Forecasting tourist arrivals at attractions: Search engine empowered methodologies

© The Author(s) 2018. Tourist decision to visit attractions is a complex process influenced by multiple factors of individual context. This study investigates how the accuracy of tourism demand forecasting can be improved at the micro level. The number of visits to five London museums is forecast and the predictive powers of Naïve I, seasonal Naïve, seasonal autoregressive moving average, seasonal autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables, SARMAX-mixed frequency data sampling and artificial neural network models are compared. The empirical findings extend understanding of different types of data and forecasting algorithms to the level of specific attractions. Introducing the Google Trends index on pure time-series models enhances the forecasts of the volume of arrivals to attractions. However, none of the applied models outperforms the others in all situations. Different models’ forecasting accuracy varies for short- and long-term demand predictions. The application of higher frequency search query data allows for the generation of weekly predictions, which are essential for attraction- and destination-level planning

Bioecological evaluation of the quality of the surface runoff from urban territories (case study of the city of Brest)

И. Бульская, А. Волчек, А. Колбас. Биоэкологическая оценка качества поверхностного стока с городских территорий (на примере г. Бреста

Processes at Platinum Electrodes during the Cathode Polarization in Alcohol Erbium Nitrate Solution

The processes at platinum electrodes during the cathode polarization in an alcohol solution of erbium nitrate are discussed. The current density maxima on the cathode branch of voltammograms were found to correspond to the potentials of the hydrogen reduction reactions. The gel-like deposit Er(OH)x(NO3)y(С2Н5О)z·nH2O, x + y + z = 3, formed during the cathode treatment was shown to be not a product of the electron exchange between the cathode and the solution components. The following formation mechanism of the erbium-containing deposit has been suggested. First, the electrochemical process of the hydrogen cathode reduction is implemented. This process leads to the ionic unbalance and causes the alkalinization of the cathode space. This creates conditions for the chemical process of the gel-like erbium hydroxide formation, which is physically adsorbed on the cathode surface as a precipitate

Determination of the readiness of medical personnel to provide health system responsiveness

BACKGROUND: In many countries health systems do not responsiveness and this is in part due to lack of information on medical personnel’s involvement. To provide health system responsiveness according to investigation of motivation, quality of work life, job involvement and work engagement. METHODS: 362 medical workers of Ukraine were asked. Methods of medical personnel’s work motivation and quality of work life studying were used, adapted Utrecht work engagement scale and Gallup’s 12 questions. As a method of statistical analysis of results the descriptive statistics and correlation-regression analysis was used. RESULTS: The 137 medical workers (37.57%) have got value oriented type of motivation as predominant, which is characterized by equal value of professional duties without strong attachment to financial or career interest. Regression model of medical personnel’s involvement in providing health system responsiveness was developed based on including such parameter as: integrative estimation of quality of work life, motivation level, general work engagement level and age of the workers. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement of work engagement and quality of work life are needed for remarkable improvement of health system responsiveness by means of influence on medical personnel

Усовершенствованная модель прессования порошковой смеси в валковом прессе

A new mathematical model of mineral fertilizer compacting using a roll compactor is developed. This model is based on the transition to the values of stress tensor components averaged over the cross-sectional area of the powder mixture flow. To define these stresses, equations of equilibrium of the elementary layer determined in the mixture by two planes perpendicular to the flow direction are composed. To obtain relatively simple analytical relations in the calculations, the hypothesis of a power-law dependence of hydrostatic pressure on mixture density, accepted in the framework of the Johansen model, was used. In order to take into account changes in the mechanical characteristics of the mixture (angle of internal friction, coefficient of external friction, transverse strain coefficient) while compacting, we approximated the known experimental dependencies of the corresponding characteristics on the density. The inter-particle cohesion parameter was taken to be proportional to the hydrostatic pressure. The model allows calculating the gap between the rolls surfaces for a given initial bulk density and the required flake density. With the known gap value, the distribution of the axial average stresses in the powder mixture, the normal and shear stresses on the rolls’ surfaces are determined. The results of the calculations of the rolls surface gap and the normal roll pressure diagram are compared with the experimental data given in the literature for the urea compacting process.Разработана математическая модель прессования минерального удобрения на валковом прессе. Данная модель основана на переходе к усредненным по площади поперечного сечения потока порошковой смеси значениям компонент тензора напряжений. Для определения этих напряжений составляются уравнения равновесия элементарного слоя, выделяемого в смеси двумя плоскостями, перпендикулярными к направлению потока. Для обеспечения возможности получения относительно простых аналитических соотношений при расчетах использована принятая в рамках модели Йохансена гипотеза о степенной зависимости гидростатического давления от плотности смеси. Для учета изменения механических характеристик смеси (угла внутреннего трения, коэффициента внешнего трения, коэффициента поперечной деформации) в процессе прессования производилась аппроксимация известных экспериментальных зависимостей соответствующих характеристик от плотности. Параметр межчастичного сцепления принимался пропорциональным гидростатическому давлению. Модель позволяет вычислить значение зазора между поверхностями валов при заданных значениях исходной насыпной плотности смеси и требуемой плотности плитки. При известном значении зазора устанавливаются распределения осевых усредненных напряжений в порошковой смеси, нормального и сдвигового напряжений на поверхности валов. Результаты расчетов зазора между поверхностями валов и эпюры нормального давления на вал сопоставлены с приведенными в литературных источниках экспериментальными данными для процесса прессования мочевины

Моделирование радиальных колебаний подпружиненного валка вальц-пресса

Carried out simulation of oscillations of a spring-loaded roll in a roll compactor when interacting the powder being compacted with the rolls. Considering the separation of the feed and compaction areas in the contact area of the roll with the material being compacted, we obtain the dependence of the force acting on the roll on the gap size between the rolls. It is shown that this dependence is non-linear, and it can be described with a sufficiently high accuracy degree by an exponential function with a negative exponent in the working range. The given numerical solution of the equation of free nonlinear oscillations of the spring-loaded roll has shown that considering the deformation of the material being compacted leads to a reduction of the natural frequency of the system by 20–25 % compared to the case, where the pressure force of the powder on the roll is assumed to be independent of the gap size. The nonlinearity of the dependence of the pressure force on the gap also leads to the increase by 10 % in the calculated values of the maximum displacements. The developed approach to the calculation of oscillations of the spring-loaded roll in the roll compactor enables to take into account the peculiarities of deformation of the powder being compacted during its interaction with the rolls. In addition, it allows estimating the frequencies and oscillation amplitudes and setting the optimum range of spring rate values, at which the occurrence of resonance in the machine is not possible.Выполнено моделирование колебаний подпружиненного валка вальц-пресса при взаимодействии прессуемого порошка с валками. С учетом выделения в области контакта валка с прессуемым материалом зон подачи и прессования, получена зависимость силы, действующей на валок, от величины зазора между валками. Показано, что эта зависимость имеет нелинейный характер, причем в рабочем диапазоне с достаточно высокой степенью точности может быть описана степенной функцией с отрицательным показателем степени. Приведено численное решение уравнения свободных нелинейных колебаний подпружиненного валка, которое продемонстрировало, что учет деформирования сжимаемого материала приводит к снижению частот собственных колебаний системы на 20–25 % по сравнению со случаем, при котором сила давления порошка на валок принимается не зависящей от величины зазора. Нелинейность зависимости силы давления от зазора приводит также к увеличению на 10 % расчетных значений максимальных смещений. Разработанный подход к расчету колебаний подрессоренного валка вальц-пресса позволяет учесть особенности деформирования прессуемого порошка при его взаимодействии с валками, а также позволяет, наряду с оценкой частот и амплитуд колебаний, установить оптимальный диапазон значений коэффициента жесткости пружины, при котором появление резонанса в машине будет невозможно

Er-doped Oxidized Porous Silicon Waveguides

The present work reports Er-doped channel oxidized porous silicon waveguides (OPSWG) formed from n+-type Si by the two-step anodisation process. Er has been introduced into porous silicon before oxidation by a cathodic treatment in 0.1 M Er (NO3)3 aqueous solution. A correlation between Er concentration and refractive index profiles has shown dominant core doping with Er relative to cladding regions. Reported Er concentration of 0.8 at.% in the OPSWG is large enough to attain the amplification effect

СУТОЧНЫЕ ВАРИАЦИИ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ МОТИВАЦИИ

Diurnal dynamics of necessity of socialized emotional experiences (SEE) was researched with the help of the B.I. Dodonov diagnostic checklist. The data for 514 women and 252 men were collecting from 1994 to 2013 years. The mean age of responders was 29,4 years. Significant and reliable changes in SEE markers were found in relation to diurnal variations and it was different for men and women. Analysis of findings for the periods of 1994-2006 and 2009-2013 confirmed the diurnal variations of SEE. Furthermore, SEE markers and their dynamics can undergo significant changes due to long-term variations. The adaptive function of motivation displays in it as a result of variability natural and social environment.С помощью тест-анкеты Б.И. Додонова исследовалась суточная динамика потребностей в социализированных эмоциональных переживаниях(СЭП). За период 1994 - 2013 гг. получены данные для 514 женщин и 252 мужчин. Средний возраст анкетированных лиц составил 29,4 года. Обнаружены значимые и достоверные изменения показателей СЭП в связи со временем суток, отличающиеся для мужчин и женщин. Анализ полученных данных для периодов 1994 - 2006 и 2009 - 2013 гг. подтвердил вывод о существовании суточных вариаций СЭП. При этом показатели СЭП и их динамика могут претерпевать существенные изменения из-за многолетних вариаций. В этом проявляется адаптационная функция мотивации в связи с изменчивостью условий природной и социальной среды обитания

Birefringence of nanoporous alumina: Dependence on structure parameters

We report on experimental and theoretical investigations of the birefringence of free-standing nanoporous anodic alumina membranes in the optical range. The value of birefringence is analyzed for the samples with different porosities by measuring polarization dependent transmission spectra at different angles of incidence. The experimental data are compared to the results of birefringence simulations in accordance with the modified Bruggeman effective-medium approximation. It is both experimentally and theoretically shown that the birefringence value increases with porosity increases in the low porosity region. The porous alumina samples under investigation possess the greatest value of birefringence (0.062) up to the present

Macroscale alignment of CdSe/CdS nanorods by porous anodic alumina templates

Centimeter-scale assemblies of highly ordered CdSe/CdS core-shell nanorods have been successfully fabricated by infiltration of the nanorods into the pores of a transparent porous anodic alumina membrane. The high degree of the nanorod ordering is proved by the demonstration of both highly polarized PL and absorption of the aligned nanorods. The measured PL linear polarization degree is 53%. We have found that both the elongated CdS shell and the nearly spherical CdSe core exhibit a strong dependence of absorption on polarization angle with respect to the nanorod axis. We conclude that both CdS shell and CdSe core absorb more efficiently light with polarization along the axis of the nanorod