Onzekerheid over de baten van de Betuwelijn

Model estimates of the pay-off of the Betuwe railway have played an important role for politicians to decide to build this railway. This has already been discussed extensively, especially with respect to the macro-economic effects of this investment. A deeper analysis shows that these effects are very difficult to assess. The NIJFER institute for example calculated a long term profit of 52.1 biljon Dutch guilders, but our analysis of this model shows that the profit lays with 50 reliability between 15 and 30 biljon Dutch guilders. Our conclusion is that this political investment decision is not sufficiently supported by the expected macro-economic pay-off. A prudent use of quantitative research requires that the involved uncertainties in the model outcomes is properly taken into account

Onzekerheid over de baten van de Betuwelijn

Model estimates of the pay-off of the Betuwe railway have played an important role for politicians to decide to build this railway. This has already been discussed extensively, especially with respect to the macro-economic effects of this investment. A deeper analysis shows that these effects are very difficult to assess. The NIJFER institute for example calculated a long term profit of 52.1 biljon Dutch guilders, but our analysis of this model shows that the profitlays with 50 reliability between 15 and 30 biljon Dutch guilders. Our conclusion is that this political investment decision is not sufficiently supported by the expected macro-economic pay-off. A prudent use of quantitative research requires that the involved uncertainties in the model outcomes is properly taken into account.investment;cross-country analysis;regression;infrastructure;policy design

Improving hand hygiene compliance in child daycare centres: a randomized controlled trial

Gastrointestinal and respiratory infections in children attending daycare centres (DCCs) are common and compliance with hand hygiene (HH) guidelines to prevent infections is generally low. An intervention was developed to increase HH compliance and reduce infections in DCCs. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the effectiveness of this intervention on HH compliance. The intervention was evaluated in a two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial in 71 DCCs in The Netherlands. Thirty-six DCCs received the intervention including: (1) HH products; (2) training about HH guidelines; (3) two team training sessions aimed at goal setting and formulating HH improvement activities; and (4) reminders and cues for action (posters/ stickers). Intervention DCCs were compared to 35 control DCCs that continued usual practice. HH compliance of caregivers and children was observed at baseline and at 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up. Using multilevel logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained for the intervention effect. Of 795 caregivers, 5042 HH opportunities for caregivers and 5606 opportunities for supervising children’s HH were observed. At 1 month follow-up caregivers’ compliance in intervention DCCs was 66% vs. 43% in control DCCs (OR 6·33, 95% CI 3·71–10·80), and at 6 months 59% vs. 44% (OR 4·13, 95% CI 2·33–7·32). No effect of the intervention was found on supervising children’s HH (36% vs. 32%; OR 0·64, 95% CI 0·18–2·33). In conclusion, HH compliance of caregivers increased due to the intervention, therefore dissemination of the intervention can be considered

Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus

Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A (H3N2) has evolved extensively in genotype and antigenic phenotype. Antigenic evolution occurs in the context of a two-dimensional 'antigenic map', while genetic evolution shows a characteristic ladder-like genealogical tree. Here, we use a large-scale individual-based model to show that evolution in a Euclidean antigenic space provides a remarkable correspondence between model behavior and the epidemiological, antigenic, genealogical and geographic patterns observed in influenza virus. We find that evolution away from existing human immunity results in rapid population turnover in the influenza virus and that this population turnover occurs primarily along a single antigenic axis. Thus, selective dynamics induce a canalized evolutionary trajectory, in which the evolutionary fate of the influenza population is surprisingly repeatable and hence, in theory, predictable.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures, 10 supporting figure

Reduction of health-related risks among female commercial sex workers: learning from their life and working experiences.

We performed this study to determine both positive and negative impacts on the health of sex workers working on the street. We conducted this study using key informant and focus group interviews in bars and streets in Mozambique. The interviewed sex workers were aware about the risks and protection against sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and they consistently used condoms. Most suffered from harmful behavior, including violence and assault by both customers and other commercial sex workers. We found that sex workers\u27 own skills and knowledge acquired through experience potentially could be developed into life skills that could save and protect their lives

Improving hand hygiene compliance in nursing homes: Protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial (HANDSOME Study)

Background: Hand hygiene compliance is considered the most (cost-)effective measure for preventing health care-associated infections. While hand hygiene interventions have frequently been implemented and assessed in hospitals, there is limited knowledge about hand hygiene compliance in other health care settings and which interventions and implementation methods are effective. Objective: This study aims to evaluate the effect of a multimodal intervention to increase hand hygiene compliance of nurses in nursing homes through a cluster randomized controlled trial (HANDSOME study). Methods: Nursing homes were randomly allocated to 1 of 3 trial arms: Receiving the intervention at a predetermined date, receiving the identical intervention after an infectious disease outbreak, or serving as a control arm. Hand hygiene was evaluated in nursing homes by direct observation at 4 timepoints. We documented compliance with the World Health Organization's 5 moments of hand hygiene, specifically before touching a patient, before a clean/aseptic procedure, after body fluid exposure risk, after touching a patient, and after touching patient surroundings. The primary outcome is hand hygiene compliance of the nurses to the standards of the World Health Organization. The secondary outcome is infectious disease incidence among residents. Infectious disease incidence was documented by a staff member at each nursing home unit. Outcomes will be compared with the presence of norovirus, rhinovirus, and Escherichia coli on surfaces in the nursing homes, as measured using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Results: The study was funded in September 2015. Data collection started in October 2016 and was completed in October 2017. Data analysis will be completed in 2020. Conclusions: HANDSOME studies the effectiveness of a hand hygiene intervention specifically for the nursing hom

Hand hygiene and glove use in nursing homes before and after an intervention

We investigated whether an intervention to improve hand hygiene compliance in nursing homes changed glove use. Hand hygiene compliance increased, but substitution of hand hygiene with gloves did not decrease. We observed a reduction of inappropriately unchanged gloves after exposure to body fluids. Clinical trials identifier: Netherlands Trial Register, trial NL6049 (NTR6188): Https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/6049

A hand hygiene intervention to reduce infections in child daycare: A randomized controlled trial

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A hand hygiene intervention to decrease infections among children attending day care centers: Design of a cluster randomized controlled trial

Background: Day care center attendance has been recognized as a risk factor for acquiring gastrointestinal and respiratory infections, which can be prevented with adequate hand hygiene (HH). Based on previous studies on environmental and sociocognitive determinants of caregivers' compliance with HH guidelines in day care centers (DCCs), an intervention has been developed aiming to improve caregivers' and children's HH compliance and decrease infections among children attending DCCs. The aim of this paper is to describe the design of a cluster randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of this intervention.Methods/design: The intervention will be evaluated in a two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial among 71 DCCs in the Netherlands. In total, 36 DCCs will receive the intervention consisting of four components: 1) HH products (dispensers and refills for paper towels, soap, alcohol-based hand sanitizer, and hand cream); 2) training to educate about the Dutch national HH guidelines; 3) two team training sessions aimed at goal setting and formulating specific HH improvement activities; and 4) reminders and cues to action (posters/stickers). Intervention DCCs will be compared to 35 control DCCs continuing usual practice. The primary outcome measure will be observed HH compliance of caregivers and children, measured at baseline and one, three, and six months after start of the intervention. The secondary outcome measure will be the incidence of gastrointestinal and respiratory infections in 600 children attending DCCs, monitored over six months by parents using a calendar to mark th