COVID-19 mortality attenuated during widespread Omicron transmission, Denmark, 2020 to 2022

BACKGROUND: It sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count. AIM: Our aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021. METHODS: We compared the 30-day COVID-19 death count with the observed mortality using three alternative mortality estimation methods; (i) a mathematical model to correct the 30-day COVID-19 death count for coincidental deaths, (ii) the Causes of Death Registry (CDR) and (iii) all-cause excess mortality. RESULTS: There was a substantial peak in the 30-day COVID-19 death count following the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021. However, there was also a substantial change in the proportion of coincidental deaths, increasing from 10–20% to around 40% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths. The high number of 30-day COVID-19 deaths was not reflected in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the CDR and the all-cause excess mortality surveillance. CONCLUSION: Our analysis showed a distinct change in the mortality pattern following the introduction of Omicron in late 2021 with a markedly higher proportion of people estimated to have died with, rather than of, COVID-19 compared with mortality patterns observed earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating alternative mortality surveillance methods to more correctly estimate the burden of COVID-19 as the pandemic continues to evolve

Relative vaccine protection, disease severity, and symptoms associated with the SARS-CoV-2 omicron subvariant BA.2.86 and descendant JN.1 in Denmark: a nationwide observational study

BACKGROUND: During the 2023 Danish COVID-19 vaccination campaign, an updated monovalent mRNA vaccine targeting the SARS-CoV-2 omicron XBB.1.5 subvariant was administered. However, the rapid spread of a genetically divergent omicron BA.2.86 subvariant, JN.1, since September, 2023, poses potential challenges due to its rapid dominance and possible immune escape. Using national electronic health registry data from all regions of Denmark, we aimed to investigate whether the SARS-CoV-2 subvariant BA.2.86, and its descendant JN.1, differed from other circulating variants in terms of their ability to escape vaccine protection, the risk of infection leading to severe disease, and self-reported symptoms among infected people. METHODS: In this observational study, we included all residents of Denmark aged 65 years and older who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2023, and for whom genomic data on the SARS-CoV-2 variant that had caused their infection were available. Data from clinical testing, sentinel, and self-sampling-based surveillance were linked with national electronic civil, vaccination, and hospitalisation registers. The relative protection of the XBB.1.5 updated COVID-19 vaccine against BA.2.86 infections versus infections with other variants was analysed in a case-only study, and the relative risk of hospitalisation in people infected with BA.2.86 versus other variants was analysed in a case-control study. Both analyses were adjusted for time, comorbidities, and previous vaccination history, among other potential confounders. Additionally, prevalence patterns in self-reported symptoms among people of all ages infected with SARS-CoV-2 were reported separately by subvariant. FINDINGS: Of the 7581 people in Denmark aged 65 years or older who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR during the study period, 5882 (78%) samples were eligible for sequencing. 3862 (66%) of these passed quality control, were successfully sequenced, and the SARS-CoV-2 variant and subvariant identified, and these individuals were included in the study. Of these 3862 people, 2184 (57%) were infected with the BA.2.86 subvariant, including 1615 JN.1 infections. Participants infected with BA.2.86 had 1·52 (95% CI 1·25-1·86) times the odds, and those infected with JN.1 had 1·60 (1·27-2·02) times the odds, of having received the XBB.1.5 vaccine at least 7 days before their infection compared with participants infected with a non-BA.2.86 variant. The severity analysis showed no evidence of association between the infecting variant and the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation (odds ratio 1·04 [95% CI 0·86-1·26] for BA.2.86 and 1·07 [0·85-1·34] for JN.1). Similarly, there was no evidence of differences in self-reported symptoms by variant strain. INTERPRETATION: Compared with other SARS-CoV-2 variants, BA.2.86 and the JN.1 sublineage were less sensitive to vaccine-induced immune protection from the XBB.1.5 updated COVID-19 vaccine; however, we found no evidence that infection with BA.2.86 or JN.1 resulted in increased disease severity or different symptom profiles. Although less effective against the new variants, XBB.1.5 vaccination remains protective and reduces the risk of infection and COVID-19 disease. FUNDING: The Danish Government and the EU's EU4Health programme

Malaria in Eritrean migrants newly arrived in seven European countries, 2011 to 2016

Global migration has resulted in a large number of asylum applications in Europe. In 2014, clusters of Plasmodium vivax cases were reported among newly arrived Eritreans. This study aimed to assess malaria among Eritrean migrants in Europe from 2011 to 2016. We reviewed European migration numbers and malaria surveillance data for seven countries (Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) which received 44,050 (94.3%) of 46,730 Eritreans seeking asylum in Europe in 2014. The overall number of malaria cases, predominantly P. vivax, increased significantly in 2014 compared to previous years, with the largest increases in Germany (44 P. vivax cases in 2013 vs 294 in 2014, p < 0.001) and Sweden (18 in 2013 vs 205 in 2014, p < 0.001). Overall, malaria incidence in Eritreans increased from 1–5 to 25 cases per 1,000, and was highest in male teenagers (50 cases/1,000). In conclusion, an exceptional increase of malaria cases occurred in Europe in 2014 and 2015, due to rising numbers of Eritreans with high incidence of P. vivax arriving in Europe. Our results demonstrate potential for rapid changes in imported malaria patterns, highlighting the need for improved awareness, surveillance efforts and timely healthcare in migrants.Peer Reviewe

Feasibility of randomizing Danish citizens aged 65-79 years to high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine vs. standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine in a pragmatic registry-based setting:rationale and design of the DANFLU-1 Trial

BACKGROUND: High-dose influenza vaccines provide better protection against influenza infection than standard-dose in persons aged 65 years and above; however, in most countries, high-dose vaccines are not widely implemented. Assessing the relative effectiveness of high-dose compared to standard-dose vaccines on hospitalizations and mortality would enable more robust public health and cost-effectiveness estimates. This study aims to investigate the feasibility of conducting a pragmatic randomized clinical trial in Denmark comparing high-dose to standard-dose vaccines utilizing existing vaccination infrastructure and the Danish nationwide health registries for data collection. METHODS: The DANFLU-1 trial (NCT05048589) is a pragmatic, open-label, active-controlled randomized trial randomizing Danish citizens aged 65–79 years to either high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine or standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine. The study utilizes the infrastructure of a private vaccination provider (Danske Lægers Vaccinations Service) for recruitment, inclusion, randomization, and vaccination. All collection of baseline and follow-up data including safety monitoring is performed centrally by the Department of Cardiology at Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark using the Danish nationwide health registries. The study aims to include 40,000 participants during the 2021/2022 influenza season. The primary endpoints address feasibility and include the number of participants enrolled, randomization balance, and representativeness compared to the Danish general population. Relative vaccine effectiveness will also be assessed, however, this feasibility study is not powered for clinical outcomes and may be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. DISCUSSION: The DANFLU-1 study is investigating the feasibility of conducting a large-scale pragmatic clinical trial in Denmark utilizing existing infrastructure and the Danish nationwide registries. This will provide valuable insight, especially for potential future fully powered vaccine trials, but also for trials wishing to investigate other interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT05048589, registered September 17, 2021

Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate by age and comorbidity status using antibody screening of blood donors during the COVID-19 epidemic in Denmark

BACKGROUND: Studies presenting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection fatality rate (IFR) for healthy individuals are warranted. We estimate IFR by age and comorbidity status using data from a large serosurvey among Danish blood donors and nationwide data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality. METHODS: Danish blood donors aged 17–69 years donating blood October 2020–February 2021 were tested with a commercial SARS-CoV-2 total antibody assay. IFR was estimated for weeks 11 to 42, 2020 and week 43, 2020 to week 6, 2021, representing the first 2 waves of COVID-19 epidemic in Denmark. RESULTS: In total, 84944 blood donors were tested for antibodies. The seroprevalence was 2% in October 2020 and 7% in February 2021. Among 3898039 Danish residents aged 17–69 years, 249 deaths were recorded. The IFR was low for people <51 years without comorbidity during the 2 waves (combined IFR=3.36 per 100000 infections). The IFR was below 3‰ for people aged 61–69 years without comorbidity. IFR increased with age and comorbidity but declined from the first to second wave. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide study, the IFR was very low among people <51 years without comorbidity