Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model

This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.AIDS/HIV, sexual behavior, simulation model, South Africa

Aging with HIV: Increased risk of HIV comorbidities in older adults

With improved access to antiretroviral treatment (ART), adults with HIV live longer to reach older age. The number of older adults living with HIV is increasing steadily, giving rise to a new population of interest in HIV research and for invigorated considerations in health service delivery and policy. We analysed the profile of comorbidities in older people (50 years and older) living with HIV in South Africa. We conducted a secondary analysis of all individuals over 15 years who tested HIV positive in the Fifth South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey, 2017. We conducted multivariate logistic regression to determine the factors associated with having HIV comorbidity using Stata 15.0 software. We entered 3755 people living with HIV into the analysis, of whom 18.3% (n = 688) were 50 years or older

A systematic method for comparing multimorbidity in national surveys

Due to gaps in the literature, we developed a systematic method to assess multimorbidity using national surveys. The objectives of this study were thus to identify methods used to defne and measure multimorbidity, to create a pre-defned list of disease conditions, to identify potential national surveys to include, to select disease condi‑ tions for each survey, and to analyse and compare the survey fndings. We used the count method to defne multimorbidity. We created a pre-defned list of disease conditions by examining international literature and using local data on the burden of disease. We assessed national surveys, report‑ ing on more than one disease condition in people 15 years and older, for inclusion. For each survey, the prevalence of multimorbidity was calculated, the disease patterns among the multimorbid population were assessed using a latent class analysis and logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic and behavioural factors associated with multimorbidity

Bayesian modelling of population trends in alcohol consumption provides empirically based country estimates for South Africa

Background Alcohol use has widespread effects on health and contributes to over 200 detrimental conditions. Although the pattern of heavy episodic drinking independently increases the risk for injuries and transmission of some infectious diseases, long-term average consumption is the fundamental predictor of risk for most conditions. Population surveys, which are the main source of data on alcohol exposure, suffer from bias and uncertainty. This article proposes a novel triangulation method to reduce bias by rescaling consumption estimates by sex and age to match country-level consumption from administrative data. Methods We used data from 17 population surveys to estimate age- and sex-specific trends in alcohol consumption in the adult population of South Africa between 1998 and 2016. Independently for each survey, we calculated sex- and age-specific estimates of the prevalence of drinkers and the distribution of individuals across consumption categories. We used these aggregated results, together with data on alcohol production, sales and import/export, as inputs of a Bayesian model and generated yearly estimates of the prevalence of drinkers in the population and the parameters that characterise the distribution of the average consumption among drinkers. Results Among males, the prevalence of drinkers decreased between 1998 and 2009, from 56.2% (95% CI 53.7%; 58.7%) to 50.6% (49.3%; 52.0%), and increased afterwards to 53.9% (51.5%; 56.2%) in 2016. The average consumption from 52.1 g/day (49.1; 55.6) in 1998 to 42.8 g/day (40.0; 45.7) in 2016. Among females the prevalence of current drinkers rose from 19.0% (17.2%; 20.8%) in 1998 to 20.0% (18.3%; 21.7%) in 2016 while average consumption decreased from 32.7 g/day (30.2; 35.0) to 26.4 g/day (23.8; 28.9). Conclusions The methodology provides a viable alternative to current approaches to reconcile survey estimates of individual alcohol consumption patterns with aggregate administrative data. It provides sex- and age-specific estimates of prevalence of drinkers and distribution of average daily consumption among drinkers in populations. Reliance on locally sourced data instead of global and regional trend estimates better reflects local nuances and is adaptable to the inclusion of additional data. This provides a powerful tool to monitor consumption, develop burden of disease estimates and inform and evaluate public health interventions

Prevalence of type 2 diabetes in South Africa : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Synthesis of existing prevalence data using rigorous systematic review methods is considered an effective strategy to generate representative and robust prevalence figures to inform health planning and policy. The purpose of this systematic review was to identify, collate, and synthesise all studies reporting the prevalence of total and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2DM), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in South Africa. Four databases, PubMed, Scopus,Web of Science, and African Index Medicus were searched for articles published between January 1997 and June 2020. A total of 1886 articles were identified, of which 11 were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence in individuals 25 years and older was 15.25% (11.07–19.95%) for T2DM, 9.59% (5.82–14.17%) for IGT, 3.55% (0.38–9.61%) for IFG, and 8.29% (4.97–12.34%) for newly diagnosed T2DM. Although our pooled estimate may be imprecise due to significant heterogeneity across studies with regard to population group, age, gender, setting, diagnostic test, and study design, we provide evidence that the burden of glucose intolerance in South Africa is high. These factors contribute to the paucity of representative T2DM prevalence data. There is a need for well-designed epidemiological studies that use best-practice and standardised methods to assess prevalence.SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL : Table S1: PRISMA 2009 Checklist. Table S2: PubMed search strategy. Table S3: Quality assessment criteria for prevalence studies. Table S4: Prevalence of T2DM in South Africans aged 25 years and older. Table S5: Prevalence of IGT, IFG and undiagnosed T2DM in South Africans aged 25 years and older. Table S6: Level of evidence as qualified with GRADE. Figure S1: Funnel plot of included studies.The South African Medical Research Councilhttps://www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerpham2022Obstetrics and Gynaecolog

HIV research in South Africa: Advancing life

South African (SA) researchers have made both national and global contributions to HIV prevention and treatment. Research conducted in SA has contributed markedly to improved survival in HIV-infected infants, children and adults. The translation of clinical research into practice has enabled the curtailment of paediatric HIV in SA. Along with international collaborators, SA has made pivotal contributions to biomedical prevention modalities including medical male circumcision and oral and topical microbicides, and is undertaking pivotal HIV vaccine research. Research into the structural and psychosocial drivers of HIV infection will be critical for sustaining biomedical interventions, and necessary to end AIDS

Persistent burden from non-communicable diseases in South Africa needs strong action

Continued effort and politcal will must be directed towards preventing, delaying the onset of and managing non-communicable diseases in South Africa

Emerging trends in non-communicable disease mortality in South Africa, 1997 - 2010

Objectives. National trends in age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in South Africa (SA) were identified between 1997 and 2010.Methods. As part of the second National Burden of Disease Study, vital registration data were used after validity checks, proportional redistribution of missing age, sex and population group, demographic adjustments for registration incompleteness, and identification of misclassified AIDS deaths. Garbage codes were redistributed proportionally to specified codes by age, sex and population group. ASDRs were calculated using mid-year population estimates and the World Health Organization world standard.Results. Of 594 071 deaths in 2010, 38.9% were due to NCDs (42.6% females). ASDRs were 287/100 000 for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), 114/100 000 for cancers (malignant neoplasms), 58/100 000 for chronic respiratory conditions and 52/100 000 for diabetes mellitus. An overall annual decrease of 0.4% was observed resulting from declines in stroke, ischaemic heart disease, oesophageal and lung cancer, asthma and chronic respiratory disease, while increases were observed for diabetes, renal disease, endocrine and nutritional disorders, and breast and prostate cancers. Stroke was the leading NCD cause of death, accounting for 17.5% of total NCD deaths. Compared with those for whites, NCD mortality rates for other population groups were higher at 1.3 for black Africans, 1.4 for Indians and 1.4 for coloureds, but varied by condition.Conclusions. NCDs contribute to premature mortality in SA, threatening socioeconomic development. While NCD mortality rates have decreased slightly, it is necessary to strengthen prevention and healthcare provision and monitor emerging trends in cause-specific mortality to inform these strategies if the target of 2% annual decline is to be achieved

Mortality trends and diff erentials in South Africa from 1997 to 2012: second National Burden of Disease Study

Background The poor health of South Africans is known to be associated with a quadruple disease burden. In the second National Burden of Disease (NBD) study, we aimed to analyse cause of death data for 1997–2012 and develop national, population group, and provincial estimates of the levels and causes of mortality. Method We used underlying cause of death data from death notifi cations for 1997–2012 obtained from Statistics South Africa. These data were adjusted for completeness using indirect demographic techniques for adults and comparison with survey and census estimates for child mortality. A regression approach was used to estimate misclassifi ed HIV/AIDS deaths and so-called garbage codes were proportionally redistributed by age, sex, and population group population group (black African, Indian or Asian descent, white [European descent], and coloured [of mixed ancestry according to the preceding categories]). Injury deaths were estimated from additional data sources. Age-standardised death rates were calculated with mid-year population estimates and the WHO age standard. Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease (IHME GBD) estimates for South Africa were obtained from the IHME GHDx website for comparison. Findings All-cause age-standardised death rates increased rapidly since 1997, peaked in 2006 and then declined, driven by changes in HIV/AIDS. Mortality from tuberculosis, non-communicable diseases, and injuries decreased slightly. In 2012, HIV/AIDS caused the most deaths (29·1%) followed by cerebrovascular disease (7·5%) and lower respiratory infections (4·9%). All-cause age-standardised death rates were 1·7 times higher in the province with the highest death rate compared to the province with the lowest death rate, 2·2 times higher in black Africans compared to whites, and 1·4 times higher in males compared with females. Comparison with the IHME GBD estimates for South Africa revealed substantial diff erences for estimated deaths from all causes, particularly HIV/AIDS and interpersonal violence. Interpretation This study shows the reversal of HIV/AIDS, non-communicable disease, and injury mortality trends in South Africa during the study period. Mortality diff erentials show the importance of social determinants, raise concerns about the quality of health services, and provide relevant information to policy makers for addressing inequalities. Diff erences between GBD estimates for South Africa and this study emphasise the need for more careful calibration of global models with local data

A Decline in New HIV Infections in South Africa: Estimating HIV Incidence from Three National HIV Surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2008

Three national HIV household surveys were conducted in South Africa, in 2002, 2005 and 2008. A novelty of the 2008 survey was the addition of serological testing to ascertain antiretroviral treatment (ART) use.We used a validated mathematical method to estimate the rate of new HIV infections (HIV incidence) in South Africa using nationally representative HIV prevalence data collected in 2002, 2005 and 2008. The observed HIV prevalence levels in 2008 were adjusted for the effect of antiretroviral treatment on survival. The estimated "excess" HIV prevalence due to ART in 2008 was highest among women 25 years and older and among men 30 years and older. In the period 2002-2005, the HIV incidence rate among men and women aged 15-49 years was estimated to be 2.0 new infections each year per 100 susceptible individuals (/100pyar) (uncertainty range: 1.2-3.0/100pyar). The highest incidence rate was among 15-24 year-old women, at 5.5/100pyar (4.5-6.5). In the period 2005-2008, incidence among men and women aged 15-49 was estimated to be 1.3/100 (0.6-2.5/100pyar), although the change from 2002-2005 was not statistically significant. However, the incidence rate among young women aged 15-24 declined by 60% in the same period, to 2.2/100pyar, and this change was statistically significant. There is evidence from the surveys of significant increases in condom use and awareness of HIV status, especially among youth.Our analysis demonstrates how serial measures of HIV prevalence obtained in population-based surveys can be used to estimate national HIV incidence rates. We also show the need to determine the impact of ART on observed HIV prevalence levels. The estimation of HIV incidence and ART exposure is crucial to disentangle the concurrent impact of prevention and treatment programs on HIV prevalence