Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan

Like in many other parts of the world, the glaciers in northern Tien Shan are receding, and the permafrost is thawing. Concomitantly, glacial lakes are developing. Historically, outbursts of these glacial lakes have resulted in severe hazards for infrastructures and livelihood. Multi-temporal space imageries are an ideal means to study and monitor glaciers and glacial lakes over large areas. Geomorphometric analysis and modelling allows to estimate the potential danger for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper presents a comprehensive approach by coupling of remote sensing, geomorphometric analyses aided with GIS modelling for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. We suggest a classification scheme based on an additive ratio scale in order to prioritise sites for detailed investigations. The identification and monitoring of glacial lakes was carried out semi-automatically using band ratioing and the normalised difference water index (NDWI) based on multi-temporal space imagery from the years 1971 to 2008 using Corona, ASTER and Landsat data. The results were manually edited when required. The probability of the growth of a glacial lake was estimated by analysing glacier changes, glacier motion and slope analysis. A permafrost model was developed based on geomorphometric parameters, solar radiation and regionalised temperature conditions which permitted to assess the influence of potential permafrost thawing. Finally, a GIS-based model was applied to simulate the possibly affected area of lake outbursts. The findings of this study indicate an increasing number and area of glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan region. We identified several lakes with a medium to high potential for an outburst after a classification according to their outburst probability and their downstream impact. These lakes should be investigated more in detai

First observations of oblique ionospheric sounding chirp signal in Mexico

The results of the first experiment of oblique ionospheric sounding (OIS) chirp signal reception in Mexico are reported. Maximal and Lowest Observed Frequencies variations were studied under the quiet Space Weather conditions. The diurnal ionospheric variations by OIS signal confirm the results based on GNSS data in the Mexican region. The best HF radio propagation conditions along the considered path are during morning and daytime hours. The multi-hop propagation is frequent. The interlayer propagation modes are present at nighttime

Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan

Like in many other parts of the world, the glaciers in northern Tien Shan are receding, and the permafrost is thawing. Concomitantly, glacial lakes are developing. Historically, outbursts of these glacial lakes have resulted in severe hazards for infrastructures and livelihood. Multi-temporal space imageries are an ideal means to study and monitor glaciers and glacial lakes over large areas. Geomorphometric analysis and modelling allows to estimate the potential danger for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper presents a comprehensive approach by coupling of remote sensing, geomorphometric analyses aided with GIS modelling for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. We suggest a classification scheme based on an additive ratio scale in order to prioritise sites for detailed investigations. The identification and monitoring of glacial lakes was carried out semi-automatically using band ratioing and the normalised difference water index (NDWI) based on multi-temporal space imagery from the years 1971 to 2008 using Corona, ASTER and Landsat data. The results were manually edited when required. The probability of the growth of a glacial lake was estimated by analysing glacier changes, glacier motion and slope analysis. A permafrost model was developed based on geomorphometric parameters, solar radiation and regionalised temperature conditions which permitted to assess the influence of potential permafrost thawing. Finally, a GIS-based model was applied to simulate the possibly affected area of lake outbursts. The findings of this study indicate an increasing number and area of glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan region. We identified several lakes with a medium to high potential for an outburst after a classification according to their outburst probability and their downstream impact. These lakes should be investigated more in detail.</p

Solar Flare Effects Observed over Mexico during 30–31 March 2022

Manifestations of two solar flares of March 2022 were studied over Mexico. The flare effects in the lower ionosphere had a ~3 min delay from the X1.3-flare onset and ~5 min from the M9.6-flare onset. The maximal impact on the HF signal amplitude was ~(14–15) min after the onset of both flares. The X1.3-flare provoked the shortwave fadeout during ~6 min. The effects in the lower ionosphere lasted longer than the flares and the effects at the F2 region and higher altitudes only during the flares. The interpretation of results showed the following. (1) Based on the absorption level estimated with minimum frequency and signal amplitude on ionograms, the major role of X-ray radiation in the electron concentration increase in the lower ionosphere was confirmed. At the same time, the EUV radiation impact on the lower ionosphere cannot be totally discarded. The lower ionosphere recovery began before and lasted after the X1.3-flare end, being more rapid at Eglin than in Mexico. During M9.6-flare, the responses at the two observation points were rather synchronized due to the more similar illumination conditions at the two meridians. (2) According to the dI variations characterizing the F2 region and higher, the M9.6-flare provoked medium-scale and the X1.3-flare provoked both medium- and small-scale ionospheric irregularities. The response duration corresponded to the dI series filtered with (10–20) min windows. The dI curve during the flares was characterized by the И-form and depended more on the active region position and the flare class than on the solar zenith angle. The available data do not allow us to unambiguously identify the reason for the negative dI: the applied filtering procedure or the physical effect. (3) During both flares, the major EUV impact on the lower ionosphere was by the flux at 133.5 nm and on the F2 region and higher altitudes at 25.6 nm. In addition, during the M9.6-flare, EUV 28.4, 30.4 and 121.6 nm spectral bands also played an important role in the F2 response. During the X1.3-flare, the EUV 25.6 nm flux and X-ray flux impacts on the F2 region were of the same level. The weakest impact was caused by the emission in the EUV 28.4 nm spectral band on the absorption in the lower ionosphere during both flares and on the electron density in the F2 region and higher during the X1.3-flare

Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan

Like in many other parts of the world, the glaciers in northern Tien Shan are receding, and the permafrost is thawing. Concomitantly, glacial lakes are developing. Historically, outbursts of these glacial lakes have resulted in severe hazards for infrastructures and livelihood. Multi-temporal space imageries are an ideal means to study and monitor glaciers and glacial lakes over large areas. Geomorphometric analysis and modelling allows to estimate the potential danger for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper presents a comprehensive approach by coupling of remote sensing, geomorphometric analyses aided with GIS modelling for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. We suggest a classification scheme based on an additive ratio scale in order to prioritise sites for detailed investigations. The identification and monitoring of glacial lakes was carried out semi-automatically using band ratioing and the normalised difference water index (NDWI) based on multi-temporal space imagery from the years 1971 to 2008 using Corona, ASTER and Landsat data. The results were manually edited when required. The probability of the growth of a glacial lake was estimated by analysing glacier changes, glacier motion and slope analysis. A permafrost model was developed based on geomorphometric parameters, solar radiation and regionalised temperature conditions which permitted to assess the influence of potential permafrost thawing. Finally, a GIS-based model was applied to simulate the possibly affected area of lake outbursts. The findings of this study indicate an increasing number and area of glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan region. We identified several lakes with a medium to high potential for an outburst after a classification according to their outburst probability and their downstream impact. These lakes should be investigated more in detail