Impact of grid spacing, convective parameterization and cloud microphysics in ICON simulations of a warm conveyor belt

Warm conveyor belts are important features of extratropical cyclones and are characterized by active diabatic processes. Previous studies reported that simulations of extratropical cyclones can be strongly impacted by the horizontal grid spacing. Here, we study to what extent and in which manner simulations of warm conveyor belts are impacted by the grid spacing. To this end, we investigate the warm conveyor belt (WCB) of the North Atlantic cyclone Vladiana that occurred around 23 September 2016 and was observed as part of the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment. We analyze a total of 18 limited-area simulations with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model run over the North Atlantic that cover grid spacings from 80 to 2.5 km, including those of current coarse-resolution global climate models with parameterized convection, as well as those of future storm-resolving climate models with explicit convection. The simulations also test the sensitivity with respect to the representation of convection and cloud microphysics. As the grid spacing is decreased, the number of WCB trajectories increases systematically, WCB trajectories ascend faster and higher, and a new class of anticyclonic trajectories emerges that is absent at 80 km. We also diagnose the impact of grid spacing on the ascent velocity and vorticity of WCB air parcels and the diabatic heating that these parcels experience. Ascent velocity increases at all pressure levels by a factor of 3 between the 80 and 2.5 km simulations, and vorticity increases by a factor of 2 in the lower and middle troposphere. We find a corresponding increase in diabatic heating as the grid spacing is decreased, arising mainly from cloud-associated phase changes in water. The treatment of convection has a much stronger impact than the treatment of cloud microphysics. When convection is resolved for grid spacings of 10, 5 and 2.5 km, the above changes to the WCB are amplified but become largely independent of the grid spacing. We find no clear connection across the different grid spacings between the strength of diabatic heating within the WCB and the deepening of cyclone Vladiana measured by its central pressure. An analysis of the pressure tendency equation shows that this is because diabatic heating plays a minor role in the deepening of Vladiana, which is dominated by temperature advection.</p

Ice microphysical processes exert a strong control on the simulated radiative energy budget in the tropics

Simulations of the global climate system at storm-resolving resolutions of 2 km are now becoming feasible and show promising realism in clouds and precipitation. However, shortcomings in their representation of microscale processes, like the interaction of cloud droplets and ice crystals with radiation, can still restrict their utility. Here, we illustrate how changes to the ice microphysics scheme dramatically alter both the vertical profile of cloud-radiative heating and top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation (terrestrial infrared cooling) in storm-resolving simulations over the Asian monsoon region. Poorly-constrained parameters in the ice nucleation scheme, overactive conversion of ice to snow, and inconsistent treatment of ice crystal effective radius between microphysics and radiation alter cloud-radiative heating by a factor of four and domain-mean infrared cooling by 30 W m−2. Vertical resolution, on the other hand, has a very limited impact. Even in state-of-the-art models then, uncertainties in microscale cloud properties exert a strong control on the radiative budget that propagates to both atmospheric circulation and regional climate. These uncertainties need to be reduced to realize the full potential of storm-resolving models

Tropical cloud-radiative changes contribute to robust climate change-induced jet exit strengthening over Europe during boreal winter

The North Atlantic jet stream is projected to extend eastward towards Europe in boreal winter in response to climate change. We show that this response is robust across a hierarchy of climate models and climate change scenarios. We further show that cloud-radiative changes contribute robustly to the eastward extension of the jet stream in three atmosphere models, but lead to model uncertainties in the jet stream response over the North Atlantic. The magnitude of the cloud contribution depends on the model, consistent with differences in the magnitude of changes in upper-tropospheric cloud-radiative heating. We further study the role of regional cloud changes in one of the three atmosphere models, i.e. the ICON model. Tropical cloud-radiative changes dominate the cloud impact on the eastward extension of the jet stream in ICON. Cloud-radiative changes over the Indian Ocean, western tropical Pacific, and eastern tropical Pacific contribute to this response, while tropical Atlantic cloud changes have a minor impact. Our results highlight the importance of upper-tropospheric tropical clouds for the regional circulation response to climate change over the North Atlantic-European region and uncertainty therein

Cloud‐Radiative Impact on the Regional Responses of the Midlatitude Jet Streams and Storm Tracks to Global Warming

Previous work demonstrated the strong radiative coupling between clouds and the mid‐latitude circulation. Here, we investigate the impact of cloud‐radiative changes on the global warming response of the mid‐latitude jet streams and storm tracks in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Southern Hemisphere. To this end, we use the ICON global atmosphere model in present‐day setup and with the cloud‐locking method. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are prescribed to isolate the circulation response to atmospheric cloud‐radiative heating. In the annual mean, cloud‐radiative changes contribute one‐ to two‐thirds to the poleward jet shift in all three ocean basins, and support the jet strengthening in the North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere. Cloud‐radiative changes also impact the storm track, but the impact is more diverse across the three ocean basins. The cloud‐radiative impact on the North Atlantic and North Pacific jets varies little from season to season in absolute terms, whereas its relative importance changes over the course of the year. In the Southern Hemisphere, cloud‐radiative changes strengthen the jet in all seasons, whereas their impact on the jet shift is limited to austral summer and fall. The cloud‐radiative impact is largely zonally‐symmetric and independent of whether global warming is mimicked by a uniform 4 K or spatially‐varying SST increase. Our results emphasize the importance of cloud‐radiative changes for the response of the mid‐latitude circulation to global warming, indicating that clouds can contribute to uncertainty in model projections of future circulations

A climate network perspective on the intertropical convergence zone

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is an important component of the tropical rain belt. Climate models continue to struggle to adequately represent the ITCZ and differ substantially in its simulated response to climate change. Here we employ complex network approaches, which extract spatiotemporal variability patterns from climate data, to better understand differences in the dynamics of the ITCZ in state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs). For this purpose, we study simulations with 14 GCMs in an idealized slab-ocean aquaplanet setup from TRACMIP – the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project. We construct network representations based on the spatial correlation patterns of monthly surface temperature anomalies and study the zonal-mean patterns of different topological and spatial network characteristics. Specifically, we cluster the GCMs by means of the distributions of their zonal network measures utilizing hierarchical clustering. We find that in the control simulation, the distributions of the zonal network measures are able to pick up model differences in the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) contrast, the ITCZ position, and the strength of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Although we do not find evidence for consistent modifications in the network structure tracing the response of the ITCZ to global warming in the considered model ensemble, our analysis demonstrates that coherent variations of the global SST field are linked to ITCZ dynamics. This suggests that climate networks can provide a new perspective on ITCZ dynamics and model differences therein

TriCCo v1.1.0 – a cubulation-based method for computing connected components on triangular grids

We present a new method to identify connected components on triangular grids used in atmosphere and climate models to discretize the horizontal dimension. In contrast to structured latitude–longitude grids, triangular grids are unstructured and the neighbors of a grid cell do not simply follow from the grid cell index. This complicates the identification of connected components compared to structured grids. Here, we show that this complication can be addressed by involving the mathematical tool of cubulation, which allows one to map the 2-D cells of the triangular grid onto the vertices of the 3-D cells of a cubical grid. Because the latter is structured, connected components can be readily identified by previously developed software packages for cubical grids. Computing the cubulation can be expensive, but, importantly, needs to be done only once for a given grid. We implement our method in a Python package that we name TriCCo and make available via pypi, gitlab, and zenodo. We document the package and demonstrate its application using simulation output from the ICON atmosphere model. Finally, we characterize its computational performance and compare it to graph-based identifications of connected components using breadth-first search. The latter shows that TriCCo is ready for triangular grids with up to 500 000 cells, but that its speed and memory requirement should be improved for its application to larger grids