Validation of WRF-Chem Model and CAMS Performance in Estimating Near-Surface Atmospheric CO2 Mixing Ratio in the Area of Saint Petersburg (Russia)

Nowadays, different approaches for CO2 anthropogenic emission estimation are applied to control agreements on greenhouse gas reduction. Some methods are based on the inverse modelling of emissions using various measurements and the results of numerical chemistry transport models (CTMs). Since the accuracy and precision of CTMs largely determine errors in the approaches for emission estimation, it is crucial to validate the performance of such models through observations. In the current study, the near-surface CO2 mixing ratio simulated by the CTM Weather Research and Forecasting—Chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a high spatial resolution (3 km) using three different sets of CO2 fluxes (anthropogenic + biogenic fluxes, time-varying and constant anthropogenic emissions) and from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) datasets have been validated using in situ observations near the Saint Petersburg megacity (Russia) in March and April 2019. It was found that CAMS reanalysis data with a low spatial resolution (1.9° × 3.8°) can match the observations better than CAMS analysis data with a high resolution (0.15° × 0.15°). The CAMS analysis significantly overestimates the observed near-surface CO2 mixing ratio in Peterhof in March and April 2019 (by more than 10 ppm). The best match for the CAMS reanalysis and observations was observed in March, when the wind was predominantly opposite to the Saint Petersburg urbanized area. In contrast, the CAMS analysis fits the observed trend of the mixing ratio variation in April better than the reanalysis with the wind directions from the Saint Petersburg urban zone. Generally, the WRF-Chem predicts the observed temporal variations in the near-surface CO2 reasonably well (mean bias ≈ (−0.3) − (−0.9) ppm, RMSD ≈ 8.7 ppm, correlation coefficient ≈ 0.61 ± 0.04). The WRF-Chem data where anthropogenic and biogenic fluxes were used match the observations a bit better than the WRF-Chem data without biogenic fluxes. The diurnal time variation in the anthropogenic emissions influenced the WRF-Chem data insignificantly. However, in general, the data of all three WRF-Chem model runs give almost the same CO2 temporal variation in Peterhof in March and April 2019. This could be related to the late start of the growing season, which influences biogenic CO2 fluxes, inaccuracies in the estimation of the biogenic fluxes, and the simplified time variation pattern of the CO2 anthropogenic emissions

Validation of WRF-Chem Model and CAMS Performance in Estimating Near-Surface Atmospheric CO2 Mixing Ratio in the Area of Saint Petersburg (Russia)

Nowadays, different approaches for CO2 anthropogenic emission estimation are applied to control agreements on greenhouse gas reduction. Some methods are based on the inverse modelling of emissions using various measurements and the results of numerical chemistry transport models (CTMs). Since the accuracy and precision of CTMs largely determine errors in the approaches for emission estimation, it is crucial to validate the performance of such models through observations. In the current study, the near-surface CO2 mixing ratio simulated by the CTM Weather Research and Forecasting—Chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a high spatial resolution (3 km) using three different sets of CO2 fluxes (anthropogenic + biogenic fluxes, time-varying and constant anthropogenic emissions) and from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) datasets have been validated using in situ observations near the Saint Petersburg megacity (Russia) in March and April 2019. It was found that CAMS reanalysis data with a low spatial resolution (1.9° × 3.8°) can match the observations better than CAMS analysis data with a high resolution (0.15° × 0.15°). The CAMS analysis significantly overestimates the observed near-surface CO2 mixing ratio in Peterhof in March and April 2019 (by more than 10 ppm). The best match for the CAMS reanalysis and observations was observed in March, when the wind was predominantly opposite to the Saint Petersburg urbanized area. In contrast, the CAMS analysis fits the observed trend of the mixing ratio variation in April better than the reanalysis with the wind directions from the Saint Petersburg urban zone. Generally, the WRF-Chem predicts the observed temporal variations in the near-surface CO2 reasonably well (mean bias ≈ (−0.3) − (−0.9) ppm, RMSD ≈ 8.7 ppm, correlation coefficient ≈ 0.61 ± 0.04). The WRF-Chem data where anthropogenic and biogenic fluxes were used match the observations a bit better than the WRF-Chem data without biogenic fluxes. The diurnal time variation in the anthropogenic emissions influenced the WRF-Chem data insignificantly. However, in general, the data of all three WRF-Chem model runs give almost the same CO2 temporal variation in Peterhof in March and April 2019. This could be related to the late start of the growing season, which influences biogenic CO2 fluxes, inaccuracies in the estimation of the biogenic fluxes, and the simplified time variation pattern of the CO2 anthropogenic emissions

Case study of ozone anomalies over northern Russia in the 2015/2016 winter: measurements and numerical modelling

Episodes of extremely low ozone columns were observed over the territory of Russia in the Arctic winter of 2015/2016 and the beginning of spring 2016. We compare total ozone columns (TOCs) from different remote sensing techniques (satellite and ground-based observations) with results of numerical modelling over the territory of the Urals and Siberia for this period. We demonstrate that the provided monitoring systems (including the new Russian Infrared Fourier Spectrometer IKFS-2) and modern three-dimensional atmospheric models can capture the observed TOC anomalies. However, the results of observations and modelling show differences of up to 20&thinsp;%–30&thinsp;% in TOC measurements. Analysis of the role of chemical and dynamical processes demonstrates that the observed short-term TOC variability is not a result of local photochemical loss initiated by heterogeneous halogen activation on particles of polar stratospheric clouds that formed under low temperatures in the mid-winter.</p

Measurements and Modelling of Total Ozone Columns near St. Petersburg, Russia

The observed ozone layer depletion is influenced by continuous anthropogenic activity. This fact enforced the regular ozone monitoring globally. Information on spatial-temporal variations in total ozone columns (TOCs) derived by various observational methods and models can differ significantly due to measurement and modelling errors, differences in ozone retrieval algorithms, etc. Therefore, TOC data derived by different means should be validated regularly. In the current study, we compare TOC variations observed by ground-based (Bruker IFS 125 HR, Dobson, and M-124) and satellite (OMI, TROPOMI, and IKFS-2) instruments and simulated by models (ERA5 and EAC4 re-analysis, EMAC and INM RAS—RSHU models) near St. Petersburg (Russia) between 2009 and 2020. We demonstrate that TOC variations near St. Petersburg measured by different methods are in good agreement (with correlation coefficients of 0.95–0.99). Mean differences (MDs) and standard deviations of differences (SDDs) with respect to Dobson measurements constitute 0.0–3.9% and 2.3–3.7%, respectively, which is close to the actual requirements of the quality of TOC measurements. The largest bias is observed for Bruker 125 HR (3.9%) and IKFS-2 (−2.4%) measurements, whereas M-124 filter ozonometer shows no bias. The largest SDDs are observed for satellite measurements (3.3–3.7%), the smallest—for ground-based data (2.3–2.8%). The differences between simulated and Dobson data vary significantly. ERA5 and EAC4 re-analysis data show slight negative bias (0.1–0.2%) with SDDs of 3.7–3.9%. EMAC model overestimates Dobson TOCs by 4.5% with 4.5% SDDs, whereas INM RAS-RSHU model underestimates Dobson by 1.4% with 8.6% SDDs. All datasets demonstrate the pronounced TOC seasonal cycle with the maximum in spring and minimum in autumn. Finally, for 2004–2021 period, we derived a significant positive TOC trend near St. Petersburg (~0.4 ± 0.1 DU per year) from all datasets considered

The CO2_{2} integral emission by the megacity of St Petersburg as quantified from ground-based FTIR measurements combined with dispersion modelling

The anthropogenic impact is a major factor of climate change, which is highest in industrial regions and modern megacities. Megacities are a significant source of emissions of various substances into the atmosphere, including CO$_{2}$ which is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In 2019 and 2020, the mobile experiment EMME (Emission Monitoring Mobile Experiment) was carried out on the territory of St Petersburg which is the second-largest industrial city in Russia with a population of more than 5 million people. In 2020, several measurement data sets were obtained during the lockdown period caused by the COVID-19 (COronaVIrus Disease of 2019) pandemic. One of the goals of EMME was to evaluate the CO$_{2}$ emission from the St Petersburg agglomeration. Previously, the CO$_{2}$ area flux has been obtained from the data of the EMME-2019 experiment using the mass balance approach. The value of the CO$_{2}$ area flux for St Petersburg has been estimated as being 89±28 kt km$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$, which is 3 times higher than the corresponding value reported in the official municipal inventory. The present study is focused on the derivation of the integral CO$_{2}$ emission from St Petersburg by coupling the results of the EMME observational campaigns of 2019 and 2020 and the HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectories) model. The ODIAC (Open-Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO$_{2}$) database is used as the source of the a priori information on the CO$_{2}$ emissions for the territory of St Petersburg. The most important finding of the present study, based on the analysis of two observational campaigns, is a significantly higher CO$_{2}$ emission from the megacity of St Petersburg compared to the data of municipal inventory, i.e. ∼75800±5400 kt yr$^{-1}$ for 2019 and ∼68400±7100 kt yr$^{-1}$ for 2020 versus ∼30 000 kt yr$^{-1}$ reported by official inventory. The comparison of the CO$_{2}$ emissions obtained during the COVID-19 lockdown period in 2020 to the results obtained during the same period of 2019 demonstrated the decrease in emissions of 10 % or 7400 kt yr$^{-1}$

Emission Monitoring Mobile Experiment (EMME): An overview and first results of the St. Petersburg megacity campaign 2019

Global climate change is one of the most important scientific, societal and economic contemporary challenges. Fundamental understanding of the major processes driving climate change is the key problem which is to be solved not only on a global but also on a regional scale. The accuracy of regional climate modelling depends on a number of factors. One of these factors is the adequate and comprehensive information on the anthropogenic impact which is highest in industrial regions and areas with dense population – modern megacities. Megacities are not only “heat islands”, but also significant sources of emissions of various substances into the atmosphere, including greenhouse and reactive gases. In 2019, the mobile experiment EMME (Emission Monitoring Mobile Experiment) was conducted within the St. Petersburg agglomeration (Russia) aiming to estimate the emission intensity of greenhouse (CO$_{2}$, CH$_{4}$) nd reactive (CO, NO$_{x}$) gases for St. Petersburg, which is the largest northern megacity. St. Petersburg State University (Russia), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Germany) and the University of Bremen (Germany) jointly ran this experiment. The core instruments of the campaign were two portable Bruker EM27/SUN Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers which were used for ground-based remote sensing measurements of the total column amount of CO$_{2}$, CH$_{4}$ and CO at upwind and downwind locations on opposite sides of the city. The NO$_{2}$ tropospheric column amount was observed along a circular highway around the city by continuous mobile measurements of scattered solar visible radiation with an OceanOptics HR4000 spectrometer using the differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) technique. Simultaneously, air samples were collected in air bags for subsequent laboratory analysis. The air samples were taken at the locations of FTIR observations at the ground level and also at altitudes of about 100 m when air bags were lifted by a kite (in case of suitable landscape and favourable wind conditions). The entire campaign consisted of 11 mostly cloudless days of measurements in March–April 2019. Planning of measurements for each day included the determination of optimal location for FTIR spectrometers based on weather forecasts, combined with the numerical modelling of the pollution transport in the megacity area. The real-time corrections of the FTIR operation sites were performed depending on the actual evolution of the megacity NO$_{x}$ plume as detected by the mobile DOAS observations. The estimates of the St. Petersburg emission intensities for the considered greenhouse and reactive gases were obtained by coupling a box model and the results of the EMME observational campaign using the mass balance approach. The CO$_{2}$ emission flux for St. Petersburg as an area source was estimated to be 89 ± 28 ktkm$^{-2}$ yr $^{-2}$ , which is 2 times higher than the corresponding value in the EDGAR database. The experiment revealed the CH$_{4}$ emission flux of 135 ± 68 tkm $^{-2}$ yr $^{-1}$, which is about 1 order of magnitude greater than the value reported by the official inventories of St. Petersburg emissions (∼ 25 tkm$^{-2}$ yr $^{-1}$ or 2017). At the same time, for the urban territory of St. Petersburg, both the EMME experiment and the official inventories for 2017 give similar results for the CO anthropogenic flux (251 ± 104 tkm $^{-2}$ yr $^{-1}$ s. 410 tkm $^{-2}$ yr $^{-1}$) nd for the NO$_{x}$ anthropogenic flux (66 ± 28 tkm$^{-2}$ yr $^{-1}$ vs. 69 tkm $^{-2}$ yr $^{-1}$)

Six Years of IKFS-2 Global Ozone Total Column Measurements

Atmospheric ozone plays an important role in the biosphere’s absorbing of dangerous solar UV radiation and its contributions to the Earth’s climate. Nowadays, ozone variations are widely monitored by different local and remote sensing methods. Satellite methods can provide data on the global distribution of ozone and its anomalies. In contrast to measurement techniques based on solar radiation measurements, Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) satellite measurements of thermal radiation provide information, regardless of solar illumination. The global distribution of total ozone columns (TOCs) measured by the IKFS-2 spectrometer aboard the “Meteor M N2” satellite for the period of 2015 to 2020 is presented. The retrieval algorithm uses the artificial neural network (ANN) based on measurements of TOCs by the Aura OMI instrument and the method of principal components for representing IKFS-2 spectral measurements. Latitudinal and seasonal dependencies on the ANN training errors are analyzed and considered as a first approximation of the TOC measurement errors. The TOCs derived by the IKFS-2 instrument are compared to independent ground-based and satellite data. The average differences between the IKFS-2 data and the independent TOC measurements are up to 2% (IKFS-2 usually slightly underestimates the other data), and the standard deviations of differences (SDDs) vary from 2 to 4%. At the same time, both the analysis of the ANN approximation errors of the OMI data and the comparison of the IKFS-2 results with independent data demonstrate an increase in discrepancies towards the poles. In the spring–winter period, SDDs reach 8% in the Southern and 6% in the Northern Hemisphere. The technique presented can be used to process the IKFS-2 spectral data, and as a result, it can provide global information on the TOCs in the period of 2015–2020, regardless of the solar illumination and the presence of clouds

Measurements and Modelling of Total Ozone Columns near St. Petersburg, Russia

The observed ozone layer depletion is influenced by continuous anthropogenic activity. This fact enforced the regular ozone monitoring globally. Information on spatial-temporal variations in total ozone columns (TOCs) derived by various observational methods and models can differ significantly due to measurement and modelling errors, differences in ozone retrieval algorithms, etc. Therefore, TOC data derived by different means should be validated regularly. In the current study, we compare TOC variations observed by ground-based (Bruker IFS 125 HR, Dobson, and M-124) and satellite (OMI, TROPOMI, and IKFS-2) instruments and simulated by models (ERA5 and EAC4 re-analysis, EMAC and INM RAS-RSHU models) near St. Petersburg (Russia) between 2009 and 2020. We demonstrate that TOC variations near St. Petersburg measured by different methods are in good agreement (with correlation coefficients of 0.95-0.99). Mean differences (MDs) and standard deviations of differences (SDDs) with respect to Dobson measurements constitute 0.0-3.9% and 2.3-3.7%, respectively, which is close to the actual requirements of the quality of TOC measurements. The largest bias is observed for Bruker 125 HR (3.9%) and IKFS-2 (-2.4%) measurements, whereas M-124 filter ozonometer shows no bias. The largest SDDs are observed for satellite measurements (3.3-3.7%), the smallest-for ground-based data (2.3-2.8%). The differences between simulated and Dobson data vary significantly. ERA5 and EAC4 re-analysis data show slight negative bias (0.1-0.2%) with SDDs of 3.7-3.9%. EMAC model overestimates Dobson TOCs by 4.5% with 4.5% SDDs, whereas INM RAS-RSHU model underestimates Dobson by 1.4% with 8.6% SDDs. All datasets demonstrate the pronounced TOC seasonal cycle with the maximum in spring and minimum in autumn. Finally, for 2004-2021 period, we derived a significant positive TOC trend near St. Petersburg (similar to 0.4 +/- 0.1 DU per year) from all datasets considered.ISSN:2072-429