Money in monetary policy design: monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model

In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank’s preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions. Keywords: Monetary Policy, New-Keynesian Model, Money, Quantity Theory, European Central Bank, Policy Under Uncertaint

From Isotopes to TK Interviews: Towards Interdisciplinary Research in Fort Resolution and the Slave River Delta, Northwest Territories

Evolving research in Fort Resolution and the Slave River Delta, Northwest Territories, aims to improve understanding of how the natural ecosystem functions and responds to various environmental stressors, as well as to enhance the stewardship of natural resources and the capacity of local residents to respond to change. We seek to integrate approaches that span the natural and social sciences and traditional knowledge understandings of change, employing a research design developed in response to the concerns of a northern community. In doing so, we have strived for a research process that is collaborative, interdisciplinary, policy-oriented, and reflective of northern priorities. These elements characterize the new northern research paradigm increasingly promoted by various federal funding agencies, northern partners, and communities. They represent a holistic perspective in the pursuit of solutions to address complex environmental and socioeconomic concerns about impacts of climate change and resource development on northern societies. However, efforts to fulfill the objectives of this research paradigm are associated with a host of on-the-ground challenges. These challenges include (but are not restricted to) developing effective community partnerships and collaboration and documenting change through interdisciplinary approaches. Here we provide an overview of the components that comprise our interdisciplinary research program and offer an accounting of our formative experiences in confronting these challenges

Optimisation of ITER Nb3Sn CICCs for coupling loss, transverse electromagnetic load and axial thermal contraction

The ITER cable-in-conduit conductors (CICCs) are built up from sub-cable bundles, wound in different stages, which are twisted to counter coupling loss caused by time-changing external magnet fields. The selection of the twist pitch lengths has major implications for the performance of the cable in the case of strain sensitive superconductors, i.e. Nb3Sn, as the electromagnetic and thermal contraction loads are large but also for the heat load from the AC coupling loss. Reduction of the transverse load and warm-up cool-down degradation can be reached by applying longer twist pitches in a particular sequence for the sub-stages, offering a large cable transverse stiffness, adequate axial flexibility and maximum allowed lateral strand support. Analysis of short sample (TF conductor) data reveals that increasing the twist pitch can lead to a gain of the effective axial compressive strain of more than 0.3 % with practically no degradation from bending. For reduction of the coupling loss, specific choices of the cabling twist sequence are needed with the aim to minimize the area of linked strands and bundles that are coupled and form loops with the applied changing magnetic field, instead of simply avoiding longer pitches. In addition we recommend increasing the wrap coverage of the CS conductor from 50 % to at least 70 %. The models predict significant improvement against strain sensitivity and substantial decrease of the AC coupling loss in Nb3Sn CICCs, but also for NbTi CICCs minimization of the coupling loss can be achieved. Although the success of long pitches to transverse load degradation was already demonstrated, the prediction of the combination with low coupling loss needs to be validated by a short sample test.Comment: to be published in Supercond Sci Techno

Population pharmacokinetics of artesunate and dihydroartemisinin in pregnant and non-pregnant women with malaria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The World Health Organization endorses the use of artemisinin-based combination therapy for treatment of acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. However, the effects of pregnancy on the pharmacokinetics of artemisinin derivatives, such as artesunate (AS), are poorly understood. In this analysis, the population pharmacokinetics of oral AS, and its active metabolite dihydroartemisinin (DHA), were studied in pregnant and non-pregnant women at the Kingasani Maternity Clinic in the DRC.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were obtained from 26 pregnant women in the second (22 - 26 weeks) or the third (32 - 36 weeks) trimester of pregnancy and from 25 non-pregnant female controls. All subjects received 200 mg AS. Plasma AS and DHA were measured using a validated LC-MS method. Estimates for pharmacokinetic and variability parameters were obtained through nonlinear mixed effects modelling.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A simultaneous parent-metabolite model was developed consisting of mixed zero-order, lagged first-order absorption of AS, a one-compartment model for AS, and a one-compartment model for DHA. Complete conversion of AS to DHA was assumed. The model displayed satisfactory goodness-of-fit, stability, and predictive ability. Apparent clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution (V/F) estimates, with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals, were as follows: 195 L (139-285 L) for AS V/F, 895 L/h (788-1045 L/h) for AS CL/F, 91.4 L (78.5-109 L) for DHA V/F, and 64.0 L/h (55.1-75.2 L/h) for DHA CL/F. The effect of pregnancy on DHA CL/F was determined to be significant, with a pregnancy-associated increase in DHA CL/F of 42.3% (19.7 - 72.3%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this analysis, pharmacokinetic modelling suggests that pregnant women have accelerated DHA clearance compared to non-pregnant women receiving orally administered AS. These findings, in conjunction with a previous non-compartmental analysis of the modelled data, provide further evidence that higher AS doses would be required to maintain similar DHA levels in pregnant women as achieved in non-pregnant controls.</p

Shelf ice-associated cryo-benthos and environmental features

Incidences of cryo-benthic communities beneath ice shelves are rare and recent discoveries. Combined seal- and ROV-borne imagery and novel sampling technologies allowed for a re-assessment and augmentation of earlier findings on a cryo-benthic isopod community (Antarcturus cf. spinacoronatus), being attached head-down to the underside of floating shelf ice at depths of around 80-150m. The shelf ice-associated cryo-benthos was discovered at Drescher Inlet (-72.83667 -19.15300), Riiser-Larsen Ice Shelf (eastern Weddell Sea). The inlet constitutes a 25km long and between 2 and 4km wide crack in the surrounding shelf ice, which is associated with certain environmental features. Here we compile all available local physical, biological, and biogeochemical data and discuss their relevance in the wider regional context for this faunal hotspot. These include data on shelf, sea and platelet ice, seafloor topography, hydrography and water chemistry, as well as associated pelagic and benthic marine life, in particular affinities of the cryo-benthic isopod community to related fauna occurring in nearby seabed communities using molecular barcoding

Disease prevention strategies for QX disease (Marteilia sydneyi) of Sydney rock oysters (Saccostrea glomerata)

The Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata) forms the basis of an important aquaculture industry on the east coast of Australia. During the 1970s, production of S. glomerata began to decline, in part as a result of mortalities arising from Queensland unknown (QX) disease. Histological studies implicated the paramyxean parasite Marteilia sydneyi in the disease outbreaks. Disease zoning was implemented to prevent the spread of M. sydneyi-infected oysters. This control measure hindered rock oyster farming, which historically has relied on transferring wild-caught spat between estuaries for on-growing to market size and has not prevented the subsequent occurrence of QX disease in the Georges and Hawkesbury rivers in central New South Wales. Management of QX disease has been hampered by the complicated life cycle of M. sydneyi, with outbreaks of QX disease likely to be regulated by a combination of the abundance of intermediate host of M. sydneyi, environmental stressors, and the immunocompetence of S. glomerata. The future of the Sydney rock oyster industry relies on understanding these factors and progressing the industry from relying on farming wild-caught seed to the successful commercialization of hatchery-produced QX-resistant S. glomerata

Evidence against a Human Cell-Specific Role for LRP6 in Anthrax Toxin Entry

The role of the cellular protein LRP6 in anthrax toxin entry is controversial. Previous studies showed that LRP6 was important for efficient intoxication of human M2182 prostate carcinoma cells but other studies performed with cells from gene-knockout mice demonstrated no role for either LRP6 or the related LRP5 protein in anthrax toxin entry. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is that LRP6 may be important for anthrax toxin entry into human, but not mouse, cells. To test this idea we have investigated the effect of knocking down LRP6 or LRP5 expression with siRNAs in human HeLa cells. We show here that efficient knockdown of either LRP6, LRP5, or both proteins has no influence on the kinetics of anthrax lethal toxin entry or MEK1 substrate cleavage in these cells. These data argue against a human-specific role for LRP6 in anthrax toxin entry and suggest instead that involvement of this protein may be restricted to certain cell types independently of their species of origin