Electoral System Change, Generations, Competitiveness and Turnout in New Zealand, 1963–2005

publication-status: Publishedtypes: ArticleNew Zealand’s recent elections have been held under a Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system, after nearly a century of single-member plurality (SMP) elections. This article addresses the effect on turnout in recent elections of electoral system change, generational differences, and national and district-level competitiveness. Both theory and cross-sectional empirical evidence indicate that turnout should be higher in New Zealand after the change to MMP. Yet, if anything, turnout has continued to decline. Most of this turnout decline, it turns out, is an effect of longer-term trends of declining competition and generational change, lag effects of which persist under MMP. MMP changed the main focus of electoral competition from the district to the national level, with consequent changes in the distribution of turnout. Electoral boundary changes also have effects

Forecasting and Evaluating the Consequences of Electoral Change in New Zealand

The debate in New Zealand over whether to adopt a mixed-member proportional (MMP) system was based on a number of predictions about the effects of electoral systems. After four elections under MMP we are now in a better position to evaluate the validity of these claims. We find that both proponents and opponents made claims that proved to be true but there were also unforeseen consequences that neither side predicted

Electoral Competitiveness and Turnout in British Elections, 1964-2010

This is the author version accepted for publication in Political Science Research and Methods. The final version is forthcoming and will be available on the Publisher's website via http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=RAMAnalyzing the British Election Study from 1964 to 2010, we examine the influence of electoral context on turnout, focusing on the closeness of elections in terms of lagged seat and constituency-level winning margins. Using cross-classified multilevel models to account for individual and contextual factors and disentangle life-cycle, cohort- and election-specific effects, we find that closeness strongly affects voting behavior, particularly among new electors. Widening seat margins in British elections over the last decades have had a persistent impact on turnout. Respondents who faced less competitive environments when young are more likely to abstain in subsequent elections than those reaching voting age after close-fought races. We conclude that variations in competitiveness have had both short- and long-term effects on turnout

A Bark But No Bite

Based on New Zealand Election Study (NZES) data from a sample of 2,830 eligible voters, A Bark But No Bite explores a puzzle. While there was a lot of talk about inequality before the 2014 general election in New Zealand, and during the campaign, concern about inequality appeared to have no tangible effect on the election outcome. This book shows that, by its attention to the concerns of middle ground voters, the National Government had reduced the potential of policy differences to drive voter choices. Perceptions of competence and effective leadership were National’s strongest suit, crowding out voter concerns over matters of policy. When voters did consider policy, inequality and related concerns were second to the economy. Traditional priorities about health and education, and perceptions of party differences on these matters, had faded into the background. Meanwhile, voters doubted the opposition Labour Party’s ability to govern effectively in an alternative coalition to that of the National-led government. Labour’s policies were too many. In various ways, they would have chipped away at inequality, but lacked a coherent narrative and presentation. This book confirms that Labour’s proposal to increase the age for receipt of New Zealand superannuation gained Labour no new votes. Hopes that the ‘missing million’ people who failed to turn out to vote in 2011 would vote in 2014 and give an advantage to the left were unfulfilled. A comprehensive study of the 2014 election, this book provides a detailed account of all these findings, and a host of others

Reviews

Reviews of Incomes policy in New Zealand : 1968-1984, Economics: a workers' education manual, Lost managers: Supervisors In Industry and society, The closed shop in British industry

The 1996 election in New Zealand. by Jack Vowles

tag=1 data=The 1996 election in New Zealand. by Jack Vowles tag=2 data=Vowles, Jack tag=3 data=Current Affairs Bulletin, tag=4 data=73 tag=5 data=5 tag=6 data=February/March 1997 tag=7 data=4-7. tag=8 data=ELECTIONS-NEW ZEALAND%VOTING SYSTEMS tag=9 data=MIXED MEMBER PROPORTIONAL SYSTEM tag=10 data=Major changes from one electoral system to another are rare events, and they are particularly rare in long-established continuous democracies. tag=11 data=1997/3/3 tag=12 data=97/0064 tag=13 data=CABMajor changes from one electoral system to another are rare events, and they are particularly rare in long-established continuous democracies

From corporation to workers’ control : the formation of British guild socialism

Interest has lately revived in turn of the century movements such as syndicalism, industrial unionism, and guild socialism, but so far the origins and formation of guild socialism in Edwardian England have been left relatively unexplored. Work on guild socialism has generally focussed upon the major ideologist of the movement, G.D.H. Cole (1889-1959), who did not participate in the formation of the first version of guild socialism. The careers, ideas, and writings of those usually regarded as the founders of guild socialism - Arthur J. Penty (1875-1937), Alfred R. Orage (1873-1934), and Samuel G. Hobson (1870-1940) - are discussed and set in the context of the intellectual, social, and political life of late Victorian and Edwardian England, and the extension of 'the guild idea' to other individuals and groups with different outlooks and experiences is traced and discussed. It is concluded that the politics and early social theory of G.D.H. Cole are better understood when placed in the wider context of the guild movement as a whole. Closer attention to the origins and formation of guild socialism also reveals that Arthur Penty, largely through whom the concept of the guild was to enter the ideology, had corporatist tendencies opposed both to workers' control and to democracy in general. Further, contrary to many views, guild socialism did not fully break free of the Fabianism it criticised. Neither were the basic ideas of guild socialism original although, synthesised and elaborated most competently by Cole, and despite persistent difficulties and flaws, they were to add up to an original contribution to political theory. Guild Socialism was born in Platonic utopianism, aestheticism, English nationalism, and middle class social concern, but as 'a synthesis of different points of view' came to be founded upon an Aristotelian ideal of balance. Beginning in a defence of the state against syndicalism, guild socialism later became an attack on the state in the cause of individual and communal liberty, thus developing a pluralism largely absent among its founders, whose religious approach to socialism was based upon a predetermined if amorphously expressed vision of the good. For Cole, on the other hand, good was a quality lodged only in the freedom of ordinary men and women to determine their own ends.Arts, Faculty ofPolitical Science, Department ofGraduat

How do we treat the Treaty? by Jack Vowles

Ten years ago, a discussion of the New Zealand Constitution could have neglected entirely the Treaty of Waitangi. In 1991 the Treaty is generally agreed to have a central constitutional significance