Competing risks modeling of length of hospital stay enhances risk-stratification of patient care: application to under-five children hospitalized in Malawi

Introduction Length of hospital stay (LOS), defined as the time from inpatient admission to discharge, death, referral, or abscondment, is one of the key indicators of quality in patient care. Reduced LOS lowers health care expenditure and minimizes the chance of in-hospital acquired infections. Conventional methods for estimating LOS such as the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and the Cox proportional hazards regression for time to discharge cannot account for competing risks such as death, referral, and abscondment. This study applied competing risk methods to investigate factors important for risk-stratifying patients based on LOS in order to enhance patient care. Methods This study analyzed data from ongoing safety surveillance of the malaria vaccine implementation program in Malawi's four district hospitals of Balaka, Machinga, Mchinji, and Ntchisi. Children aged 1–59 months who were hospitalized (spending at least one night in hospital) with a medical illness were consecutively enrolled between 1 November 2019 and 31 July 2021. Sub-distribution-hazard (SDH) ratios for the cumulative incidence of discharge were estimated using the Fine-Gray competing risk model. Results Among the 15,463 children hospitalized, 8,607 (55.7%) were male and 6,856 (44.3%) were female. The median age was 22 months [interquartile range (IQR): 12–33 months]. The cumulative incidence of discharge was 40% lower among HIV-positive children compared to HIV-negative (sub-distribution-hazard ratio [SDHR]: 0.60; [95% CI: 0.46–0.76]; P < 0.001); lower among children with severe and cerebral malaria [SDHR: 0.94; (95% CI: 0.86–0.97); P = 0.04], sepsis or septicemia [SDHR: 0.90; (95% CI: 0.82–0.98); P = 0.027], severe anemia related to malaria [SDHR: 0.54; (95% CI: 0.48–0.61); P < 0.001], and meningitis [SDHR: 0.18; (95% CI: 0.09–0.37); P < 0.001] when compared to non-severe malaria; and also 39% lower among malnourished children compared to those that were well-nourished [SDHR: 0.61; (95% CI: 0.55–0.68); P < 0.001]. Conclusions This study applied the Fine-Gray competing risk approach to more accurately model LOS as the time to discharge when there were significant rates of in-hospital mortality, referrals, and abscondment. Patient care can be enhanced by risk-stratifying by LOS based on children's age, HIV status, diagnosis, and nutritional status

Implementation of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) in Benin, Kenya, Malawi, and Uganda: stakeholder engagement meeting report

A Stakeholder engagement meeting on the implementation of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) in Benin, Kenya, Malawi, and Uganda was held in Nairobi, Kenya, on 27 September 2023. Representatives from the respective National Malaria Control Programmes, the World Health Organization (WHO) Geneva, Africa Regional and Kenya offices, research partners, non-governmental rganizations, and the Medicines for Malaria Venture participated. PDMC was recommended by the WHO in June 2022 and involves provision of a full anti-malarial treatment course at regular intervals during the post-discharge period in children hospitalized with severe anaemia in areas of moderate-to-high malaria transmission. The WHO recommendation followed evidence from a meta-analysis of three clinical trials and from acceptability, delivery, cost-ffectiveness, and modelling studies. The trials were conducted in The Gambia using monthly sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine during the transmission season, in Malawi using monthly artemether-lumefantrine, and in Kenya and Uganda using monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, showing a significant reduction in all-cause mortality by 77% (95% CI 30–98) and a 55% (95% CI 44–64) reduction in all-cause hospital readmissions 6 months post-discharge. The recommendation has not yet been implemented in sub-Saharan Africa. There is no established platform for PDMC delivery. The objectives of the meeting were for the participating countries to share country contexts, plans and experiences regarding the adoption and implementation of PDMC and to explore potential delivery platforms in each setting. The meeting served as the beginning of stakeholder engagement within the PDMC Saves Lives project and will be followed by formative and implementation research to evaluate alternative delivery strategies in selected countries. Meeting highlights included country consensus on use of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for PDMC and expansion of the target group to "severe anaemia or severe malaria", in addition to identifying country-specific options for PDMC delivery for evaluation in implementation research. Further exploration is needed on whether the age group should be extended to school-age children

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Household costs and care seeking patterns associated with COVID-19 in Blantyre, Malawi.

Economic consequences of COVID-19 illness and healthcare use for households in low income countries are not well known. We estimated costs associated with COVID-19 care-seeking and treatment from a household perspective and assessed determinants of treatment costs. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted between December 2020 and November 2021 in urban and peri-urban areas of Blantyre district. Adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 were asked to report the symptoms they experienced or prompted them to seek COVID-19 tests as well as healthcare seeking behaviors preceding and following COVID-19 diagnosis. For individuals who sought healthcare, information on out-of-pocket expenditures incurred while seeking and receiving care including on transport, food etc. by both the patients and their guardians was collected. Finally, data on time use seeking, receiving care and during convalesces was recorded. Multivariate Generalized Linear Models were used to evaluate association between household COVID-19 costs and their determinants. Of 171 individuals who took part in the study, the average age was 40.7 years, standard deviation (SD) 15.0, and 50.8% were females. Most participants (85.3%) were symptomatic. Of these, 67.8% sought care at health facilities and the majority (91.7%) were treated as outpatients. The average total household cost associated with COVID-19 seeking, receiving care and convalescence was $62.81 (SD$126.02). Average costs for outpatient and inpatient cases were $52.96 (SD$54.35) and $172.39 (SD$407.08), respectively. Average out-of-pocket household expenditures were $42.62 (SD$123.10), accounting for 62% of total household costs. Being a male COVID-19 patient and engagement in formal employment were significantly associated with high COVID-19 household costs. Households face high economic burden related to COVID-19 sickness and healthcare use. Social policies that support households cope with both the direct and indirect COVID-19 cost are needed to ensure access to healthcare and protect households from COVID-19 related shocks

Prompt treatment-seeking behaviour varies within communities among guardians of children with malaria-related fever in Malawi

Abstract Background In Malawi, malaria is responsible for 40% of hospital deaths. Prompt diagnosis and effective treatment within 24 h of fever onset is critical to prevent progression from uncomplicated to severe disease and to reduce transmission. Methods As part of the large evaluation of the malaria vaccine implementation programme (MVIP), this study analysed survey data to investigate whether prompt treatment-seeking behaviour is clustered at community-level according to socio-economic demographics. Results From 4563 households included in the survey, 4856 children aged 5–48 months were enrolled. Out of 4732 children with documented gender, 52.2% were female and 47.8% male. Among the 4856 children, 33.8% reported fever in the two weeks prior to the survey. Fever prevalence was high in communities with low socio-economic status (SES) (38.3% [95% CI: 33.7–43.5%]) and low in areas with high SES (29.8% [95% CI: 25.6–34.2%]). Among children with fever, 648 (39.5%) sought treatment promptly i.e., within 24 h from onset of fever symptoms. Children were more likely to be taken for prompt treatment among guardians with secondary education compared to those without formal education (aOR:1.37, 95% CI: 1.11–3.03); in communities with high compared to low SES [aOR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.27–6.07]. Children were less likely to be taken for prompt treatment if were in communities far beyond 5 km to health facility than within 5 km [aOR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.21–0.92]. Conclusion The high heterogeneity in prevalence of fever and levels of prompt treatment-seeking behaviour underscore the need to promote community-level malaria control interventions (such as use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), intermittent preventive therapy (IPT), presumptive treatment and education). Programmes aimed at improving treatment-seeking behaviour should consider targeting communities with low SES and those far from health facility

Malaria in Children with Sickle Cell Anaemia in Areas with Low, Moderate and High Transmission in Uganda

Background. Few large prospective studies have evaluated burden and outcomes of malaria in children with sickle cell anaemia (SCA) in malaria endemic countries. We evaluated the incidence, complications and outcome of malaria in three cohorts of Ugandan children with SCA in three areas with differing malaria transmission. Methods. Cohort 1 were SCA aged 3-9 years, enrolled in the hydroxyurea therapy for neurological and cognitive protection in Uganda (BRAINSAFE II) trial at Mulago Hospital, a low transmission area, while cohort 2 and 3 aged 6 months to 15 years, were enrolled in the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) or sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) for the chemoprevention of malaria in SCA (CHEMCHA) trial at Jinja Hospital (moderate transmission) and Kitgum Hospital (high transmission). In cohort 1, all received SP for malaria chemoprophylaxis and hydroxyurea at 20-30mg/kg/day, while cohorts 2 and 3, received either DP or SP for malaria chemoprevention, and a proportion (10%) received hydroxyurea in the study. Results. A total of 706 participants were enrolled: 267, 249 and 190 at Mulago, Jinja and Kitgum respectively. The mean age was 6.5 (SD 3.4) years; 5.1 (1.7), 7.9 (4.3) and 6.8 (3.5) years for Mulago, Jinja, and Kitgum respectively. Incidence of malaria was 13 (95% CI 6, 20) per 100 child years in low, 38 (95% CI 26, 51) in moderate and 104 (95% CI 64, 144) in the high transmission area, p<0.001. Adjusting for hydroxyurea treatment, incidence of malaria was 33 (95%CI 14, 52) per 100 child year on hydroxyurea and 51 (95%CI 40, 62) per 100 child years without hydroxyurea, p=0.001. The most common SCA-related complications were anaemia (39.6%, 133/336), and pain (27.7%, 93/336) among children with malaria. Over a period of 1042.8 person years, there were 115 admissions for malaria, with an overall incidence of 11 per 100 child year (95% CI 9, 13), and this differed across sites, p<0.001. Overall, 1.5% (11/706) children died, and 18.2% (2/11) deaths were directly related to malaria infection. Conclusion. Malaria incidence remains high among Ugandan children with SCA, and differs by transmission patterns. Prevention strategies should be strengthened, especially in high transmission areas

A pharmacokinetic randomised interventional study to optimise dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine dosing for malaria preventive treatment in Malawian infants: A protocol for the OPTIMAL study

Background A newer malaria preventive treatment, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP), has been identified as an effective alternative to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, to which malaria parasites are increasingly becoming resistant. However, how best to dose DP to safely prevent malaria in infants when aligned with routine health facility visits remains unresolved. As infants are usually excluded from participating in early dose optimisation clinical trials, the present study seeks to shift the paradigm and develop optimised DP dosing strategies for malaria preventive treatment in infants. Methods A randomised, single-blind, placebo-controlled, two-arm, interventional study will be conducted in southern Malawi. At 10 weeks (2.5 months) of age, 220 eligible infants will be randomised to receive DP (intervention group, n=110) or placebo (control group, n=110) with routine vaccines. They will be followed until 12 months of age and receive three further DP or placebo treatment courses at 14 weeks, six- and nine months. Infants in the intervention group will contribute capillary samples for piperaquine concentrations pre-dose and at three-, seven-, 14- and 28-days post-DP dosing as well as capillary samples pre-dose and on day 28 post-DP to quantify malaria parasitaemia using microscopy and quantitative PCR. In the control group, infants will contribute capillary blood samples for malaria parasitaemia at the same time points as the intervention group. Malaria incidence and adverse events will be compared between the two groups. Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling techniques will be applied to derive feasible, optimised, efficacious, and safe DP dosing strategies for malaria preventive treatment in infancy. Conclusions The findings will provide the much-needed evidence to inform DP dosing for malaria preventive treatment in infants when administered with routine health facility visits. Additionally, they will help inform optimal DP dosing for malaria treatment in infants. The trial was registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry; (PACTR202211575727659) on 8 November 2022. Protocol version 3.1, dated 29 September 2022

Changes in body mass index and hemoglobin concentration in breastfeeding women living with HIV with a CD4 count over 350: Results from 4 African countries (The ANRS 12174 trial)

Introduction: Breastfeeding is recommended for infants born to HIV-infected women in low-income settings. Both breastfeeding and HIV-infection are energy demanding. Our objective was to explore how exclusive and predominant breastfeeding changes body mass index (BMI) among breastfeeding HIV1-positive women participating in the ANRS12174 trial (clinical trial no NCT0064026). Methods: HIV-positive women (n = 1 267) with CD4 count >350, intending to breastfeed HIV-negative infants were enrolled from Burkina Faso, South Africa, Uganda and Zambia and counselled on breastfeeding. N = 1 216 were included in the analysis. The trial compared Lamivudine and Lopinavir/Ritonavir as a peri-exposure prophylaxis. We ran a linear mixed-effect model with BMI as the dependent variable and exclusive or predominant breastfeeding duration as the key explanatory variable. Results: Any breastfeeding or exclusive/predominant) breastfeeding was initiated by 99.6% and 98.6% of the mothers respectively in the first week after birth. The median (interquartile range: IQR) duration of the group that did any breastfeeding or the group that did exclusive /predominant breastfeeding were 9.5 (7.5; 10.6) and 5.8 (5.6; 5.9)) months, respectively. The median (IQR) age, BMI, CD4 count, and HIV viral load at baseline (day 7) were 27 (23.3; 31) years, 23.7 (21.3; 27.0) kg/m2, 530 (432.5; 668.5) cells/μl and 0.1 (0.8; 13.7)1000 copies/mL, respectively. No major change in mean BMI was seen in this cohort over a 50-week period during lactation. The mean change between 26 and 50 weeks after birth was 0.7 kg/m2. Baseline mean BMI (measured on day 7 postpartum) and CD4 count were positively associated with maternal BMI change, with a mean increase of 1.0 kg/m2 (0.9; 1.0) per each additional baseline-BMI kilogram and 0.3 kg/m2 (0.2; 0.5) for each additional CD4 cell/μl, respectively. Conclusion: Breastfeeding was not negatively correlated with the BMI of HIV-1 infected Sub-Saharan African mothers. However, a higher baseline BMI and a CD4 count >500 cells/μl were associated with maternal BMI during the exclusive/ predominant breastfeeding period. Considering the benefits of breast milk for the infants and the recurrent results from different studies that breastfeeding is not harmful to the HIV-1-infected mothers, this study also supports the WHO 2016 guidelines on infant feeding that mothers living with HIV should breastfeed where formula is not safe for at least 12 months and up to 24 months, given that the right treatment or prophylaxis for the infection is administered. These findings and conclusions cannot be extrapolated to women who are immune-compromised or have AIDS