PROCUREMENT STRATEGIES: IMPACTS OF QUALITY RISKS IN HARD WHEAT

Analytical models were developed in this paper to evaluate cost/risk tradeoffs of three alternative procurement strategies in the case of hard red spring (HRS) wheat. Results indicate a naive strategy has the lowest expected cost, but a high probability of not conforming to end-use requirements. Two alternative specifications for the constant share strategy result in higher probabilities of meeting requirements, but at higher costs. The opportunistic strategy results in a higher probability of meeting requirements than either of the other two alternative strategies at a comparable cost.Crop Production/Industries,

TRANSPARENCY AND BIDDING COMPETITION IN INTERNATIONAL WHEAT TRADE

One of the major trade policy problems identified by U.S. interests, including grower groups, traders, and policymakers, is that of pricing transparency. This has been a gnawing issue generally related to the pricing practices of competitor exporting countries with state trading enterprises (STEs). The transparency problem generally refers to the inability to observe rivals' terms of trade (including price, quality, credit, etc.) and is normally associated with commercial exporters competing against STE rivals. The perception being the less transparent competitors (STEs) would have a strategic advantage. A game theory model of bidding competition was developed to simulate the effects of information asymmetry amongst rivals. A Bayes-Nash equilibrium was used to derive equilibrium solutions. Several stylized examples were used to illustrate aspects of competition and to analyze effects on bidding strategies. Results indicate that: 1) anything that reduces uncertainties among rivals would reduce equilibrium bids and prices; 2) bidding situations in which there is less transparency have the effect of increasing bids and prices to buyers, and payoffs to sellers; and 3) increases in the number of rivals have the effect of reducing bids and mitigating the informational advantages of STEs. In all cases, less transparent sellers have an advantage in bidding competition relative to more transparent sellers. That advantage in our stylized case was in the area of 1-2$/mt. However, that advantage is mitigated with an increase in the number of transparent rivals and in the case where more transparent players have acted as agents for an STE and have more information about costs of an STE. Further, cessation of exports under U.S. EEP programs should have decreased the transparency of U.S. firms, increasing their competitiveness in the international grain trade.Price Transparency, Strategic Bidding, Game Theory, Bayesian-Nash, State Trading Enterprises, Export Enhancement Program, Wheat, International Relations/Trade,

PROCUREMENT STRATEGIES: IMPACTS OF QUALITY RISKS IN HARD WHEAT

Development and organization of procurement strategies have escalated in importance with maturity of the food processing industry, as well as with the prospect of greater choice attributable to variety development and information technology. Conventional alternatives for procurement range from spot purchases with specifications for easily measurable characteristics, to varying forms of strategies with pre-commitment. In the case of grains these choices are complicated by two factors. First, there is intrinsic uncertainty associated with end-use qualities that are not easily measurable. Second, grain prices and therefore procurement costs vary spatially due to competing market regions. Thus, shifting origins may involve higher cost due to having to bid grain away from its next best market. We posed three procurement strategies and developed analytical models to evaluate the risks and costs among these alternatives in the case of hard red spring (HRS) wheat. The first involves no commitment. The second involves some form of irrevocable commitment and the third entails less commitment. Stochastic simulation models were developed for each with an objective of cost minimization subject to different levels of risk. The results indicate that the naive strategy has the lowest expected cost, but a fairly high probability of not conforming to end-use requirements. The constant share strategies result in higher probabilities of meeting requirements, but at substantially higher costs. The opportunistic strategy results in a higher probability of meeting requirements than either of the other two alternative strategies at a comparable cost.Marketing, Agribusiness,

Grain Shipments on the Mississippi River System: A Long-Term Projection

The costs of delays for shipping commodities on the Mississippi River are important and adversely impact growth in shipments. Lock and dam expansion requires substantial capital investment and an extended time period to complete. This study analyzes delay costs and the competitive position of grain shipments on the Mississippi River system. A spatial optimization model of the world grain trade was developed. Results indicated that without expansion in barge capacity, delay costs in 2020 would increase on each reach, with some up to $1.08/mt. Expansion results in reduced delay costs. Barge demand is also impacted by rail capacity. Finally, expanding the locks would result in a re-allocation of shipments among modes, reaches, and ports, notwithstanding minor adjustments in production.Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade,

FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS AFFECTING WORLD GRAIN TRADE IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES

Replaced with corrected version of paper 04/04/08.International Relations/Trade,

Credit Guarantee Programs in International Grain Markets: Background and Issues

Marketing,

It's the Mind-Set That Matters: The Role of Construal Level and Message Framing in Influencing Consumer Efficacy and Conservation Behaviors

across three studies, this research elucidates when loss- versus gainframed messages are most effective in influencing consumer recycling by examining the moderating role of whether a more concrete or abstract mind-set is activated. First, in a field study, the authors demonstrate that loss frames are more efficacious when paired with low-level, concrete mind-sets, whereas gain frames are more effective when paired with high-level, abstract mind-sets. this is an important, substantive finding that persisted over a significant time span. in addition, in two additional laboratory studies, they find further evidence for this matching hypothesis, in which a pairing of loss- (gain-) framed messages that activates more concrete (abstract) mind-sets leads to enhanced processing fluency, increased efficacy, and, as a result, more positive recycling intentions. the findings have implications for marketers, consumers, and society as a whole

Mapping the Wigner distribution function of the Morse oscillator into a semi-classical distribution function

The mapping of the Wigner distribution function (WDF) for a given bound-state onto a semiclassical distribution function (SDF) satisfying the Liouville equation introduced previously by us is applied to the ground state of the Morse oscillator. Here we give results showing that the SDF gets closer to the corresponding WDF as the number of levels of the Morse oscillator increases. We find that for a Morse oscillator with one level only, the agreement between the WDF and the mapped SDF is very poor but for a Morse oscillator of ten levels it becomes satisfactory.Comment: Revtex, 27 pages including 13 eps figure

Dilaton-Axion hair for slowly rotating Kerr black holes

Campbell et al. demonstrated the existence of axion ``hair'' for Kerr black holes due to the non-trivial Lorentz Chern-Simons term and calculated it explicitly for the case of slow rotation. Here we consider the dilaton coupling to the axion field strength, consistent with low energy string theory and calculate the dilaton ``hair'' arising from this specific axion source.Comment: 13 pages + 1 fi