A theory of human error

Human errors tend to be treated in terms of clinical and anecdotal descriptions, from which remedial measures are difficult to derive. Correction of the sources of human error requires an attempt to reconstruct underlying and contributing causes of error from the circumstantial causes cited in official investigative reports. A comprehensive analytical theory of the cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error is indispensable to a reconstruction of the underlying and contributing causes. A validated analytical theory of the input-output behavior of human operators involving manual control, communication, supervisory, and monitoring tasks which are relevant to aviation, maritime, automotive, and process control operations is highlighted. This theory of behavior, both appropriate and inappropriate, provides an insightful basis for investigating, classifying, and quantifying the needed cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error

Driver steering dynamics measured in car simulator under a range of visibility and roadmaking conditions

A simulation experiment was conducted to determine the effect of reduced visibility on driver lateral (steering) control. The simulator included a real car cab and a single lane road image projected on a screen six feet in front of the driver. Simulated equations of motion controlled apparent car lane position in response to driver steering actions, wind gusts, and road curvature. Six drivers experienced a range of visibility conditions at various speeds with assorted roadmaking configurations (mark and gap lengths). Driver describing functions were measured and detailed parametric model fits were determined. A pursuit model employing a road curvature feedforward was very effective in explaining driver behavior in following randomly curving roads. Sampled-data concepts were also effective in explaining the combined effects of reduced visibility and intermittent road markings on the driver's dynamic time delay. The results indicate the relative importance of various perceptual variables as the visual input to the driver's steering control process is changed

Individual Learning About Consumption

The standard approach to modelling consumption/saving problems is to assume that the decisionmaker is solving a dynamic stochastic optimization problem However under realistic descriptions of utility and uncertainty the optimal consumption/saving decision is so difficult that only recently economists have managed to find solutions using numerical methods that require previously infeasible amounts of computation Yet empirical evidence suggests that household behavior conforms fairly well with the prescriptions of the optimal solution raising the question of how average households can solve problems that economists until recently could not This paper examines whether consumers might be able to find a reasonably good ’rule-of-thumb?approximation to optimal behavior by trial-and-error methods as Friedman (1953) proposed long ago We find that such individual learning methods can reliably identify reasonably good rules of thumb only if the consumer is able to spend absurdly large amounts of time searching for a good rule

Integrated research in constitutive modelling at elevated temperatures, part 2

Four current viscoplastic models are compared experimentally with Inconel 718 at 1100 F. A series of tests were performed to create a sufficient data base from which to evaluate material constants. The models used include Bodner's anisotropic model; Krieg, Swearengen, and Rhode's model; Schmidt and Miller's model; and Walker's exponential model

Effect of chlorine purification on oxidation resistance of some mechanical carbons

Oxidation experiments were conducted with some experimental and commercial mechanical carbons at 650 C in dry air flowing at 28 cc/sec (STP). In general, purification of these carbon-graphites with chlorine at 2800 C improved oxidation resistance. Additional improvements in oxidation resistance were obtained from purification followed by an antioxidant (zinc phosphate) treatment. For the commercial materials, purification alone gave greater oxidation resistance than the antioxidant treatment alone. The reverse, however, was the case for the experimental materials

Integrated research in constitutive modelling at elevated temperatures, part 1

Topics covered include: numerical integration techniques; thermodynamics and internal state variables; experimental lab development; comparison of models at room temperature; comparison of models at elevated temperature; and integrated software development

Traveling-wave tube circuit simplifies microwave relay

Circuit with a sawtooth-modulated traveling-wave tube, which acts as a frequency converter and as an amplifier, simplifies microwave transmission. Lower power losses and reduced size and weight are also realized in this circuit

Oxygen Absorption in Cooling Flows

The inhomogeneous cooling flow scenario predicts the existence of large quantities of gas in massive elliptical galaxies, groups, and clusters that have cooled and dropped out of the flow. Using spatially resolved, deprojected X-ray spectra from the ROSAT PSPC we have detected strong absorption over energies ~0.4-0.8 keV intrinsic to the central ~1 arcmin of the galaxy, NGC 1399, the group, NGC 5044, and the cluster, A1795. These systems have amongst the largest nearby cooling flows in their respective classes and low Galactic columns. Since no excess absorption is indicated for energies below ~0.4 keV the most reasonable model for the absorber is warm, collisionally ionized gas with T=10^{5-6} K where ionized states of oxygen provide most of the absorption. Attributing the absorption only to ionized gas reconciles the large columns of cold H and He inferred from Einstein and ASCA with the lack of such columns inferred from ROSAT, and also is consistent with the negligible atomic and molecular H inferred from HI, and CO observations of cooling flows. The prediction of warm ionized gas as the product of mass drop-out in these and other cooling flows can be verified by Chandra, XMM, and ASTRO-E.Comment: 4 pages (2 figures), Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters, no significant changes from previous submitted versio

Diffusion of a liquid nanoparticle on a disordered substrate

We perform molecular dynamic simulations of liquid nanoparticles deposited on a disordered substrate. The motion of the nanoparticle is characterised by a 'stick and roll' diffusive process. Long simulation times ($\simeq \mu s$), analysis of mean square displacements and stacking time distribution functions demonstrate that the nanoparticle undergoes a normal diffusion in spite of long sticking times. We propose a phenomenological model for the size and temperature dependence of the diffusion coefficient in which the activation energy scales as $N^{1/3}$.Comment: Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.