Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Does gp350 Antibody Protect Pediatric Kidney Transplant Recipients from Epstein-Barr Virus Diseases?

Faculty Advisor: Dr. Henry H. BalfourThis research was supported by the Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program (UROP)

Pediatric Nephrology and Rheumatology Practice Patterns in Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis: A Midwest Pediatric Nephrology Consortium Study

Objective To assess practice pattern similarities and differences amongst pediatric rheumatologists and nephrologists in the management of pediatric Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis (GPA). Methods A voluntary survey was distributed to the Midwest Pediatric Nephrology Consortium Group (MWPNC) and an international pediatric rheumatology email listserv in 2016-2017. Data were collected on general practice characteristics and preferences for induction management under three clinical scenarios (A-C): newly diagnosed GPA with glomerulonephritis, GPA with rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis, and GPA with pulmonary hemorrhage. In addition, individual preferences for GPA maintenance medications, disease monitoring, and management of GPA with end-stage renal disease were ascertained. Results There was a 68% response rate from the MWPNC membership and equal numbers of rheumatology respondents. Survey results revealed Rituximab plus Cyclophosphamide is a more common induction choice for rheumatologists than nephrologists in induction Scenarios A and B, whereas Cyclophosphamide is more commonly chosen by nephrologists in Scenario A. Plasmapheresis rates increased for Scenarios A, B, and C for both specialties, but were overall low. There was no clear consensus on the duration of maintenance therapy nor diagnostic work-up. Rheumatologists more frequently chose Rituximab for maintenance and induction compared to nephrologists. There was also a higher than expected proportion of Mycophenolate Mofetil use for both specialties. Conclusion This survey has revealed important differences in the way that rheumatologists and nephrologists manage this disease. It highlights the need for well-designed clinical trials in pediatric GPA patients and reveals that both specialties must be represented during consensus-building and clinical trial design efforts.PubMedScopu

Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Modeling and Simulation in Civil Engineering

This conference proceedings contains articles on the various research ideas of the academic community and technical researchers presented at the 6th International Conference on Modeling and Simulation in Civil Engineering (ICMSC 2022). ICMSC 2022 was organized by the Department of Civil Engineering, TKM College of Engineering, Kollam, Kerala, India on December 1-3, 2022. The main aim of this conference is to bring together leading academicians, researchers, technocrats, practitioners, and students to exchange and share their experiences and research outputs on all aspects of Civil Engineering, especially related to the modeling and simulation in Civil Engineering.  Conference Title: 6th International Conference on Modeling and Simulation in Civil EngineeringConference Acronym:  ICMSC 2022Conference Date: 1-3 December 2022Conference Location: IndiaConference Organizer: Department of Civil Engineering, TKM College of Engineering, Kollam, Kerala, Indi

Congenital rubella syndrome surveillance in India, 2016–21: Analysis of five years surveillance data

Background: In India, facility-based surveillance for congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) was initiated in 2016 to estimate the burden and monitor the progress made in rubella control. We analyzed the surveillance data for 2016–2021 from 14 sentinel sites to describe the epidemiology of CRS. Method: We analyzed the surveillance data to describe the distribution of suspected and laboratory confirmed CRS patients by time, place and person characteristics. We compared clinical signs of laboratory confirmed CRS and discarded case-patients to find independent predictors of CRS using logistic regression analysis and developed a risk prediction model. Results: During 2016–21, surveillance sites enrolled 3940 suspected CRS case-patients (Age 3.5 months, SD: 3.5). About one-fifth (n = 813, 20.6%) were enrolled during newborn examination. Of the suspected CRS patients, 493 (12.5%) had laboratory evidence of rubella infection. The proportion of laboratory confirmed CRS cases declined from 26% in 2017 to 8.7% in 2021. Laboratory confirmed patients had higher odds of having hearing impairment (Odds ratio [OR] = 9.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.6–16.2), cataract (OR = 7.8, 95% CI: 5.4–11.2), pigmentary retinopathy (OR = 6.7, 95 CI: 3.3–13.6), structural heart defect with hearing impairment (OR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.2–12.2) and glaucoma (OR = 3.1, 95% CI: 1.2–8.1). Nomogram, along with a web version, was developed. Conclusions: Rubella continues to be a significant public health issue in India. The declining trend of test positivity among suspected CRS case-patients needs to be monitored through continued surveillance in these sentinel sites

Proceedings of International Web Conference in Civil Engineering for a Sustainable Planet

This proceeding contains articles of the various research ideas of the academic community and practitioners accepted at the "International Web Conference in Civil Engineering for a Sustainable Planet (ICCESP 2021)". ICCESP 2021 is being Organized by the Habilete Learning Solutions, Kollam in Collaboration with American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), TKM College of Engineering, Kollam, and Baselios Mathews II College of Engineering, Kollam, Kerala, India. Conference Title: International Web Conference in Civil Engineering for a Sustainable PlanetConference Acronym: ICCESP 2021Conference Date: 05–06 March 2021Conference Location: Online (Virtual Mode)Conference Organizer: Habilete Learning Solutions, Kollam, Kerala, IndiaCollaborators: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), TKM College of Engineering, Kollam, and Baselios Mathews II College of Engineering, Kollam, Kerala, India