Direct Measures of Time Preference

This work constitutes an attempt to estimate time preference factors in a direct way from survey data, without relying on consumption data and on particular estimation techniques. By using microeconomic data obtained from the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth (for the year 2000) and a simple second order Taylor expansion of a generic utility function we will compute, for each agent, a utility discount factor. The interesting features of the dataset will also enable us to relate discount factors to a large number of social, economic, and demographic variables. Agents do appear to discount future utility flows at rates which vary across age, education, civil status, income and wealth situations; more importantly, it is suggested that risk and market incompleteness should be considered as important determinants of time preference parameters.

A note on the relevance of prudence in precautionary saving.

The aim of this note is to suggest that prudence, i.e. convexity of marginal utility, can only explain a small share of precautionary savings, which we may define as savings generated by variance in income. Therefore, if we are willing to admit that precautionary savings constitute a sizable share of total savings, other factors should be called for. We present a few examples showing that risk aversion might constitute one such factor.

International risk sharing and globalization

The main research question of this empirical work is whether or not globalization, in its various forms, has had an impact upon international risk sharing. The empirical literature so far has only investigated on one aspect of globalization: economic and financial integration. By decomposing globalization in its economic, political and social aspects, and using a standard framework of consumption insurance tests to gauge the extent of risk sharing among countries, we obtain some interesting results. One of the main findings is that economic and social integration help better cope with idiosyncratic risk, but also that without political integration this might result in an increasing exposure to systemic (uninsurable) risk.International risk sharing; globalization; social and political integration

On international risk sharing and financial globalization: some gloomy evidence

By means of panel and time series regression analyses, and by resorting to a variance decomposition due to Asdrubali et al. (1996) we show that income flows to and from abroad did not play, in general, a large risk sharing role for a pool of EU countries over the horizon 1976-2007. This is particularly true in a pre-globalization period, but remains true for some countries, even in the finance globalization era. We then extend the analysis to consider a measure of cash flow, instead of income, available for consumption, and observe that capital flows to and from abroad have played a largely destabilizing role, to an extent that one might have not expected beforehand. Key to this result is also the study of asymmetries in smoothing positive and negative shocks by the different possible channels. These findings seem to provide some useful insights onto the origin of the recent global financial crisisRisk Sharing, Financial Globalization, Capital Flows

Labor Income and Risky Assets under Market Incompleteness: Evidence from Italian Data

Theory suggests that uninsurable income risk induces individuals to accumulate assets as a precautionary reserve of value. Most assets, however, bear rate of return risk, that can be diversified only if every asset is traded by a large number of individuals and arbitrage is frictionless. Using Italian micro-data, we find evidence of income and asset risks that affect consumption. Italian households are particularly well insured against illness but not against job losses. Moreover, we detect a positive, yet weak, effect of asset holding on the variability of consumption streams across households.incomplete markets, consumption insurance, precautionary saving, financial markets, equity premium puzzle

International investment positions and risk sharing: an empirical analysis on the coordinated portfolio investment survey

By using data from all available waves of the IMF Coordinated Portfolio In- vestment Surveys, we explore the dynamics of the determinants of cross portfolio investments. The main aim of our analysis, however, is to understand whether a diversification motive can also be found, among the various determinants. We find strong evidence that, indeed, the correlation between the idiosyncratic components of gdp growth, as well as the correlation between stock returns between pair of coun- tries, that we consider as proxies for diversification, are relevant to explain bilateral portfolio holdings, when unobserved heterogeneity is properly taken into account, by means of a fixed effect, panel estimation (where the fixed effects refer to pair of countries, rather than countries in isolation). Interestingly, the same results, cannot be retrieved from cross section estimations. It also turns out that the diversification motive is less relevant, if at all, in choosing whether or not to invest in a particular area

Family dissolution and precautionary savings: an empirical analysis

The main research question of this paper is whether or not the risk of family disruption has an impact on the consumption/saving decisions of households. Although little empirical work exists in this area, often presenting indirect evidence, the theory is divided over the effect of family risk over saving and wealth accumulation. By using data from the Italian Survey on Households Income and Wealth, we build a probabilistic model to assess the probability of marital splitting, and then we insert this probability as a distinct or interacted regressor, in a statistically consistent way, into a linear model of consumption. Furthermore, we study the differential behaviour, in terms of consumption/saving choices, of couples experiencing marital splitting over the subsequent two years. The main result of our analysis is that family disruption risk generates precautionary savings, reducing current consumption. In fact, according to our estimates, on average, the risk of divorce generates an amount of additional yearly precautionary savings of around 800 euros at constant prices of the year 2000, which represents 11% of overall household savings.Family disruption risk; Precautionary saving; Risk sharing

Tax incentives and household investment in complementary pension insurance: some recent evidence from the Italian experience

We show, by a simple difference-in-difference methodology that, contrary to prior research, robustly raising the deductibility limit associated to pension fund holdings in Italy did not succeed in boosting households’ contributions to this form of savings. Some other empirical finding also suggest that this policy measure may have not even increased the average amount of first time contributors to such funds. In view of the specific features of the Italian market for complementary insurance (relatively young and less developed), these empirical results might be of interest to policymakers acting in countries with similar features (for instance, some of the more recent EU members).Pension funds; fiscal incentives; difference-in-difference

Peculiar and Unusual Drowning in Waste Oil from Motor Vehicles: Case Report

Drowning is one of the most frequent causes of accidental or suicidal death, and more rarely it is associated with a homicide. Cases of drowning in water or in the sea are common. The authors report an unusual and peculiar case of drowning, that of a woman who accidentally fell inside a collection tank of waste oil of motor vehicles

The Wealth Decumulation Behavior of the Retired Elderly in Italy: The Importance of Bequest Motives and Precautionary Saving

In this paper, we analyze the wealth accumulation and saving behavior of the retired elderly in Italy using micro data from the “Survey of Italian Households\u27 Income and Wealth,” a panel survey of households conducted every two years by the Bank of Italy. We find that, on average, the retired elderly in Italy are decumulating their wealth (dissaving) but that their wealth decumulation rates are much slower than expected.Moreover, we also find that more than 40 percent of the retired elderly in Italy are continuing to accumulate wealth and that more than 80 percent are doing positive amounts of saving. Thus, the Wealth Decumulation Puzzle (the tendency of the retired elderly to decumulate their wealth more slowly than expected) appears to apply in the case of Italy, as it does in most other countries, before as well as after the Global Financial Crisis.Moreover, our regression analysis of the determinants of the wealth accumulation and saving behavior of the retired elderly in Italy suggests that the lower than expected wealth decumulation rates and dissaving of the retired elderly in Italy is due largely to bequest motives and saving for precautionary purposes, especially the former