Coupling a distributed grid based hydrological model and MM5 meteorological model for flooding alert mapping

International audienceThe increased number of extreme rainfall events seems to be one of the common feature of climate change signal all over the world (Easterlin et al., 2000; Meehl et al., 2000). In the last few years a large number of floods caused by extreme meteorological events has been observed over the river basins of Mediterranean area and they mainly affected small basins (few hundreds until few thousands of square kilometres of drainage area) . A strategic goal of applied meteorology is now to try to predict with high spatial resolution the segments of drainage network where floods may occur. A possible way to reach this aim is the coupling of meteorological mesoscale model with high resolution hydrological model. In this work few case studies of observed floods in the Italian Mediterranean area will be presented. It is shown how a distributed hydrological model, using the precipitation fields predicted by MM5 meteorological model, is able to highlight the area where the major floods may occur

Thermally driven circulation in a region of complex topography: comparison of wind-profiling radar measurements and MM5 numerical predictions

The diurnal variation of regional wind patterns in the complex terrain of Central Italy was investigated for summer fair-weather conditions and winter time periods using a radar wind profiler. The profiler is located on a site where interaction between the complex topography and land-surface produces a variety of thermally and dynamically driven wind systems. The observational data set, collected for a period of one year, was used first to describe the diurnal evolution of thermal driven winds, second to validate the Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) that is a three-dimensional numerical model. This type of analysis was focused on the near-surface wind observation, since thermally driven winds occur in the lower atmosphere. According to the valley wind theory expectations, the site – located on the left sidewall of the valley (looking up valley) – experiences a clockwise turning with time. Same characteristics in the behavior were established in both the experimental and numerical results. <P style="line-height: 20px;"> Because the thermally driven flows can have some depth and may be influenced mainly by model errors, as a third step the analysis focuses on a subset of cases to explore four different MM5 Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations. The reason is to test how the results are sensitive to the selected PBL parameterization, and to identify the better parameterization if it is possible. For this purpose we analysed the MM5 output for the whole PBL levels. The chosen PBL parameterizations are: 1) Gayno-Seaman; 2) Medium-Range Forecast; 3) Mellor-Yamada scheme as used in the ETA model; and 4) Blackadar

Artificial neural-network technique for precipitation nowcasting from satellite imagery

The term nowcasting reflects the need of timely and accurate predictions of risky situations related to the development of severe meteorological events. In this work the objective is the very short term prediction of the rainfall field from geostationary satellite imagery entirely based on neural network approach. The very short-time prediction (or nowcasting) process consists of two steps: first, the infrared radiance field measured from geostationary satellite (Meteosat 7) is projected ahead in time (30 min or 1 h); secondly, the projected radiances are used to estimate the rainfall field by means of a calibrated microwave-based combined algorithm. The methodology is discussed and its accuracy is quantified by means of error indicators. An application to a satellite observation of a rainfall event over Central Italy is finally shown and evaluated

Direct Evidence of a Slow‐Slip Transient Modulating the Spatiotemporal and Frequency‐Magnitude Earthquake Distribution: Insights From the Armutlu Peninsula, Northwestern Turkey

Earthquakes and slow‐slip events interact, however, detailed studies investigating their interplay are still limited. We generate the highest resolution microseismicity catalog to date for the northern Armutlu Peninsula in a ∼1‐year period to perform a detailed seismicity distribution analysis and correlate the results with a local, geodetically observed slow‐slip transient within the same period. Seismicity shows a transition of cluster‐type behavior from swarm‐like to burst‐like, accompanied by an increasing relative proportion of clustered (non‐Poissonian) relative to background (Poissonian) seismicity and gradually decreasing b‐value as the geodetically observed slow‐slip transient ends. The observed slow‐slip transient decay correlates with gradually increasing effective‐stress‐drop values. The observed correlation between the b‐value and geodetic transient highlights the influence of aseismic deformation on seismic deformation and the impact of slow‐slip transients on local seismic hazard

Serial assessment of the electrocardiographic strain pattern for prediction of new‐onset heart failure during antihypertensive treatment: the LIFE study

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106144/1/ejhfhfq224.pd

Ambulatory heart rate is underestimated when measured by an ambulatory blood pressure device

Objective: To test the validity of ambulatory heart rate (HR) assessment with a cuff ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) monitor. Design: Cross-instrument comparison of HR measured intermittently by a cuff ABP monitor (SpaceLabs, Redmond, Washington, USA), with HR derived from continuous electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings (1) in a controlled laboratory experiment and (2) during long-term recording in a true naturalistic setting. Participants: Six normotensive subjects participated in the laboratory study. A total of 109 male white-collar workers underwent ambulatory monitoring, of which 30 were mildly hypertensive. Methods: Four different laboratory conditions (postures: lying, sitting, standing, walking), repeated twice, were used to assess the short-term effects of cuff inflation on the HR. To test the actual ambulatory validity, participants simultaneously wore a continuous HR recorder and the ABP monitor from early morning to late evening on 2 workdays and one non-workday. Diary and vertical accelerometery information was used to obtain periods of fixed posture and (physical) activity across which HR from both devices was compared. Results: Laboratory results showed that the ABP device reliably detected HR during blood pressure measurement, but that this HR was systematically lower than the HR directly before and after the blood pressure measurement. The ambulatory study confirmed this systematic underestimation of the ongoing HR, but additionally showed that its amount increased when subjects went from sitting to standing to light physical activity (2.9; 4.3 and 9.1 bpm (beats/min), respectively). In spite of this activity-dependent underestimation of HR, the correlation of continuous ECG and intermittent ABP-derived HR was high (median r = 0.81). Also, underestimation was not different for normotensives and mild hypertensives. Conclusions: A direct effect of cuff inflation leads to the underestimation of ongoing HR during cuff-based ABP measurement. Additional underestimation of HR occurs during periods with physical activity, probably due to behavioural freezing during blood pressure measurements. HR underestimation was not affected by hypertensive state. When its limitations are taken into account, ABP-derived ambulatory HR can be considered a reliable and valid measure. © 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins