Competing auctions: finite markets and convergence

The literature on competing auctions offers a model where sellers compete for buyers by setting reserve prices freely. An important outstanding conjecture (e.g. Peters and Severinov (1997)) is that the sellers post prices close to their marginal costs when the market becomes large. This conjecture is confirmed in this paper. More precisely, we show that if all sellers have zero costs, then the equilibrium reserve price converges to 0 in distribution. I also show that if there is a high enough lower bound on the buyers’ valuations, then there is a symmetric pure strategy equilibrium. In this equilibrium, if the number of buyers (sellers) increases, then the equilibrium reserve price increases (decreases) and the reserve price is decreasing in the size of the market.Competing auctions, finite markets, convergence

Spectral measures of factor of i.i.d. processes on vertex-transitive graphs

We prove that a measure on $[-d, d]$ is the spectral measure of a factor of i.i.d. process on a vertex-transitive infinite graph if and only if it is absolutely continuous with respect to the spectral measure of the graph. Moreover, we show that the set of spectral measures of factor of i.i.d. processes and that of $\bar d_2$-limits of factor of i.i.d. processes are the same.Comment: 26 pages; proof of Proposition 9 shortene

Uniform point variance bounds in classical beta ensembles

In this paper, we give bounds on the variance of the number of points of the circular and the Gaussian $\beta$ ensemble in arcs of the unit circle or intervals of the real line. These bounds are logarithmic with respect to the renormalized length of these sets, which is expected to be optimal up to a multiplicative constant depending only on $\beta$

Limits of spiked random matrices II

The top eigenvalues of rank $r$ spiked real Wishart matrices and additively perturbed Gaussian orthogonal ensembles are known to exhibit a phase transition in the large size limit. We show that they have limiting distributions for near-critical perturbations, fully resolving the conjecture of Baik, Ben Arous and P\'{e}ch\'{e} [Duke Math. J. (2006) 133 205-235]. The starting point is a new $(2r+1)$-diagonal form that is algebraically natural to the problem; for both models it converges to a certain random Schr\"{o}dinger operator on the half-line with $r\times r$ matrix-valued potential. The perturbation determines the boundary condition and the low-lying eigenvalues describe the limit, jointly as the perturbation varies in a fixed subspace. We treat the real, complex and quaternion ($\beta=1,2,4$) cases simultaneously. We further characterize the limit laws in terms of a diffusion related to Dyson's Brownian motion, or alternatively a linear parabolic PDE; here $\beta$ appears simply as a parameter. At $\beta=2$, the PDE appears to reconcile with known Painlev\'{e} formulas for these $r$-parameter deformations of the GUE Tracy-Widom law.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOP1033 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Independence ratio and random eigenvectors in transitive graphs

A theorem of Hoffman gives an upper bound on the independence ratio of regular graphs in terms of the minimum $\lambda_{\min}$ of the spectrum of the adjacency matrix. To complement this result we use random eigenvectors to gain lower bounds in the vertex-transitive case. For example, we prove that the independence ratio of a $3$-regular transitive graph is at least $$q=\frac{1}{2}-\frac{3}{4\pi}\arccos\biggl(\frac{1-\lambda _{\min}}{4}\biggr).$$ The same bound holds for infinite transitive graphs: we construct factor of i.i.d. independent sets for which the probability that any given vertex is in the set is at least $q-o(1)$. We also show that the set of the distributions of factor of i.i.d. processes is not closed w.r.t. the weak topology provided that the spectrum of the graph is uncountable.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOP952 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The right tail exponent of the Tracy-Widom-beta distribution

The Tracy-Widom beta distribution is the large dimensional limit of the top eigenvalue of beta random matrix ensembles. We use the stochastic Airy operator representation to show that as a tends to infinity the tail of the Tracy Widom distribution satisfies P(TW_beta > a) = a^(-3/4 beta+o(1)) exp(-2/3 beta a^(3/2))

Non-Liouville groups with return probability exponent at most 1/2

We construct a finitely generated group $G$ without the Liouville property such that the return probability of a random walk satisfies $p_{2n}(e,e) \gtrsim e^{-n^{1/2 + o(1)}}$. Recent results suggest that $1/2$ is indeed the smallest possible return probability exponent for non-Liouville groups. Our construction is based on permutational wreath products over tree-like Schreier graphs and the analysis of large deviations of inverted orbits on such graphs.Comment: 15 pages, 1 figure; v2: minor correction

Neural Networks in Bankruptcy Prediction - A Comparative Study on the Basis of the First Hungarian Bankruptcy Model

The article attempts to answer the question whether or not the latest bankruptcy prediction techniques are more reliable than traditional mathematical–statistical ones in Hungary. Simulation experiments carried out on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy prediction model clearly prove that bankruptcy models built using artificial neural networks have higher classification accuracy than models created in the 1990s based on discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. The article presents the main results, analyses the reasons for the differences and presents constructive proposals concerning the further development of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction

The bead process for beta ensembles

The bead process introduced by Boutillier is a countable interlacing of the determinantal sine-kernel point processes. We construct the bead process for general sine beta processes as an infinite dimensional Markov chain whose transition mechanism is explicitly described. We show that this process is the microscopic scaling limit in the bulk of the Hermite beta corner process introduced by Gorin and Shkolnikov, generalizing the process of the minors of the Gaussian unitary and orthogonal ensembles. In order to prove our results, we use bounds on the variance of the point counting of the circular and the Gaussian beta ensembles, proven in a companion paper