Volatility Modeling Using High Frequency Trade Data to Identify Cryptocurrency Bubbles

In the light of sudden interest in Bitcoin during 2017, which saw Bitcoin growing multifold in market price, I study blockchain, Bitcoin and few other top cryptocurrencies, and examine whether Bitcoin was in a financial bubble during late 2017 and early 2018, when Bitcoin price had a sudden and dramatic run up. I conduct statistical analysis on the High Frequency Trade (HFT) data, sourced from Bloomberg and other crypto exchanges. The statistical analysis includes filtering in price data using 5%, 7% and 10% daily price jump rules (considered separately), interpolating price points between low and high prices in the time series, estimating price volatility at discrete price points, analyzing the volatility behavior and concluding whether or not price process is a strict local martingale. A bubble is confirmed if the price process is a strict local martingale, and not a true martingale. I run the test for Bitcoin, and find that Bitcoin was in intermittently in a bubble during the years 2017 and 2018. I repeat the test for Ethereum, another top trading cryptocurrency, and find that Ethereum was in a bubble during Nov 2017 - Feb 2018, but infrequently and for lower duration of days as compared to Bitcoin. Though Bitcoin price dramatically increased during 2017, the number of transactions and transactions volume rather fell. I develop a statistical test that can be applied on the High Frequency Trade (HFT) data of any highly traded asset to identify whether or not that asset has been in a bubble during the period of consideration. I also find that Bitcoin has positive correlation with other top cryptocurrencies and almost zero correlation with S&P 500, gold, and the crude oil

Model-based controller design and simulation of a marine chiller

For the past decade, the US Navy has committed to fundamental research and technology development on its next generation of surface ships. The vision is that these warships will be dynamically reconfigurable, energy-efficient, and have state-of-the-art pulsed energy weapons and sensors onboard. These developments represent a significant increase in highly dynamic on-board electrical systems that will produce correspondingly large amounts of dynamic heat generation, which, if not managed properly, will likely produce significant thermal side effects. In previous work, a highly customizable simulation framework has been developed to address thermal management issues across both the mechanical and electrical domains. This software environment is called the Dynamic Thermal Modeling and Simulation (DTMS) framework. The purpose of the current work is to introduce modern control theory into DTMS, thus providing the framework with the ability to control large-scale system simulations. The research reported in this thesis uses control of a marine chiller as a simulation vehicle. Several control strategies were implemented. These included the well-established PID controller as well as a new controller based on optimal control theory. Results for chiller simulations in the case of no-control, PID control, and optimal control are presented here. The comparative effectiveness of these controls in bringing the chiller to startup equilibrium is investigated. Response of the chiller model and the optimal controller to highly dynamic, varying heat loads was tested. The PID controller in DTMS is modeled as a special case of the transfer function control scheme. A PID controller is simple to implement but responses are inherently local and multiple controls in a system or subsystem simulation can easily lead to conflicts. The optimal control problem has been modeled as an Infinite Horizon Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) problem. This formulation is not local and does not create undesirable effects in parts of the system that not controlled directly by controller inputs. Using the York 200-ton marine chiller as an example, specific steps required to formulate the LQR problem are documented in this report. Implementation of the LQR controller was demonstrated for the startup to steady-state function of the chiller at full load. Treatment of the optimal controller ends with simulation of the chiller and its LQR controller under the influence of varying dynamic heat loads in a chilled water loop. The heat load variation examined has highly transient characteristics that affect the temperature of the fresh water entering the chiller, as well as the refrigerant pressure and temperature in the evaporator. The LQR formulation is shown to actively adjust to these varying operating points in a smooth and responsive manner.Mechanical Engineerin

Characterization of dry sliding behavior of a Si-Mo-Cr ductile cast iron

The prerequisites for a brake disc material include a lower specific wear rate, a high coefficient of friction against brake pad material, lighter weight, and a higher heat dissipation rate. The present research studied the dry sliding wear behavior of as-cast Si-Mo-Cr ductile cast iron (DCI). A series of pin-on-disc wear tests are conducted using Taguchi L16 array for the optimum combination of load, sliding velocity, and temperature on a rotary tribometer setup at controlled temperatures ranging from 30°C to 240°C. The analysis of variance, first-order regression analysis, and confirmation tests are done to validate the results obtained for the material's wear properties. SEM and EdX analysis of wear surfaces is also done. It founds that the sliding velocity has a more significant influence on the specific wear rate. In contrast, the applied load is the key influencing parameter for a higher value of the coefficient of friction

Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Negative Spring back in Interstitial Free (IF) Steel

Abstract One of the most sensitive features of sheet metal forming processes is the elastic recovery during unloading, called spring-back, which leads to some geometric changes in the product. This phenomenon will affect bend angle and bend curvature, and can be influenced by various factors. In this research, the effects of anisotropy i.e., the rolling direction of 0° , 45° & 90° of ultra low carbon steel Interstitial Free (IF) Steel in V-bending with a punch corner radii of 7.5mm, were studied by experiments and numerical simulations. Comparison between the experimental and the finite element simulation results are also presented and found to be in close agreement

A Comprehensive Review on Anti-Cancer Properties of Amaranthus viridis

Amaranthus Viridis L. belongs to the Family (Amaranthaceae) commonly known as “Chowlai” which a common name. A. Viridis contains several compounds like Quercetin, Kaempferol, Hydroxycinnamic acids (HCs) (coumaric acid, ferulic acid, sinapic acid, caffeic acid, chlorogenic acid, rosmarinic acid), Syringic acid (SA), Rutin, Vitexin, Vanillic acid, etc . In search of new activities and chemical entities, phytochemical screening of the extract from leaves of A. Viridis L. indicates the presence of biologically active constituents saponins, tannins, phenols, flavonoids, alkaloids, cardiac glycoside, steroids, and triterpenoids. Quercetin is the aglycone form of several other flavonoid glycosides, Kaempferol (3,4′,5,7- tetrahydroxyflavone) is a natural flavonol, a type of flavonoid, Syringic acid (SA) is a phenolic compound of natural origin. Syringic acid (SA) is a phenolic compound which obtained from natural origin. SA is an excellent compound to be used as a therapeutic agent in various diseases (diabetes, CVDs, cancer, cerebral ischemia, neuro and liver damage) and possesses anti-oxidant, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, and antiendotoxic activities. Vitexin (apigenin-8-C-glucoside) has also shows the wide range of pharmacological effects, including but not limited to anti-oxidant, anti-cancer, anti-inflammatory, and neuroprotective effects. Vanillic acid shows the anti-cancer activity

A study of association of vitamin D deficiency and coronary artery disease

Background: Recently vitamin D has received great interests for its multiple effects on inflammatory system and potential role in atherothrombosis. Coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the common causes of death and disability in developed countries. Experimental evidence points to the involvement of multiple factors in coronary plaque formation, including vitamin D. The study aimed to examine the association of coronary artery disease with vitamin D level.Methods: 140 patients of CAD (coronary artery disease) and 101 age and sex matched control were enrolled in the study and 25-hyroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration was measured. All participants were evaluated for presence of conventional risk factors for coronary artery disease. Association of vitamin D level was established after adjusting other risk factors using logistic regression analysis.Results: In our study vitamin D level is significantly lower in patient group (CAD patients) compared with control group (18.2±10.9 vs 28.8±21ng/mL). Vitamin D deficiency was present in 81.4% patient in CAD patients whereas 57.7% in control group. Vitamin D deficiency was found to be an independent predictor of CAD after adjusting effect of other risk factors like hypertension, diabetes, smoking, obesity, high blood cholesterol and level of physical activity with adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 2.695 (1.148-6.330).Conclusions: In present study patients of coronary artery disease had significantly low level of vitamin D as compared to individual without coronary artery disease. Vitamin D deficiency was found to be an independent predictor of CAD after adjusting other risk factors emphasizing that vitamin D can be a potential risk factor for development of coronary artery disease. 

Assessment of job stress among non-teaching staff: A cross-sectional study at teaching hospital, Central India

Introduction: Job stress plays an important role in the maintenance of organizational performance. A key aspect of job stress is increased workload, role conflict, poor job control, lack of support from coworkers and interpersonal conflict. Most studies in the field of job stress have focused on private sectors. The objective of this study was to assess the job stress among non-teaching staff at government teaching hospital. Methods: The present cross-sectional study was carried out in a government teaching hospital in central India between Jan 2020 to March 2020 among 90 participants purposively chosen for the study. New Job Stress Scale was used to assess the extent of stress among the participants. Approval from Institutional Ethical Committee was obtained before commencing the study. Data was analyzed by SPSS version 20 for percentages, mean and standard deviation. Results: A moderate level of stress affects 47.78 percent of participants. The present study found that most problematic dimensions of job stress variables were dimension of role conflict with as many as 51% of participants had experience role expectation conflict. Conclusion: We can infer from this finding that we need to have formal job description written for their non-teaching staff so that their role should be clear and unambiguous

Development and In vitro Evaluation of Betahistine Adhesive-Type Transdermal Delivery System

Purpose: To develop a transdermal betahistine (BTH) delivery system using different pressure sensitive adhesives (PSAs) including acrylics, polyisobutylene and styrenic rubber solution.Methods: Formulations were prepared by solvent casting and adhesive transfer method. PSAs - acrylate vinylacetate (AVA), hydrophilic acrylate (HA), acrylic non-curing (ANC), polyisobutylene (PIB), and tackified styrenic rubber solution (TSR) - were evaluated for their suitability in terms of miscibility, maximum drug loading, effect on tack property and in vitro permeation through excised guinea pig skin. Furthermore, one of the PSAs was tested in relation to effect of penetration enhancers on tack property, in vitro permeation, in vivo patch adhesion performance and stability.Results: Only formulations prepared with AVA and HA were stable. Increased drug loading in these PSAs significantly reduced tack. In vitro permeation data across guinea pig skin demonstrated that BTH flux from from the formulation containing HA (F1) was significantly (p < 0.001) higher than that containing AVA (F2). Formulations containing 2 % enhancer showed good tack. Specifically, the formulation containing 2 % oleic acid as enhancer not only showed the highest permeation but also good tack property, non-irritancy for up to 36 h and stability under accelerated conditions.Conclusion: The formulation containing HA as the PSA and 2 % oleic acid as enhancer demonstrated a good potential for further development to an adhesive-type transdermal delivery system for BTH.Keywords: Meniere’s syndrome, Transdermal delivery, Betahistine, Pressure-sensitive adhesives, Penetration enhancersTropical Journal of Pharmaceutical Research December 2010; 9 (6): 516-52