Money in monetary policy design: monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model

In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank’s preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions. Keywords: Monetary Policy, New-Keynesian Model, Money, Quantity Theory, European Central Bank, Policy Under Uncertaint

The Real-Time Predictive Content of Asset Price Bubbles for Macro Forecasts

This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can \lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble emergences and collapses. Building on simulations, the paper shows that the detection capabilities of all indicators are sensitive to their exact specifications and to the characteristics of the bubbles in the sample. Therefore, the paper suggests a combination approach of different bubble indicators which helps to account for the uncertainty around start and end dates of asset price bubbles. Additionally, the paper then investigates if the individual and combination indicators carry predictive content for inflation and output growth when the real-time availability of all variables is taken into account. It finds that a combination indicator is best suited to uncover the most common stock and house price bubbles in the U.S. and shows that this indicator improves output forecasts

Contribution of Social Isolation, Restraint, and Hindlimb Unloading to Changes in Hemodynamic Parameters and Motion Activity in Rats

The most accepted animal model for simulation of the physiological and morphological consequences of microgravity on the cardiovascular system is one of head-down hindlimb unloading. Experimental conditions surrounding this model include not only head-down tilting of rats, but also social and restraint stresses that have their own influences on cardiovascular system function. Here, we studied levels of spontaneous locomotor activity, blood pressure, and heart rate during 14 days under the following experimental conditions: cage control, social isolation in standard rat housing, social isolation in special cages for hindlimb unloading, horizontal attachment (restraint), and head-down hindlimb unloading. General activity and hemodynamic parameters were continuously monitored in conscious rats by telemetry. Heart rate and blood pressure were both evaluated during treadmill running to reveal cardiovascular deconditioning development as a result of unloading. The main findings of our work are that: social isolation and restraint induced persistent physical inactivity, while unloading in rats resulted in initial inactivity followed by normalization and increased locomotion after one week. Moreover, 14 days of hindlimb unloading showed significant elevation of blood pressure and slight elevation of heart rate. Hemodynamic changes in isolated and restrained rats largely reproduced the trends observed during unloading. Finally, we detected no augmentation of tachycardia during moderate exercise in rats after 14 days of unloading. Thus, we concluded that both social isolation and restraint, as an integral part of the model conditions, contribute essentially to cardiovascular reactions during head-down hindlimb unloading, compared to the little changes in the hydrostatic gradient

Monetary Policy Shocks, Set-identifying Restrictions, and Asset Prices: A Benchmarking Approach for Analyzing Set-identified Models

A central question for monetary policy is how asset prices respond to a monetary policy shock. We provide evidence on this issue by augmenting a monetary SVAR for US data with an asset price index, using set-identifying structural restrictions. The impulse responses show a positive asset price response to a contractionary monetary policy shock. The resulting monetary policy shocks correlate weakly with the Romer and Romer (2004) (RR) shocks, which matters greatly when analyzing impulse responses. Considering only models with shocks highly correlated with the RR series uncovers a negative, but near-zero response of asset prices

Palladium-Catalyzed Cross-Coupling of Various Phosphorous Pronucleophiles with Chloropyrazines - Synthesis of Novel An(III)-selective Extractants

Palladium-catalyzed cross-coupling of (di)chloropyrazines with phosphorus pronucleophiles in the presence of a base gave the phosphorylated pyrazines in 81-95% yields. Based on this methodology a series of appropriately functionalized pyrazines was prepared as potential extractants of trivalent cations from highly acidic nuclear waste. A few hydrophilic derivatives exhibited a very good selectivity for Am(3+) over Eu(3+) with separation factors up to 40 at pH 1 at 0.01 mol L(-1) ligand concentration