外国人受入れの財政への影響と解決策 ～平均年収を下回る外国人の永住は財政にマイナス

「外国人受入れは財政にプラス」とされがちだ。これは、近年増加している在留外国人の多くは「技術・人文知識・国際業務」（ホワイトカラーの就労資格）、「特定技能」、「技能実習」などの在留資格で2、概して年齢が若く、したがって税・保険料を支払う一方、医療費などはあまりかからないためだ。 しかし、当たり前だが、外国人も年をとる。今は若い外国人が高齢期まで日本で過ごすとすれば、高齢期には税・保険料の貢献はわずかになり、一方で多額の社会保障負担がかかる。そして、日本の現行制度では、就労資格で一定年数在留すれば永住資格を得る可能性があり3、また、実際に永住を希望する外国人は相当比率を占めるのだから4、「外国人も年をとる」ことを想定しなければならない。この場合、トータルで「財政にプラス」になるかどうかは定かではない。 また、外国人は必ずしも若年期に来日するわけではない。中高年になって来日し、そのまま永住に至るケースも少なくない。この場合、税・保険料の負担は十分なされないまま高齢期に入り、医療・介護サービスを1～3割負担（さらに高額療養費など）で受けることになる。「財政にプラス」になるかは疑わしい。 本稿では、外国人が高齢期まで日本で過ごすことを想定して、外国人受入れの財政への影響を推計し、そのうえで講ずべき方策を示す。第一節では推計の枠組み、第二節では分析のために想定する４タイプの外国人、第三節では各タイプの外国人に係る財政への貢献・負荷の推計を示し、第四節で、これに基づき講ずべき方策を示す。 結論を先に言うと、日本人の平均年収を下回る外国人の永住や、中高年になって来日した外国人の永住は、財政にマイナスとなる可能性が高い。 この観点で、現行の外国人受入れ時の制度には欠陥があり、以下の２つの方策を早急に講ずべきだ。 ・永住資格の付与は、日本人の平均年収以上の外国人に限るべきだ。一方、人手不足に対応した比較的低年収の外国人の受入れは、期間限定・家族帯同不可とすべきだ。 ・また、中高年になって来日する外国人には、平均的な医療・介護給付額の一括負担を求める制度を導入すべきだ。working pape

Why Do Europeans Save? Micro-Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey

We analyze the saving motives of European households using micro-data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey, which is conducted by the European Central Bank. We find that the rank ordering of saving motives differs greatly depending on what criterion is used to rank them. We find that the precautionary motive is the most important saving motive of European households when the proportion of households saving for each motive is used as the criterion to rank them but that the retirement motive is the most important saving motive of European households if the quantitative importance of each motive is taken into account. Moreover, the generosity of social safety nets seems to affect the importance of individual saving motives, with saving for the retirement motive being less important in countries with generous public pension benefits and saving for the precautionary motive being less important in countries with generous public health systems.working pape

Household Saving in Japan: The Past, Present, and Future

The primary objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of the level of, and trends over time in, Japan’s household saving rate, with emphasis on the impact of the age structure of the population, and to make projections about future trends therein. The paper finds that Japan’s household saving rate has not always been high either absolutely or relative to other countries, contrary to popular belief, and that, if we confine ourselves to the postwar period, it was only during the 25-year period from 1961 to 1986 that it exceeded 15%. Past and future trends in Japan’s household saving rate can largely be explained by changes in the age structure of her population, but declines in the saving rate of retired elderly households is a more important explanation for the recent decline in the household saving rate. However, it is likely that other factors such as the unavailability of consumer credit, the unavailability of social safety nets, high rates of economic (income) growth, tax breaks for saving, saving promotion policies, and high and rising land and housing prices are also partial explanations for why Japan’s aggregate household saving rate was so high during the 1961-86 period and why it declined so much subsequently. As for future trends in Japan’s aggregate household saving rate, it is likely to fall even further though not necessarily at a rapid rate.working pape

The Impact of Population Aging on the Household Saving Rate: The Case of Japan

This paper analyzes the impact of the age structure of the population on the household saving rate using time-series data for Japan for the 1955-2019 period. It finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between Japan’s household saving rate and her dependency ratio (the ratio of the dependent population to the working-age population) and that the latter has a negative and statistically significant impact on the former. This implies that the life-cycle model applies in the case of Japan, that trends over time in the age structure of Japan’s population can largely explain trends over time in Japan’s household saving rate, that the downward trend in Japan’s household saving rate since the mid-1970s can largely be explained by the aging of her population, and that further population aging will lead to further declines in Japan’s household saving rate, most likely into negative territory, in future years.working pape

北九州学術研究都市における留学生の地元就職促進策

北九州学術研究都市（以下、「学研都市」という）は、2001年4月に「アジアに開かれた学術研究都市」として、「新たな産業の創出・技術の高度化」を目指して、福岡県北九州市若松区にオープンした研究開発・産学連携拠点である。この学研都市では、北九州市立大学・大学院（公立）、九州工業大学大学院（国立）、早稲田大学大学院（私立）、福岡大学大学院（私立）が教育・研究活動を行っており、2024年6月現在、約800名の高水準の留学生（主に「環境技術」と「情報技術」を専攻する理工系の大学院生）が在籍している。 北九州市は、留学生のために奨学金の提供、キャンパスライフのサポート、就職の支援、など様々な支援活動を行っている。しかし、留学生の地元就職率は、期待したように伸びていない。地方財政が厳しくなっている中、留学生に対する公的な支援を続けるためには、留学生の地元就職率を高めることが求められている。 本調査研究プロジェクト（実施者：アジア成長研究所（AGI）研究部）は、北九州市産業経済局未来産業推進課の委託で、学研都市における留学生の卒業（修了）後の就職地選択行動に関するアンケート調査結果から、留学生の就職地選択行動の影響要因と地元就職の促進策を探るものである。この報告書は5節から構成される。次の第2節では、アンケート調査に参加した留学生の特徴を概観する。第3節ではこれら留学生の卒業後の就職地選択行動を考察する。第4節では留学生の就職地選択行動の影響要因を分析する。最後の第5節では、学研都市の留学生の地元就職の促進策を提案する。research repor

Building a Potemkin Village in Occupied China: Japan’s Wartime System of Linked Trade, 1939–43

The paper discusses the little-known exchange rate system of Japanese-occupied North China during the Second Sino-Japanese War, whereby exporters were given the right to import in the form of a piece of yellow paper, which could be sold in the secondary market. In an environment of rapid inflation where North China’s yuan was pegged to the Japanese yen and devaluation was not politically feasible, the system incentivized exports by allowing the exporters to offset their losses with the profits from selling goods imported, or the right to import goods, at the overvalued exchange rate. Following the start of the Pacific War, the system evolved to become a major scheme of facilitating trade between North and Central China under Japanese occupation. The paper, utilizing archived classified documents, reconstructs analytically how the system operated. Further, our analysis based on monthly average data confirms that the secondary market pricing of yellow paper broadly mimicked the operation of a flexible exchange rate. The system died a natural death when exploding inflation in Central China eliminated the export disincentive in North China.working pape

Spatial Dynamics of Air Pollution and Income in China

We examine the spatial distribution of air pollution, specifically PM2.5 levels, and income across 285 prefectural-level and above cities in China. Our analysis combines static spatial dependence techniques to identify clusters of high pollution (hot spots) and low pollution (cold spots), high lighting a strong negative relationship between income and air pollution, with wealthier regions typically enjoying better air quality. To deepen this understanding, we apply spatial Markov chains to evaluate whether regions are converging over time in terms of air pollution and income levels. This integrated approach not only uncovers spatial patterns but also tracks temporal dynamics, providing insights that can inform strategies to enhance public health, promote environmental equity, and improve overall quality of life.research repor

A NEW MODELING APPROACH TO HELP ADDRESS THE TRUMP TARIFFS

In this paper, we show that the existing models and descriptions of the transfer of capital between countries that are provided in international economics are inadequate because they fail to explain the causes of, or the consequences of, persistent trade imbalances and because the assumption that there is a world interest rate, r* at which all countries can theoretically lend or borrow is extremely misleading. Instead, we argue that a more fruitful modeling approach is to regard the world as consisting of a number of regions, each of which has a particular rate of return on capital, which is a function of the local marginal product of capital (MPK). We demonstrate that such a modeling approach can provide some additional insights into who gains and loses from persistent trade deficits and how this might be affected by the Trump Administration’s tariff policy.working pape

Distribution Characteristics of TikTok Vloggers in China and Their Influencing Factors: An Analysis at the Prefecture-Level Cities in China

Entrepreneurship is recognized as the engine of innovation and regional economic development, and the link between entrepreneurship and economic geography is well-established. However, it is uncertain whether this connection persists in the context of the digital economy. Despite the growing prevalence of online entrepreneurship in many countries, the field remains under-theorized and spatially blind. Particularly, studies on fully online entrepreneurs (FOEs) are still lacking. Vloggers, referring to ‘video bloggers’ who create and upload short videos on online platforms, are a typical group of FOEs. This study employs data on TikTok vloggers in Chinese prefecture-level cities in 2023 to unveil the characteristics and influencing factors of their distribution. The results underscore the positive impact of mobile phone user base, talent power, policy, and the negative impact of per capita GDP on the scale of vloggers in a city. This study also reveals that for the highly influential vloggers, the technology power, high quality amenities, and preferential policy are significantly correlated, while the impacts of the mobile phone user base and talent power become insignificant.research repor

The Development Situation of the Angel Investment Industry in Taiwan: A Case Study of Taipei Angels Investment

本研究は、台湾のエンジェル投資機関の先駆者的存在であるTaipei Angels Investment （ TA）の 事例分析を行い、それを通して同業界の発展状況を明らかにすることを課題とする。TAは2012年設立で、これまでに台湾のスタートアップ関連業界に対して、以下の 3 つの形で多大な貢献をしてきた。①多数のスタートアップへの投資・支援、②後続の同業者に対するロールモデルの提示、③スタートアップ育成機関・関連政策に対する投資家やメンター・専門家としての協力。TAの影響を受け、2010年代後半以降、多数のエンジェル投資機関が登場し、メンバー数や投資先企業数ではTAを上回るものも出てきている。これらの新興の機関の一部は、短期間でメンバーを急増させ、新入りのエンジェル投資家のために様々な学習と交流の機会を提供している。これら機関の活動の活発化を背景に、2010年代末以降、台湾のエンジェル投資が急増している。台湾のエンジェル投資業界は、ここ数年で勃興期入ったと考えられる。The purpose of this study is to analyze the case of Taipei Angels Investment (TA), a pioneer of angel investment institutions in Taiwan, and to clarify the development status of the angel investment industry through this analysis. TA was established in 2012 and has made significant contributions to Taiwan's startup-related industry in the following three ways: (1) Investing in and supporting a large number of startups, (2) Presenting a role model to subsequent peers, and (3) Cooperation as an investor, mentor, and expert to startup-supporting institutions and related policies. Under the influence of TA, many angel investment institutions have emerged since the latter half of the 2010s, and some have surpassed TA in terms of the number of members and portfolio companies. Some of these institutions have increased aggressively their members in a short period of time, providing a variety of learning and networking opportunities for new angel investors. Based on the increasing activity of these institutions, Taiwan's angel investment has increased rapidly since the end of the 2010s. Taiwan's angel investment industry seems to have entered the growth period in the past several years.working pape