Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2–5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global action to reduce air pollutant emissions is needed to make sure that ozone damage in Europe decreases towards the middle of this century

A Scalable Approach to Modelling Health Impacts of Air Pollution Based on Globally Available Data

Integrated assessment of air pollution and its impacts typically requires pre-calculated atmospheric transfer relations on a fine spatial resolution. While such concepts have been applied successfully for Europe and other regions with high data coverage, extending calculations to world regions with low local data availability is challenging and needs to be based on globally available data sets. Here we introduce a scalable approach which has been developed to expand the calculations of health impacts from exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model to (almost) any desired region on the globe, depending on actual requirements for policy analysis. We use global sensitivity simulations of the EMEP atmospheric chemistry transport model to derive linear transfer coefficients at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. A major challenge lies in the realistic representation of inner urban PM2.5 concentrations, which depend to a large extent on local pollution sources on scales below grid resolution. We derive sub-grid concentration increments from emission densities of primary PM from low-level sources, based on (almost) globally available gridded population data with approximately 100m resolution. From ambient PM2.5 concentrations, increased risk of mortality is then calculated following the methodology of the Global Burden of Disease studies. We have implemented and validated the described approach for India, China, and Indonesia, with extensions to other G-20 member countries underway. Health impact projections under different energy policy scenarios are discussed. Due to the inherent treatment of urban areas, the effects of urbanization trends are captured explicitly, which lead to higher average population exposure as people move into polluted cities

Semantic data integration from Multi Linked Model Framework

Model integration is becoming increasingly important due to the requirements for multi-scale and multi-objective assessment and decision making. Moreover, instead of incorporating all complex related information system models that are relevant for different related aspects into one super-model, a multi linked model framework has been proposed to extract data and output from multiple linked models into the coherent data warehouse, which respects the interdependency of data from different model as well as additional knowledge already contained in its existing data cubes. In this paper, first the multi linked model framework is defined in a very formal manner. The mathematical abstract specification provides the basis for handling data exchange among various linked models as well as data from those models integrated into a data warehouse. In this context, an ETL (extract- transform-load) process has been specified to integrate data from linked models. A new feature of our approach in comparison with other ETL processes is that our transformations also require input from the data warehouse, i.e. exchanging data from linked models with the data warehouse. Hereafter, the data warehouse is developed in term of multidimensional database. While each model may keep very detailed and intermediate ('raw') data and results, the data warehouse only contains integrated data that are appropriate for the task at hand. As a proof of concept, the multi linked model framework is used to develop a common knowledge pool in term of data warehouse on the representation of socio-economic heterogeneity, and strengthen the information flows among multi linked models, e.g. population projections, energy-economic, and air pollution integrated assessment models etc., which have been developed at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Distinct polyadenylation landscapes of diverse human tissues revealed by a modified PA-seq strategy

Background: Polyadenylation is a key regulatory step in eukaryotic gene expression and one of the major contributors of transcriptome diversity. Aberrant polyadenylation often associates with expression defects and leads to human diseases. Results: To better understand global polyadenylation regulation, we have developed a polyadenylation sequencing (PA-seq) approach. By profiling polyadenylation events in 13 human tissues, we found that alternative cleavage and polyadenylation (APA) is prevalent in both protein-coding and noncoding genes. In addition, APA usage, similar to gene expression profiling, exhibits tissue-specific signatures and is sufficient for determining tissue origin. A 3? untranslated region shortening index (USI) was further developed for genes with tandem APA sites. Strikingly, the results showed that different tissues exhibit distinct patterns of shortening and/or lengthening of 3? untranslated regions, suggesting the intimate involvement of APA in establishing tissue or cell identity. Conclusions: This study provides a comprehensive resource to uncover regulated polyadenylation events in human tissues and to characterize the underlying regulatory mechanism

TSAP-2012 Baseline: Health and environmental impacts

This report examines the health and environmental impacts of the TSAP-2012 baseline emission scenarios that have been presented in the TSAP Report #1 to the Stakeholder Expert Group in June 2012. The baseline suggests for the next decades a steady decline of energy-related emissions from industry, households and transport while no significant changes are foreseen for NH3 from agricultural activities. These emission trajectories will lead to significant improvements in air quality. For instance, loss of statistical life expectancy from exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is expected to decline from 9.6 months in 2000 and 6.9 months in 2010 to 5.5 months in 2020 and 5.0 months in 2030. It is estimated that the number of premature deaths attributable to short-term exposure of ground-level ozone will drop by about 30% by 2020. Ecosystems area where biodiversity is threatened by excess nitrogen deposition will shrink from 1.2 million km2 in 2000 to 900,000 km2 in 2030, and acidification will remain an issue at only four percent of the European forest area. However, by 2020 the baseline improvements for fine particular matter health impacts and eutrophication will fall short of the targets established in the 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, while for acidification and ozone these targets will be met. Furthermore, it is unlikely that the baseline development will achieve full compliance with the air quality limit values for PM10 and NO2 throughout Europe. Equally, the baseline scenario will not provide protection against excess nitrogen deposition at almost 50% of the legally protected Natura2000 areas and other protected zones. In addition, the magnitude of air pollution impacts and resulting damage remains substantial. It is estimated that for the baseline in 2030, the European population would still suffer a loss of 210 million life-years and experience 18,000 premature deaths because of ozone exposure. Biodiversity will remain threatened by excess nitrogen input at 900,000 km2 of ecosystems, including 250,000 km2 which are legally protected, inter alia as Natura2000 areas. The analysis also highlights the scope for additional measures that could alleviate the remaining damage and move closer to the objectives of the Sixth Environment Action Program. Full application of readily available technical emission reduction measures in the EU could reduce health impacts from PM by 2020 by another 30% and thereby gain more than 55 million life-years in the EU. It could save another 3,000 premature deaths per year because of lower ozone concentrations. Further controls of agricultural emissions could protect biodiversity at another 200,000 km2 of ecosystems against excess nitrogen deposition, including 50,000 km2 of Natura2000 areas and other protected zones. It could eliminate almost all likely exceedances of PM10 air quality limit values in the old Member States, while in the urban areas of new Member States additional action to substitute solid fuels in the household sector with cleaner forms of energy would be required. Such Europe-wide emission controls would also eliminate in 2030 all likely cases of noncompliance with EU air quality standards for NO2 with the exception of a few stations for which additional local measures (e.g., traffic restrictions, low emission zones) would be necessary. While the general trend appears to be robust, quantification of the remaining effects requires more uncertainty analyses

Modelling street level PM10 concentrations across Europe: source apportionment and possible futures

Despite increasing emission controls, particulate matter (PM) has remained a critical issue for European air quality in recent years. The various sources of PM, both from primary particulate emissions as well as secondary formation from precursor gases, make this a complex problem to tackle. In order to allow for credible predictions of future concentrations under policy assumptions, a modelling approach is needed that considers all chemical processes and spatial dimensions involved, from long-range transport of pollution to local emissions in street canyons. Here we describe a modelling scheme which has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model to assess compliance with PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameter <10 um) limit values at individual air quality monitoring stations reporting to the AirBase database. The modelling approach relies on a combination of bottom up modelling of emissions, simplified atmospheric chemistry and dispersion calculations, and a traffic increment calculation wherever applicable. At each monitoring station fulfilling a few data coverage criteria, measured concentrations in the base year 2009 are explained to the extent possible and then modelled for the past and future. More than 1850 monitoring stations are covered, including more than 300 traffic stations and 80% of the stations which exceeded the EU air quality limit values in 2009. As a validation, we compare modelled trends in the period 2000-2008 to observations, which are well reproduced. The modelling scheme is applied here to quantify explicitly source contributions to ambient concentrations at several critical monitoring stations, displaying the differences in spatial origin and chemical composition of urban roadside PM10 across Europe. Furthermore, we analyse the predicted evolution of PM10 concentrations in the European Union until 2030 under different policy scenarios. Significant improvements in ambient PM10 concentrations are expected assuming successful implementation of already agreed legislation; however, these will not be large enough to ensure attainment of PM10 limit values in hot spot locations such as Southern Poland and major European cities. Remaining issues are largely eliminated in a scenario applying the best available emission control technologies to the maximal technically feasible extent

Investment perspectives on costs for air pollution control affect the optimal use of emission control measures

Cost-effective air pollution emission control has been in focus for decades in international air pollution regulations. Despite large observed emission reductions for many air pollutants, environmental and human health problems persist and more efforts are needed. However, some stakeholders are concerned that the costs for remaining emission control measures are prohibitively high. There are several reasons for concern, and one can be the difference in investment perspectives—i.e. costs of borrowing and time constraints—held by stakeholders. By using the integrated assessment model GAINS, we study whether differences in investment perspectives of Nordic stakeholders influence measures selected for cost-effective emission control and can motivate concerns for high costs of emission control. We distinguish the control cost calculations between a social planner perspective and a corporate perspective and apply these to the GAINS model database on emission control measures. A cost-minimized selection of measures in 2030 is then calculated for increasing environmental and health ambitions for both perspectives. The results show an irregular pattern, but for a range of ambition levels the corporate perspective affects the selection of measures and implies surplus costs for the Nordic social planner of up to 120 million € per year. This is 36% more expensive than the costs of the social planners’ selection. Conversely, from a corporate perspective the social planners’ selection can imply cost increases of up to 180 million €. We therefore suggest that control of investment perspective effects should be standard in analysis of cost-effective air pollution measures

Potentials for future reductions of global GHG and air pollutant emissions from circular municipal waste management systems

Recent trajectories of production and consumption patterns have resulted in massively rising quantities of municipal solid waste (MSW). Building on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, we build two sets of global scenarios until 2050, namely baseline and mitigation scenarios. We assess trajectories of future MSW generation and the impact of MSW management strategies on methane and air pollutant emissions. In 2050, the adoption of mitigation strategies in the sustainability-oriented scenario yields earlier, and major, co-benefits compared to scenarios in which inequalities are reduced but that are focused solely on technical solutions. In 2050, the GHG emissions in the sustainability-oriented scenario amount to 182 Gg CO2eq/yr of CH4, to be released while particulate matter, and air pollutants from open burning of MSW can be virtually eliminated. We demonstrate that the 6.3 target of the SDG 6 can only be achieved through more ambitious sustainability-oriented scenarios that limit MSW generation and improve management