Technical Assistance Project for the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency

This report was prepared in response to a request for technical assistance from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA). The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy supported the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in its response to this request through the Technical Assistance Project. Discussion with the MPCA identified the following as the highest-priority questions: What is the effect of (1) size of Renewable Energy Reserve (RER) and (2) duration of allocation award on (a) NOx emissions in Minnesota and (b) retail electricity prices? What data is available on the response of wind energy development to financial incentives? This report addresses those questions

Framework for State-Level Renewable Energy Market Potential Studies

State-level policymakers are relying on estimates of the market potential for renewable energy resources as they set goals and develop policies to accelerate the development of these resources. Therefore, accuracy of such estimates should be understood and possibly improved to appropriately support these decisions. This document provides a framework and next steps for state officials who require estimates of renewable energy market potential. The report gives insight into how to conduct a market potential study, including what supporting data are needed and what types of assumptions need to be made. The report distinguishes between goal-oriented studies and other types of studies, and explains the benefits of each

Impact of increased electric vehicle use on battery recycling infrastructure

State and Federal regulations have been implemented that are intended to encourage more widespread use of low-emission vehicles. These regulations include requirements of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and regulations pursuant to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and the Energy Policy Act. If the market share of electric vehicles increases in response to these initiatives, corresponding growth will occur in quantities of spent electric vehicle batteries for disposal. Electric vehicle battery recycling infrastructure must be adequate to support collection, transportation, recovery, and disposal stages of waste battery handling. For some battery types, such as lead-acid, a recycling infrastructure is well established; for others, little exists. This paper examines implications of increasing electric vehicle use for lead recovery infrastructure. Secondary lead recovery facilities can be expected to have adequate capacity to accommodate lead-acid electric vehicle battery recycling. However, they face stringent environmental constraints that may curtail capacity use or new capacity installation. Advanced technologies help address these environmental constraints. For example, this paper describes using backup power to avoid air emissions that could occur if electric utility power outages disable emissions control equipment. This approach has been implemented by GNB Technologies, a major manufacturer and recycler of lead-acid batteries. Secondary lead recovery facilities appear to have adequate capacity to accommodate lead waste from electric vehicles, but growth in that capacity could be constrained by environmental regulations. Advances in lead recovery technologies may alleviate possible environmental constraints on capacity growth

Effects of Deployment Investment on the Growth of the Biofuels Industry

In support of the national goals for biofuel use in the United States, numerous technologies have been developed that convert biomass to biofuels. Some of these biomass to biofuel conversion technology pathways are operating at commercial scales, while others are in earlier stages of development. The advancement of a new pathway toward commercialization involves various types of progress, including yield improvements, process engineering, and financial performance. Actions of private investors and public programs can accelerate the demonstration and deployment of new conversion technology pathways. These investors (both private and public) will pursue a range of pilot, demonstration, and pioneer scale biorefinery investments; the most cost-effective set of investments for advancing the maturity of any given biomass to biofuel conversion technology pathway is unknown. In some cases, whether or not the pathway itself will ultimately be technically and financially successful is also unknown. This report presents results from the Biomass Scenario Model -- a system dynamics model of the biomass to biofuels system -- that estimate effects of investments in biorefineries at different maturity levels and operational scales. The report discusses challenges in estimating effects of such investments and explores the interaction between this deployment investment and a volumetric production incentive. Model results show that investments in demonstration and deployment have a substantial positive effect on the development of the biofuels industry. Results also show that other conditions, such as supportive policies, have major impacts on the effectiveness of such investments

Incorporating Wind Generation in Cap and Trade Programs

Cap and trade programs are increasingly being used to reduce emissions from electricity generation in the United States. Cap and trade programs primarily target emitting generators, but programs have also included renewable generators, such as wind generators. States cite several reasons why they have considered the policy option of including renewable generators in cap and trade programs: to provide an incentive for lower-emitting generation, to achieve emissions reductions in non-capped pollutants, and to gain local economic benefits associated with renewable energy projects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency also notes these rationales for considering this policy alternative, and the National Association of Regulatory Commissioners (NARUC) passed a resolution supporting the inclusion of renewable energy in cap and trade programs. This report explores why states consider this policy option, what participation could mean for wind generators, and how wind generation can most effectively be included in state, federal, and regional cap and trade programs

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation. Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline modes each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. The current allocation of freight by mode is the product of technologic, economic, and regulatory frameworks, and a variety of factors -- price, speed, reliability, accessibility, visibility, security, and safety -- influence mode. Based on a comprehensive literature review, this report considers how analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt shifts to energy-efficient, low-emission modes. There are substantial opportunities to reduce the energy used for freight transportation, but it will be difficult to shift large volumes from one mode to another without imposing considerable additional costs on businesses and consumers. This report explores federal government actions that could help trigger the shifts in modal shares needed to reduce energy consumption and emissions. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation

Ethanol Distribution, Dispensing, and Use: Analysis of a Portion of the Biomass-to-Biofuels Supply Chain Using System Dynamics

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain–represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner’s decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer’s choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles

Energy Sector Market Analysis

This paper presents the results of energy market analysis sponsored by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Weatherization and International Program (WIP) within the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). The analysis was conducted by a team of DOE laboratory experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), with additional input from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The analysis was structured to identify those markets and niches where government can create the biggest impact by informing management decisions in the private and public sectors. The analysis identifies those markets and niches where opportunities exist for increasing energy efficiency and renewable energy use