Forecasting workload for Defense Logistics Agency distribution

MBA Professional ReportThe Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) predicts issue and receipt workload for its distribution agency in order to maintain adequate staffing levels and set proper rates for customers. Inaccurate forecasts lead to inaccurate staffing, subsequently leading to inaccurate pricing. DLA’s current regression forecasting model is no longer adequate for predicting future workload for DLA Distribution. We explore multiple forecasting techniques and provide a methodology for selecting a model that is a viable and accurate alternative for DLA. Our methodology encompasses best-fit determination, a comparison of predictability through back-casting, and a sensitivity exercise to see reaction and stability of our selected models’ predictions. Finally, we compare our best performing model with the current regression model to see what would have been reported if our model had been used instead of the current model for recent Program Budget Review (PBR) cycles. Our results suggest that an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model used with critical assessment and managerial judgment offers a viable alternative to the current model for predicting distribution workload.http://archive.org/details/forecastingworkl1094544537Captain, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia.

INTRODUCTION: Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. METHODS: A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. RESULTS: Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia

Diarrhoeal disease outbreaks associated with sanitation provision failures in refugee camps worldwide: a literature review

The objective of this review is to identify sanitation failures that have contributed to the occurrence of diarrhoeal disease outbreaks among displaced populations living in camps. Three electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Global Health) and reference lists were searched for peer-reviewed literature using a systematic approach. Articles published since 1960 describing both diarrhoeal disease outbreaks and sanitation characteristics in camps hosting displaced populations were included. Evidence linking outbreaks to sanitation-related factors was synthesized and critically appraised. The search yielded 608 articles, of which 12 met inclusion criteria. They described cholera and shigellosis outbreaks occurring in 21 different camps between 1974 and 2009. Recurring contributing factors across outbreaks included a sudden population influx, inadequate provision or maintenance of latrines, sudden rains, and insufficient safe water quantities. Most studies were descriptive only or did not consider sanitation-related exposures in risk factor analyses. However, two case-control studies found that cases were significantly more likely than controls to share latrines with several households. Two other case-control studies identified an increased risk of infection from exposure to drinking contaminated river or shallow well water. Evidence from previous outbreak investigations illustrates how sanitation failures, particularly following population influxes, can contribute to the occurrence of diarrhoeal disease outbreaks in refugee camps. Further development and application of sanitation assessment tools and metrics would enable more robust evaluation of risks associated with specific sanitation-related exposures and the effectiveness of interventions. Recent guidelines address the identified risk factors but stakeholders should be aware of the impact of population dynamics

Physics of melt extraction from the mantle : speed and style

Funding: This research received funding from the European Research Council under Horizon 2020 research and innovation program grant agreement number 772255. The authors thank the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences for its hospitality during the programme Melt in the Mantle which was supported by EPSRC Grant Number EP/K032208/1.Melt extraction from the partially molten mantle is among the fundamental processes shaping the solid Earth today and over geological time. A diversity of properties and mechanisms contribute to the physics of melt extraction. We review progress of the past ∼25 years of research in this area, with a focus on understanding the speed and style of buoyancy-driven melt extraction. Observations of U-series disequilibria in young lavas and the surge of deglacial volcanism in Iceland suggest this speed is rapid compared to that predicted by the null hypothesis of diffuse porous flow. The discrepancy indicates that the style of extraction is channelized. We discuss how channelization is sensitive to mechanical and thermochemical properties and feedbacks, and to asthenospheric heterogeneity. We review the grain-scale physics that underpins these properties and hence determines the physical behavior at much larger scales. We then discuss how the speed of melt extraction is crucial to predicting the magmatic response to glacial and sea-level variations. Finally, we assess the frontier of current research and identify areas where significant advances are expected over the next 25 years. In particular, we highlight the coupling of melt extraction with more realistic models of mantle thermochemistry and rheological properties. This coupling will be crucial in understanding complex settings such as subduction zones. ▪ Mantle melt extraction shapes Earth today and over geological time. ▪ Observations, lab experiments, and theory indicate that melt ascends through the mantle at speeds ∼30 m/year by reactively channelized porous flow. ▪ Variations in sea level and glacial ice loading can cause significant changes in melt supply to submarine and subaerial volcanoes. ▪ Fluid-driven fracture is important in the lithosphere and, perhaps, in the mantle wedge of subduction zones, but remains a challenge to model.PreprintPeer reviewe

Who acquires infection from whom and how? Disentangling multi-host and multi-mode transmission dynamics in the 'elimination' era

Multi-host infectious agents challenge our abilities to understand, predict and manage disease dynamics. Within this, many infectious agents are also able to use, simultaneously or sequentially, multiple modes of transmission. Furthermore, the relative importance of different host species and modes can itself be dynamic, with potential for switches and shifts in host range and/ or transmission mode in response to changing selective pressures, such as those imposed by disease control interventions. The epidemiology of such multi-host, multi-mode infectious agents thereby can involve a multi-faceted community of definitive and intermediate/secondary hosts or vectors, often together with infectious stages in the environment, all of which may represent potential targets, as well as specific challenges, particularly where disease elimination is proposed. Here, we explore, focusing on examples fromboth human and animal pathogen systems, why and how we should aim to disentangle and quantify the relative importance of multi-host multi-mode infectious agent transmission dynamics under contrasting conditions, and ultimately, how this can be used to help achieve efficient and effective disease control. This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'

Operation of Faddeev-Kernel in Configuration Space

We present a practical method to solve Faddeev three-body equations at energies above three-body breakup threshold as integral equations in coordinate space. This is an extension of previously used method for bound states and scattering states below three-body breakup threshold energy. We show that breakup components in three-body reactions produce long-range effects on Faddeev integral kernels in coordinate space, and propose numerical procedures to treat these effects. Using these techniques, we solve Faddeev equations for neutron-deuteron scattering to compare with benchmark solutions.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, to be published in Few-Body System

Exploring why animal health practices are (not) adopted among smallholders in low and middle-income countries: a realist framework and scoping review protocol

BackgroundImproving livestock health is considered critical to address poverty, malnutrition and food insecurity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Modifications of livestock management practices is also increasingly recognized as an important strategy to mitigate global threats such as climate change and novel disease emergence. Smallholders are, however, under various constraints which prohibit them from altering health practices for livestock and little is known about how the adoption of these practices may be promoted. The proposed scoping review aims to systematically map evidence around “what practices are (not) adopted by smallholders under what circumstances, how and why?.”Method and analysisWe conducted initial scoping searches to broadly define types of animal health practices relevant for smallholders in LMICs and formulated search terms. A scoping review protocol was designed and registered. A systematic literature search will be conducted using electronic databases including CAB Abstract, Scopus, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science Core Collection. Gray literature will be searched from AGRIS and Standards for Supporting Agricultural Livelihoods in Emergencies. Articles in English, pertaining to the animal health practices considered highly relevant will be considered eligible for inclusion. Articles will be screened at two stages by two independent reviewers; screening of titles, abstracts, and keywords, followed by full-article screening. The first reviewer will review 100% of the articles at both stages. The second reviewer will review a random sample of 20% of the articles at both stages. Any disagreements will be resolved using inputs from the third reviewer. A thematic analysis will be conducted to catalog contexts and mechanisms for adoption and discussed under a realist framework.DiscussionUnderstanding of the mechanisms underlying the adoption of animal health practices by livestock smallholders in LMICs is crucial for successful implementation of interventions including those which are based on a One Health approach. This review will identify the extent of this knowledge across disciplines and inform future research priorities for the design of effective and feasible interventions which can contribute toward Sustainable Development Goal 2.RegistrationThis protocol is registered within the Open Science Framework (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/FUQAX)

Mapping emerging trends and South–South cooperation in regional knowledge networks: A bibliometric analysis of avian influenza research in Southeast Asia

This paper maps emerging trends and South-South cooperation in regional knowledge networks through a bibliometric analysis of avian influenza research in Southeast Asia, between 2004 and 2019. The findings indicate that a substantial research output involving researchers and organisations in the region was generated. However, wide disparities between countries existed, both in terms of output and participation in the regional network, which was largely driven by non-regional actors. A more proactive involvement of institutions for regional cooperation such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would increase local ownership, sustainability and redress imbalances in the regional research system