Information in conflicts

We consider a two-player contest for a prize of common but uncertain value. We show that less resources are spent in equilibrium if one party is privately informed about the value of a prize than if either both agents are informed or neither agent is informed. Furthermore, the uninformed agent is ex ante strictly more likely to win the prize than is the informed agent. -- Der Autor untersucht einen Wettbewerb mit zwei Spielern um einen Gewinn von allgemeinem, jedoch unbekanntem Wert. Er zeigt, daß im Vergleich zu einer Situation in der beide oder keiner von beiden Akteuren die Höhe des Gewinns kennen, weniger Ressourcen im Gleichgewicht verwendet werden, als in dem Fall in dem einer der beiden Spieler über die Höhe des Gewinns informiert ist. Des weiteren ist es ex ante streng genommen wahrscheinlicher, daß der uninformierte Spieler den Gewinn erhält und nicht der informierte.Conflict,contest,asymmetric information,all-pay auction

Demystifying rational expectations theory through an economic-psychological model

Rational Expectations;Economic Models;Economic Psychology

Rent, risk, and replication: preference adaptation in winner-take-all markets

We study the evolution of an economy where agents who are heterogeneous with respect to risk attitudes can either earn a certain income or enter a risky rent-seeking contest. We assume that agents behave rationally given their preferences, but that the population distribution of preferences evolves over time in response to material payoffs. We show that, in particular, initial distributions with full support converge to stationary states where all types may still be present, risk lovers specialize in rentseeking, and the available rents are perfectly dissipated. -- Der Autor untersucht die Entwicklung einer Volkswirtschaft, in der sich die Akteure in ihrer Einstellung zu Risiken unterscheiden. Sie können entweder ein bestimmtes Einkommen erlangen oder sich in einen riskanten Rent-Seeking-Wettbewerb (Wettbewerb zum Erlangen einer Rente) begeben. Angenommen wird rationales Verhalten der Akteure bei gegebenen Präferenzen an, wobei sich die Verteilung der Präferenzen innerhalb der Bevölkerung als Antwort auf die materiellen Ergebnisse des Wettbewerbs entwickelt. Es wird gezeigt, daß im einzelnen, die ursprünglichen Verteilungen mit ganzer Unterstützung gegen stationäre Zustände konvergieren, in welchen noch immer alle Typen präsent sein können. Dabei spezialisieren sich risikofreudige Individuen auf Rent-seeking und die erzielbaren Renten sind perfekt gestreut.Preference evolution, risk attitudes, contests, winner-take-all markets

Conflict and the Social Contract

We consider social contracts for resolving conflicts between two agents who are uncertain about each other's fighting potential. Applications include international conflict, litigation, and elections. Even though only a peaceful agreement avoids a loss of resources, if this loss is small enough, then any contract must assign a positive probability of conflict. We show how the likelihood of conflict outbreak depends on the distribution of power between the agents and their information about each other

Long-Run Selection and the Work Ethic

That individuals contribute in social dilemma interactions even when contributing is costly is a well-established observation in the experimental literature. Since a contributor is always strictly worse off than a non-contributor the question is raised if an intrinsic motivation to contribute can survive in an evolutionary setting. Using recent results on deterministic approximation of stochastic evolutionary dynamics we give conditions for equilibria with a positive number of contributors to be selected in the long run.work ethic, evolution, group selection, public goods, stochastic dynamics

Finite-Population "Mass-Action" and Evolutionary Stability

Nash proposed an interpretation of mixed strategies as the average pure-strategy play of a population of players randomly matched to play a normal-form game. If populations are finite, some equilibria of the underlying game have no such corresponding “mass-action” equilibrium. We show that for mixed strategy equilibria of 2 × 2 games, the requirement of such a correspondence is equivalent to neutral evolutionary stability.mass action, finite population games, evolutionary stability

Conflict and the Social Contract

We consider social contracts for resolving conflicts between two agents who are uncertain about each other's fighting potential. Applications include international conflict, litigation, and elections. Even though only a peaceful agreement avoids a loss of resources, if this loss is small enough, then any contract must assign a positive probability of conflict. We show how the likelihood of conflict outbreak depends on the distribution of power between the agents and their information about each other.conflict; social contracts; asymmetric information

Long-run selection and the work ethic

That individuals contribute in social dilemma interactions even when contributing is costly is a well-established observation in the experimental literature. Since a contributor is always strictly worse off than a non-contributor the question is raised if an intrinsic motivation to contribute can survive in an evolutionary setting. Using recent results on deterministic approximation of stochastic evolutionary dynamics we give conditions for equilibria with a positive number of contributors to be selected in the long run.Work ethic, evolution, group selection, public goods, stochastic dynamics

Observable Strategies, Commitments, and Contracts

We consider rules (strategies, commitments, contracts, or computer programs) that make behavior contingent on an opponent's rule. The set of perfectly observable rules is not well defined. Previous contributions avoid this problem by restricting the rules deemed admissible. We instead limit the information available about rules. Each player can only observe which class, out of a collection of classes smaller than the number of rules, the opponent's rule belongs to. For any underlying 2-player, finite, normal-form game there is a game extended with coarsely observable strategies that has equilibria with payoffs arbitrarily close to any feasible, individually rational payoff profile