without additional antibiotic treatment. We report results of surveillance surveys in 11 evaluation units (EUs) covering 12 districts in Oromia Region, to plan whether future interventions are needed. METHOD: We use a two-stage cluster-sampling cross-sectional survey design. In each EU, 26 clusters (villages) were systematically selected with probability proportional to size; from each cluster, 30 households were selected using compact segment sampling. Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) access was assessed in all selected households. All residents of selected households aged ≥1 year were examined for TF and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) by certified graders. RESULT: Of 31,991 individuals enumerated, 29,230 (91% of) individuals were examined. Eight EUs had an age-adjusted TF prevalence in 1−9-year-olds of ≥5% and seven had a TT prevalence unknown to the health system among adults aged ≥15 years of ≥0.2%. About one-third of visited households had access to an improved water source for drinking, and 5% had access to an improved latrine. CONCLUSION: Despite TF reductions to <5% at impact survey, prevalence recrudesced to ≥5% in all but three of the 11 EUs. Operational research is needed to understand transmission dynamics and epidemiology, in order to optimise elimination strategies in high-transmission settings like these