災害弱者と洪水リスク管理政策

防災学プログラム / Disaster Management Program政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies論文審査委員: 竹内 邦良（主査）, Kibler, Kelly M., 大原 美保, 安藤 尚一, 森地 茂, 園部 哲史, 立木 茂雄（同志社大学教授

Challenges and Synergies for the Local Energy Transition in Local Case Studies in the Netherlands and Hawaiʻi

The energy transition is already underway across the globe. This paperexamines two very different approaches in the implementation of renewable energyprojects—the Netherlands and Hawaiʻi. In the Netherlands, 27 suburbs are acting aspilot areas for the goals to transition from gas to alternative energy sources by 2050,and initiatives are implemented that allow for novel techniques and methods ofcooperation and governance. Meanwhile, the U.S. state of Hawaiʻi is ambitiouslyattempting to reach its 100% renewable portfolio standards (RPS) goal by 2045through the implementation of solar and wind projects across its islands.The main questions to be answered by looking at these two cases are how the currenttransition approach can enable reaching the sustainable development goals locallyalong with other policy targets, and which synergies and challenges arise during thisprocess. The results are grouped around four themes: (1) technologies; (2) datamanagement; (3) government/policies; and (4) society. This study examines thesethemes and proposes potential solutions to each of the challenges where possible, assupported by relevant literature. Special attention is paid to the educational and humanresources required for the energy transition, as the initiatives in the case studies areintended to be scaled and sped up in order to fulfil the national transition targets.By showcasing these two diverse examples of local implementation of the energytransition, this analysis assists in providing insight on the challenges for diversecommunities around the world, as well as informing and inspiring communities intransition

The Impacts of Urban Green Infrastructure on Water and Energy Resources: Lessons from and the Need for Integrated Studies

Green infrastructure (GI) can bring both water and energy benefits to urban environments. Yet, installation and maintenance may incur additional water and energy demand. This chapter synthesizes to what extent and how existing empirical and modeling studies generally quantify GI impacts on urban water and energy resources and which impacts and performance affecting factors are applied in green roof studies. We conclude that relatively few studies quantify impacts on both water and energy resources. Studies tend to focus on positive impacts, such as heat abatement, energy savings, and runoff reduction, with little attention for negative impacts, such as energy demands or emissions. From a water and energy perspective, green roofs are the most promising urban GI. They are easy to install and maintain in dense urban areas, reduce energy demand, and require little water. Yet, impacts of green roofs highly depend on local climate and design, especially structural and storage parameters, vegetation, and soil depth. Moreover, their performance depends on vegetation, soil moisture, substrate characteristics and depth; and different combinations of these factors lead to important tradeoffs for water and energy. The results call for extending and improving life cycle assessments, by quantifying negative impacts such as the energy costs of irrigation, and optimizing the identified tradeoffs

Development and evaluation of digital twins for district-level heating energy demand simulation.

To achieve the aim of a CO2 neutral built environment in 2050, a large part of the existing housing stock will have to be energetically retrofitted. It has been noted that a neighbourhood-oriented approach will be necessary for the feasibility, affordability and timeliness of this aim. Considering that many different stakeholders are involved in renovations at the neighbourhood level, and that multiple neighbourhoods will have to be retrofitted at the same time, efficient working methods are imperative. To facilitate the design, construction and operation of the new energy infrastructure, a prototype for a digital environment (digital twin) is developed for four Dutch pilot neighbourhoods. In this contribution, the authors will describe a procedure to convert publicly available geo-information to a CityGML model, which is used to simulate the monthly and annual space heating energy demand using SimStadt. To assess model fidelity, the simulation results are compared with publicly available aggregated energy use data. A procedure will be described to split the measured natural gas use into gas usage for space heating, domestic hot water and cooking. It is found that the simulation tends to overestimate the energy demand for space heating by 4 - 125%. This difference is largely explained by the manner in which the thermal properties of the buildings are estimated. In addition, the homogeneity of the neighbourhood in terms of the different building functions present has an impact on the accuracy of the simulation. Finally, possible invalid assumptions concerning setpoint temperatures and internal heating loads are of interest. It is concluded that more accurate simulation results will be obtained through the use of current input data. Most importantly: (i) reliable information on the buildings’ current thermal properties through e.g. energy audits, and (ii) reliable information on the buildings’ setpoint temperatures and internal heating loads through on-board monitoring systems

‘We knew a cyclone was imminent’:Hazard preparedness and disaster management efficiency nexus in coastal Bangladesh

"Natural hazard-prone countries in the global south adopted an anticipatory-preparedness approach in disaster risk reduction (DRR) by shifting away from the response and rehabilitation approach. It was highly associated with the policy recommendations of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) framework. Nevertheless, challenges remained in managing disaster risks due to heterogeneous efficiency among disaster managers. This research examines the institutional effectiveness of the disaster management agency in cyclone-prone areas in southwestern coastal Bangladesh through network analysis. This research also explores institutional efficiency’s impact on household preparedness in mitigating losses. We collected two distinct data sets from the local Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) and households in the same operational area of UDMC that were at risk of cyclonic disasters. To evaluate the effectiveness of local disaster management institutions, we conducted structured interviews with 336 representatives, spanning eight UDMCs in the cyclone-prone regions. To assess the impact of institutional performance (specifically, the UDMCs) on household disaster preparedness and loss mitigation, we collected data from 696 at-risk households. These households were located within the operational zones of the eight UDMCs, and the data was obtained using a structured questionnaire. Based on the application of social network analysis, our findings demonstrated that UDMC members were more active in the aftermath of disasters, as confirmed by three centrality measures - degree, eigenvector, and betweenness. Consequently, upon employing the Negative Binomial and Poisson regression models, we found a positive association between household engagement with UDMCs and participation in disaster preparedness training. This training appeared to enhance the knowledge and capacity of the respondents. The spill-over effects from disaster preparedness appeared to bolster the resilience of at-risk households, assist them in avoiding disaster-induced damages, and maintain consumption stability in the wake of disasters.

Sustainable life cycle design aspects: how aware are material scientists?

Abstract When developing new materials many aspects of sustainability are relevant, especially when the ultimate goal is mass production. More efficient energy storage and transmission are important parts of a larger product life cycle design and the confines of the circular economy, including environmental and social concerns. For example, due to environmental, geopolitical, and health concerns, it is important to choose materials that are easily accessible, as opposed to materials requiring complicated extraction, storage, and transportation methods. Equally important is the abundance of the material, as the mass production and use of a product are not sustainable if its raw components are scarce. This requires material scientists to be aware of how their design affects the later life cycle stages of the materials they develop. Very few studies cover whether material scientists take these type of questions into consideration. To resolve this, material scientists were questioned on various sustainability aspects. Results show that most of the questioned scientists have little to no awareness of what effects mass production of their developed materials might have regarding greenhouse gases or the workforce, or what their material’s recyclability or longevity might be. The results indicate that these questioned material scientists are not fully aware of several imperative sustainability aspects and do not fully consider the impacts of their designs. To increase instilling and evaluating awareness of sustainability aspects on life cycle design, two improvements are: increasing sustainability education by lifelong learning, and adding sustainability concerns as a required component to grants and funding