A comparative study of satellite and ground-based phenology

Long time series of ground-based plant phenology, as well as more than two decades of satellite-derived phenological metrics, are currently available to assess the impacts of climate variability and trends on terrestrial vegetation. Traditional plant phenology provides very accurate information on individual plant species, but with limited spatial coverage. Satellite phenology allows monitoring of terrestrial vegetation on a global scale and provides an integrative view at the landscape level. Linking the strengths of both methodologies has high potential value for climate impact studies. We compared a multispecies index from ground-observed spring phases with two types (maximum slope and threshold approach) of satellite-derived start-of-season (SOS) metrics. We focus on Switzerland from 1982 to 2001 and show that temporal and spatial variability of the multispecies index correspond well with the satellite-derived metrics. All phenological metrics correlate with temperature anomalies as expected. The slope approach proved to deviate strongly from the temporal development of the ground observations as well as from the threshold-defined SOS satellite measure. The slope spring indicator is considered to indicate a different stage in vegetation development and is therefore less suited as a SOS parameter for comparative studies in relation to ground-observed phenology. Satellite-derived metrics are, however, very susceptible to snow cover, and it is suggested that this snow cover should be better accounted for by the use of newer satellite sensor

Technology to aid the analysis of large-volume multi-institute climate model output at a central analysis facility (PRIMAVERA Data Management Tool V2.10)

The PRIMAVERA project aimed to develop a new generation of advanced and well-evaluated high-resolution global climate models. As part of PRIMAVERA, seven different climate models were run in both standard and higher-resolution configurations, with common initial conditions and forcings to form a multi-model ensemble. The ensemble simulations were run on high-performance computers across Europe and generated approximately 1.6 PiB (pebibytes) of output. To allow the data from all models to be analysed at this scale, PRIMAVERA scientists were encouraged to bring their analysis to the data. All data were transferred to a central analysis facility (CAF), in this case the JASMIN super-data-cluster, where it was catalogued and details made available to users using the web interface of the PRIMAVERA Data Management Tool (DMT). Users from across the project were able to query the available data using the DMT and then access it at the CAF. Here we describe how the PRIMAVERA project used the CAF's facilities to enable users to analyse this multi-model dataset. We believe that PRIMAVERA's experience using a CAF demonstrates how similar, multi-institute, big-data projects can efficiently share, organise and analyse large volumes of data.</p

The sensitivity of Euro-Atlantic regimes to model horizontal resolution

There is growing evidence that the atmospheric dynamics of the Euro-Atlantic sector during winter is driven in part by the presence of quasi-persistent regimes. However, general circulation models typically struggle to simulate these with, for example, an overly weakly persistent blocking regime. Previous studies have showed that increased horizontal resolution can improve the regime structure of a model but have so far only considered a single model with only one ensemble member at each resolution, leaving open the possibility that this may be either coincidental or model dependent. We show that the improvement in regime structure due to increased resolution is robust across multiple models with multiple ensemble members. However, while the high-resolution models have notably more tightly clustered data, other aspects of the regimes may not necessarily improve and are also subject to a large amount of sampling variability that typically requires at least three ensemble members to surmount

Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution

Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes

Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high resolution global climate models

The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project, using PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model GA3 configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km) and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and North West Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African Easterly Waves and the African Easterly Jet. However, the intensity of the modelled tropical cyclones as measured by 10 m wind speed remain weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, while in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic, and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the Central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more stronger storm

Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25km AGCM

Limited spatial resolution is one of the factors that may hamper applications of global climate models (GCMs), in particular over Europe with its complex coastline and orography. In this study, the representation of European mean and extreme precipitation is evaluated in simulations with an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) at different resolutions between about 135 and 25km grid spacing in the mid-latitudes. The continent-wide root-mean-square error in mean precipitation in the 25km model is about 25% smaller than in the 135km model in winter. Clear improvements are also seen in autumn and spring, whereas the model's sensitivity to resolution is very small in summer. Extreme precipitation is evaluated by estimating generalised extreme value distributions (GEVs) of daily precipitation aggregated over river basins whose surface area is greater than 50000km2. GEV location and scale parameters are measures of the typical magnitude and of the interannual variability of extremes, respectively. Median model biases in both these parameters are around 10% in summer and around 20% in the other seasons. For some river basins, however, these biases can be much larger and take values between 50% and 100%. Extreme precipitation is better simulated in the 25km model, especially during autumn when the median GEV parameter biases are more than halved, and in the North European Plains, from the Loire in the west to the Vistula in the east. A sensitivity experiment is conducted showing that these resolution sensitivities in both mean and extreme precipitation are in many areas primarily due to the increase in resolution of the model orography. The findings of this study illustrate the improved capability of a global high-resolution model in simulating European mean and extreme precipitation

Tomographic image of melt storage beneath Askja Volcano, Iceland using local microseismicity

We use P wave and S wave arrivals from microseismic earthquakes to construct 3-D tomographic Vp and Vs images of the magma storage region beneath Askja's central volcano in the Northern Volcanic Zone of Iceland. A distinctive ellipsoidal low-velocity anomaly, with both Vp and Vsvelocities 8-12% below the background, is imaged at 6-11 km depth beneath the caldera. The presence of a shallow magma chamber is corroborated by geodetic and gravity studies. The small Vp/Vs anomaly suggests a lack of pervasive melt. We interpret this anomaly as a region of multiple sills, some frozen but hot, others containing partial melt. A second, smaller low-velocity anomaly beneath the main magma storage region may represent a magma migration pathway. This interpretation is supported by the close proximity to the anomaly of clusters of deep, magmatically induced earthquakes. However, the location and shape of this deep anomaly are poorly constrained by the current data set

Induction of a Protective Response in Mice by the Dengue Virus NS3 Protein Using DNA Vaccines

The dengue non-structural 3 (NS3) is a multifunctional protein, containing a serino-protease domain, located at the N-terminal portion, and helicase, NTPase and RTPase domains present in the C-terminal region. This protein is considered the main target for CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses during dengue infection, which may be involved in protection. However, few studies have been undertaken evaluating the use of this protein as a protective antigen against dengue, as well as other flavivirus. In the present work, we investigate the protective efficacy of DNA vaccines based on the NS3 protein from DENV2. Different recombinant plasmids were constructed, encoding either the full-length NS3 protein or only its functional domains (protease and helicase), fused or not to a signal peptide (t-PA). The recombinant proteins were successfully expressed in transfected BHK-21 cells, and only plasmids encoding the t-PA signal sequence mediated protein secretion. Balb/c mice were immunized with the different DNA vaccines and challenged with a lethal dose of DENV2. Most animals immunized with plasmids encoding the full-length NS3 or the helicase domain survived challenge, regardless of the presence of the t-PA. However, some mice presented clinical signs of infection with high morbidity (hind leg paralysis and hunched posture), mainly in animal groups immunized with the DNA vaccines based on the helicase domain. On the other hand, inoculation with plasmids encoding the protease domain did not induce any protection, since mortality and morbidity rates in these mouse groups were similar to those detected in the control animals. The cellular immune response was analyzed by ELISPOT with a specific-CD8+ T cell NS3 peptide. Results revealed that the DNA vaccines based on the full-length protein induced the production of INF-γ, thus suggesting the involvement of this branch of the immune system in the protection