Time and dose dependency of bone-sarcomas in patients injected with radium-224

The time course and dose dependency of the incidence of bone-sarcomas among 900 German patients treated with high doses of radium-224 is analysed in terms of a proportional hazards model with a log-normal dependency of time to tumor and a linear-quadratic dose relation. The deduced dose dependency agrees well with a previous analysis in terms of a non-parametric proportional hazards model, and confirms the temporal distribution which has been used in the Radioepidemiological Tables of NIH. However, the linear-quadratic dose-response model gives a risk estimate for low doses which is somewhat less than half that obtained under the assumption of linearity. Dedicated to Prof. W. Jacobi on the occasion of his 60th birthday Work performed under Euratom contracts BI6-D-083-D, BI6-F-111-D, U.S. Department of Energy contract DE-AC 02-76 EV-00119, the U.S. National Cancer Institut

The reverse protraction factor in the induction of bone sarcomas in radium-224 patients

More than 50 bone sarcomas have occurred among a collective of about 800 patients who had been injected in Germany after World War II with large activities of radium-224 for the intended treatment of bone tuberculosis and ankylosing spondylitis.^In an earlier analysis it was concluded that, at equal mean absorbed doses in the skeleton, patients with longer exposure time had a higher incidence of bone sarcomas.^The previous analysis was based on approximations; in particular, it did not account for the varying times at risk of the individual patients.^In view of the implications of a reverse protraction factor for basic considerations in radiation protection, the need was therefore felt to reevaluate the data from the continued follow-up by more rigorous statistical methods.^A first step of the analysis demonstrates the existence of the reverse dose-rate effect in terms of a suitably constructed rank-order test.^In a second step of the analysis it is concluded that the data are consistent with a linear no-threshold dose dependence under the condition of constant exposure time, while there is a steeper than linear dependence on dose when the exposure times increase proportionally to dose.^A maximum likelihood fit of the data is then performed in terms of a proportional hazards model that includes the individual parameters, dose, treatment duration, and age at treatment.^The fit indicates proportionality of the tumor rates to mean skeletal dose with an added factor (1 + 0.18.tau), where tau is the treatment time in months.^This indicates that a protraction of the injections over 15 months instead of 5 months doubles the risk of bone sarcoma

A Synthetic Analysis of the Polish Solidarity Movement

The aim of this study is to arrive at a holistic understanding of how and why the Polish Solidarity Movement succeeded, against great odds, within a regime hostile to its existence. From this movement emerged Solidarnosc, the first independent labor union in the Communist Bloc. Solidarnosc evolved into a political party that succeeded in replacing the Communist Party in Poland. Seven factors are elaborated on, each contended to have facilitated Solidarnosc\u27s success. Some factors occurred naturally (such as the structural conduciveness of Poland\u27s industrially based economy), some occurred fortunately (such as the political opportunity afforded by Mikhail Gorbachev\u27s liberalizing policies), and some were deliberately constructed (such as use of samizdat communications in mobilizing the movement). This study is a synthesis of these various facilitating factors. Ethnographic description is also part of the explanation, as is inclusion of eclectic factors that do not pigeon-hole well into conventional social movement theory compartments

Reservoir design: simulation techniques

A simulation model is developed to aid in the analysis of small dams to reduce the possibility of inadequate spillway designs. Basic assumptions concerning the geometric aspects of the natural reservoir are made to develop the model which is based upon describing the timing and magnitude of a design flood passing through a reservoir. Simulation equations are derived from the basic continuity equation and describe reservoir outflow and storage as functions of reservoir depth. Newton\u27s Iteration Technique is utilized to solve the simulation equations for the reservoir depth. The resulting simulation model determines an optimum size auxiliary spillway having a minimum crest length for a range of spillway elevations. Estimated project cost equations are developed for an aid in the comparative analysis of alternative projects --Abstract, page ii

Poland’s Place In The Soviet Bloc: Historical And Cultural Linkages, Political Transformation, And Everyday Economic Alternatives In Gdańsk and Wałbrzych

The aim of this study is to arrive at a holistic understanding of Poland’s place in the Soviet Bloc, 1945 – 1989. Throughout, the study considers historical and cultural linkages between Poland and Russia, drawing parallels and contrasts which have shaped the destinies of both nations. It explains how Poland became part of the Soviet system, the successes and failures of the system, and how common people adapted to and eventually altered the system. Special emphasis is placed on the ‘lived experience’ of the last decade of socialism (1979 – 1989), including oral histories of subsistence economic strategies, black market trading, alternative employment scenarios, parallel political action, and underground communications (samizdat or bibuła.) The study makes several contentions based on interview data, oral histories, and direct communications with over 50 individuals, mainly in the cities of Gdańsk, on the Baltic Coast, and Wałbrzych, 400 miles south on the Polish – Czech border. Among these contentions is that survival in Poland’s dysfunctional economy during the last decade before the 1989 transition depended on innovation, self-initiative, networking, and risk-taking - traits usually associated (by Westerners) with entrepreneurialism within a capitalist economy - not with daily life in a communist state. The study refutes other commonly held Western beliefs concerning socialist-era Poland and the USSR, including negative assumptions about ‘socialist work habits,’ inaccurate generalizations about the uniformity of socialist economic and political orthodoxy, and false interpretations concerning the 1989 – 1991 transition of the Soviet Bloc. In short, to each of these three items respectively, the study demonstrates a prevalence of a ‘proletarian work ethic’ rivaling any found in the West, two very different ‘versions’ of socialism (greatly dysfunctional in Gdańsk while a ‘golden age’ in Wałbrzych), and a vast propensity for a transition bringing social democracy, not unregulated ‘Wild East’ capitalism as fetishized by Western neoconservatives in an effort to co-opt the Soviet Bloc transition to their service

Bone sarcoma cumulative tumor rates in patients injected with 224Ra

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An epidemiological assessment of lens opacifications that impaired vision in patients injected with radium-224

The incidence of lens opacifications that impaired vision (cataract) was analyzed among 831 patients who were injected with known dosages of 224Ra in Germany shortly after World War II. The dependence of the incidence on dosage, i.e., injected activity per unit body weight, and on time after treatment was determined. The observations are equally consistent with proportionality of the incidence of cataract to the square of dosage or with a linear dependence beyond a threshold of 0.5 MBq/kg. The possibility of a linear dependence without threshold was strongly rejected (P less than 0.001). The analysis of temporal dependences yielded a component that was correlated with the injected amount of 224Ra and a component that was uncorrelated. The former was inferred by a maximum likelihood analysis to increase approximately as the square of the time after treatment. The component unrelated to the treatment was found to increase steeply with age and to become dominant within the collective of patients between age 50 and 60. The relative magnitudes of the two components were such that a fraction of 55 to 60% of the total of 58 cataracts had to be ascribed to the dose-related incidence. Impaired vision due to cataract was diagnosed before age 54 in 25 cases. In terms of injected activity per unit body weight no dependence of the sensitivity on age was found; specifically there was no indication of a faster occurrence of the treatment-related cataracts in patients treated at older ages