17 research outputs found
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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Does gp350 Antibody Protect Pediatric Kidney Transplant Recipients from Epstein-Barr Virus Diseases?
Faculty Advisor: Dr. Henry H. BalfourThis research was supported by the Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program (UROP)
Media Appeals by Pediatric Patients for Living Donors and the Impact on a Transplant Center
Pediatric Nephrology and Rheumatology Practice Patterns in Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis: A Midwest Pediatric Nephrology Consortium Study
Objective To assess practice pattern similarities and differences amongst pediatric rheumatologists and nephrologists in the management of pediatric Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis (GPA). Methods A voluntary survey was distributed to the Midwest Pediatric Nephrology Consortium Group (MWPNC) and an international pediatric rheumatology email listserv in 2016-2017. Data were collected on general practice characteristics and preferences for induction management under three clinical scenarios (A-C): newly diagnosed GPA with glomerulonephritis, GPA with rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis, and GPA with pulmonary hemorrhage. In addition, individual preferences for GPA maintenance medications, disease monitoring, and management of GPA with end-stage renal disease were ascertained. Results There was a 68% response rate from the MWPNC membership and equal numbers of rheumatology respondents. Survey results revealed Rituximab plus Cyclophosphamide is a more common induction choice for rheumatologists than nephrologists in induction Scenarios A and B, whereas Cyclophosphamide is more commonly chosen by nephrologists in Scenario A. Plasmapheresis rates increased for Scenarios A, B, and C for both specialties, but were overall low. There was no clear consensus on the duration of maintenance therapy nor diagnostic work-up. Rheumatologists more frequently chose Rituximab for maintenance and induction compared to nephrologists. There was also a higher than expected proportion of Mycophenolate Mofetil use for both specialties. Conclusion This survey has revealed important differences in the way that rheumatologists and nephrologists manage this disease. It highlights the need for well-designed clinical trials in pediatric GPA patients and reveals that both specialties must be represented during consensus-building and clinical trial design efforts.PubMedScopu
Practice patterns and influence of allograft nephrectomy in pediatric kidney re- transplantation: A pediatric nephrology research consortium study
IntroductionThere are no guidelines regarding management of failed pediatric renal transplants.Materials & MethodsWe performed a first of its kind multicenter study assessing prevalence of transplant nephrectomy, patient characteristics, and outcomes in pediatric renal transplant recipients with graft failure from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2016.ResultsFourteen centers contributed data on 186 pediatric recipients with failed transplants. The 76 recipients that underwent transplant nephrectomy were not significantly different from the 110 without nephrectomy in donor or recipient demographics. Fifty- three percent of graft nephrectomies were within a year of transplant. Graft tenderness prompted transplant nephrectomy in 91% (PÂ <Â .001). Patients that underwent nephrectomy were more likely to have a prior diagnosis of rejection within 3Â months (43% vs 29%; PÂ =Â .04). Nephrectomy of allografts did not affect time to re- listing, donor source at re- transplant but significantly decreased time to (PÂ =Â .009) and incidence (PÂ =Â .0002) of complete cessation of immunosuppression post- graft failure. Following transplant nephrectomy, recipients were significantly more likely to have rejection after re- transplant (18% vs 7%; PÂ =Â .03) and multiple rejections in first year after re- transplant (7% vs 1%; PÂ =Â .03).ConclusionsPractices pertaining to failed renal allografts are inconsistent- 40% of failed pediatric renal allografts underwent nephrectomy. Graft tenderness frequently prompted transplant nephrectomy. There is no apparent benefit to graft nephrectomy related to sensitization; but timing / frequency of immunosuppression withdrawal is significantly different with slightly increased risk for rejection following re- transplant.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/169276/1/petr13974.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/169276/2/petr13974_am.pd
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Acute kidney injury requiring kidney replacement therapy in childhood lupus nephritis: a cohort study of the Pediatric Nephrology Research Consortium and Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in lupus nephritis (LN) and a risk factor for development of chronic kidney disease. In adults with LN, AKI severity correlates with the incidence of kidney failure and patient survival. Data on AKI outcomes in children with LN, particularly those requiring kidney replacement therapy (KRT), are limited.
A multicenter, retrospective cohort study was performed in children diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 with LN and AKI stage 3 treated with dialysis (AKI stage 3D). Descriptive statistics were used to characterize demographics, clinical data, and kidney biopsy findings; treatment data for LN were not included. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of these variables with kidney failure.
Fifty-nine patients (mean age 14.3 years, 84.7% female) were identified. The most common KRT indications were fluid overload (86.4%) and elevated blood urea nitrogen/creatinine (74.6%). Mean follow-up duration was 3.9 ± 2.9 years. AKI recovery without progression to kidney failure occurred in 37.3% of patients. AKI recovery with later progression to kidney failure occurred in 25.4% of patients, and there was no kidney recovery from AKI in 35.6% of patients. Older age, severe (> 50%) tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis, and National Institutes of Health (NIH) chronicity index score > 4 on kidney biopsy were associated with kidney failure.
Children with LN and AKI stage 3D have a high long-term risk of kidney failure. Severe tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis at the time of AKI, but not AKI duration, are predictive of kidney disease progression. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information
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The Preserving Kidney Function in Children With CKD (PRESERVE) Study: Rationale, Design, and Methods
PRESERVE seeks to provide new knowledge to inform shared decision-making regarding blood pressure (BP) management for pediatric chronic kidney disease (CKD). PRESERVE will compare the effectiveness of alternative strategies for monitoring and treating hypertension on preserving kidney function; expand the Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network (PCORnet) common data model by adding pediatric- and kidney-specific variables and linking electronic health record data to other kidney disease databases; and assess the lived experiences of patients related to BP management.
Multicenter retrospective cohort study (clinical outcomes) and cross-sectional study (patient-reported outcomes [PROs]).
PRESERVE will include approximately 20,000 children between January 2009-December 2022 with mild-moderate CKD from 15 health care institutions that participate in 6 PCORnet Clinical Research Networks (PEDSnet, STAR, GPC, PaTH, CAPRiCORN, and OneFlorida+). The inclusion criteria were≥1 nephrologist visit and≥2 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values in the range of 30 to<90mL/min/1.73m2 separated by≥90 days without an intervening value≥90mL/min/1.73m2 and no prior dialysis or kidney transplant.
BP measurements (clinic-based and 24-hour ambulatory BP); urine protein; and antihypertensive treatment by therapeutic class.
The primary outcome is a composite event of a 50% reduction in eGFR, eGFR of<15mL/min/1.73m2, long-term dialysis or kidney transplant. Secondary outcomes include change in eGFR, adverse events, and PROs.
Longitudinal models for dichotomous (proportional hazards or accelerated failure time) and continuous (generalized linear mixed models) clinical outcomes; multivariable linear regression for PROs. We will evaluate heterogeneity of treatment effect by CKD etiology and degree of proteinuria and will examine variation in hypertension management and outcomes based on socio-demographics.
Causal inference limited by observational analyses.
PRESERVE will leverage the PCORnet infrastructure to conduct large-scale observational studies that address BP management knowledge gaps for pediatric CKD, focusing on outcomes that are meaningful to patients.
Hypertension is a major modifiable contributor to loss of kidney function in chronic kidney disease (CKD). The purpose of PRESERVE is to provide evidence to inform shared decision-making regarding blood pressure management for children with CKD. PRESERVE is a consortium of 16 health care institutions in Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network (PCORnet), the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network, and includes electronic health record data for>19,000 children with CKD. PRESERVE will (1) expand the PCORnet infrastructure for research in pediatric CKD by adding kidney-specific variables and linking electronic health record data to other kidney disease databases; (2) compare the effectiveness of alternative strategies for monitoring and treating hypertension on preserving kidney function; and (3) assess the lived experiences of patients and caregivers related to blood pressure management
Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Modeling and Simulation in Civil Engineering
This conference proceedings contains articles on the various research ideas of the academic community and technical researchers presented at the 6th International Conference on Modeling and Simulation in Civil Engineering (ICMSC 2022). ICMSC 2022 was organized by the Department of Civil Engineering, TKM College of Engineering, Kollam, Kerala, India on December 1-3, 2022. The main aim of this conference is to bring together leading academicians, researchers, technocrats, practitioners, and students to exchange and share their experiences and research outputs on all aspects of Civil Engineering, especially related to the modeling and simulation in Civil Engineering.
Conference Title: 6th International Conference on Modeling and Simulation in Civil EngineeringConference Acronym: ICMSC 2022Conference Date: 1-3 December 2022Conference Location: IndiaConference Organizer: Department of Civil Engineering, TKM College of Engineering, Kollam, Kerala, Indi
Congenital rubella syndrome surveillance in India, 2016–21: Analysis of five years surveillance data
Background: In India, facility-based surveillance for congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) was initiated in 2016 to estimate the burden and monitor the progress made in rubella control. We analyzed the surveillance data for 2016–2021 from 14 sentinel sites to describe the epidemiology of CRS. Method: We analyzed the surveillance data to describe the distribution of suspected and laboratory confirmed CRS patients by time, place and person characteristics. We compared clinical signs of laboratory confirmed CRS and discarded case-patients to find independent predictors of CRS using logistic regression analysis and developed a risk prediction model. Results: During 2016–21, surveillance sites enrolled 3940 suspected CRS case-patients (Age 3.5 months, SD: 3.5). About one-fifth (n = 813, 20.6%) were enrolled during newborn examination. Of the suspected CRS patients, 493 (12.5%) had laboratory evidence of rubella infection. The proportion of laboratory confirmed CRS cases declined from 26% in 2017 to 8.7% in 2021. Laboratory confirmed patients had higher odds of having hearing impairment (Odds ratio [OR] = 9.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.6–16.2), cataract (OR = 7.8, 95% CI: 5.4–11.2), pigmentary retinopathy (OR = 6.7, 95 CI: 3.3–13.6), structural heart defect with hearing impairment (OR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.2–12.2) and glaucoma (OR = 3.1, 95% CI: 1.2–8.1). Nomogram, along with a web version, was developed. Conclusions: Rubella continues to be a significant public health issue in India. The declining trend of test positivity among suspected CRS case-patients needs to be monitored through continued surveillance in these sentinel sites